Thursday, January 16, 2025

Mid-Day Trading Reflection: January 16, 2025 – Lessons from the Tactical Action

Summary of Trading Activity

Period Covered: January 14-16, 2025
Principal Portfolio Value: Php 15,000.00
Current Portfolio Value (Equity): Php 14,749.54
Realized Gain/Loss: Php -250.46
Number of Transactions: 12

The past three trading days provided valuable insights into how transaction costs and tactical trading decisions impact overall performance. Despite adhering to a structured trading plan, the effects of frequent re-entries and high trading costs eroded our capital efficiency. Below, we analyze these implications and outline recommendations for refining our approach.

A 5-minute trading chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) dated January 16, 2025, annotated with tactical exits at Php 69.80 and Php 71.50, tactical re-entries at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20, and a support level near Php 70.50. The chart shows a morning price surge, with moving averages and volume trends assisting in trade execution.

Annotated 5-minute chart of URC on January 16, 2025, highlighting tactical re-entries, exits, and key price levels. The chart reflects a morning rally following a tactical re-entry at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20, with key resistance and support levels marked for strategic decision-making.

Cost Implications and Capital Erosion Analysis

Transaction Costs Impact

Php 1.00 Break-Even Differential: The impact of transaction costs was more significant than anticipated. With 12 transactions executed, these costs eroded potential gains, limiting profitability.
Frequent buying and selling without substantial price movements led to excessive trading fees:
- Example: Selling 100 shares at Php 70.00 and re-buying at Php 70.85 or Php 71.20 increased costs rather than yielding profit.

Over-Trading

12 transactions in 3 days for a Php 15,000 portfolio is high-frequency trading, which is not suitable for a small-scale account.
Repeated tactical re-entries (e.g., multiple small buys on January 14 and re-entries on January 16) diluted capital efficiency instead of optimizing profits.
Effect: Instead of focusing on fewer, high-probability trades with larger price differentials, multiple entries and exits compounded transaction costs.

Capital Erosion from Unrealized Efficiency

Portfolio Impact: The Php -250.46 loss represents a 1.67% decline in equity in just two days.
Reasons for Erosion:
- Small price differentials between entries and exits did not offset the break-even costs.
- Tactical decisions did not fully account for transaction cost structures, leading to net losses instead of gains.

Key Observations and Lessons Learned

Frequent Re-Entries Add Little Value

On January 14, the portfolio executed seven buy transactions at different price points between Php 69.40 and Php 71.45.
Lesson: Consolidating these buys into fewer transactions at clear price zones (Php 70.00-Php 70.50) could have reduced costs and improved execution efficiency.

Inefficient Tactical Re-Entry

On January 16, two re-entry trades at Php 70.85 and Php 71.20 led to increased exposure at higher prices, despite limited upside potential given resistance near Php 71.50.
The subsequent tactical exit at Php 70.10 compounded losses, as the break-even cost differential could not be recovered.

Poor Reward-to-Cost Ratio

While tactical trades aimed for small gains, the actual cost of these transactions outweighed the potential rewards.
The small average price movement (Php 0.50-Php 1.00 per trade) did not justify the high trading frequency.

Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential

The planned stop-loss at Php 70.10 was not executed, exposing the position to further downside risk.
Lesson: Implement automated stop-loss orders to avoid missing critical exit points due to manual execution delays.
Lesson: Have contingency plans for rapid price movements to ensure immediate responses to market conditions.

Recommendations for Improvement

1. Focus on Fewer, High-Probability Trades

Action Plan:
- Reduce trade frequency and consolidate tactical entries into larger, well-timed positions.
- Example: Instead of multiple small buys on January 14, one or two larger buys at key support levels (Php 70.00 or Php 69.50) could reduce costs while maintaining exposure.

2. Widen Tactical Price Targets

Break-Even Costs:
- To offset the Php 1.00 transaction cost differential, trades must target price movements of Php 2.00 or more to be profitable.
Action Plan:
- Only execute trades where clear technical indicators (e.g., support/resistance breaks, volume spikes) signal potential for larger price movements.

3. Use Stop-Losses Strategically

Observation: The stop-loss at Php 70.10 on January 16 was necessary but ineffective due to execution delays.
Action Plan:
- Set stop-loss levels at key support points (e.g., Php 70.00 or Php 69.80).
- Avoid re-entering trades unless strong upward momentum is confirmed.

4. Prioritize Cost Efficiency

Observation: Transaction costs are disproportionately high relative to the portfolio size.
Action Plan:
- Reduce trade volume (focus on fewer but higher-quality trades).
- Explore cost-efficient brokers or strategies with lower break-even thresholds.
- Hold positions longer to minimize transaction costs.

5. Analyze Market Context Before Re-Entry

Observation: Re-entering at Php 71.20 after selling at Php 70.00 ignored the broader market trend and increased risk.
Action Plan:
- Re-enter only at key support levels with clear reversal signals (e.g., green candlesticks with strong volume).

Conclusion

The Php -250.46 loss reflects the impact of frequent tactical trades combined with transaction costs. While the strategy demonstrated discipline with stop-losses and tactical exits, it lacked efficiency in minimizing trading costs and maximizing price differentials.

Moving Forward:

Focus on fewer, high-quality trades with larger price targets.
Be mindful of transaction costs and consolidate tactical actions to preserve capital.
Maintain discipline with stop-losses and re-entries only when supported by strong market signals.

This experience reinforces the importance of balancing tactical agility with cost-consciousness to ensure sustainable portfolio growth. By refining our approach, we aim to enhance capital efficiency while maintaining a structured, disciplined trading plan for future trades.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

At Micro Stock Trader, we strictly adhere to technical analysis as the core of our trading strategy, and this approach remains unchanged as we continue to test and refine our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan. Interestingly, during Week 3 of our testing period, we observed a notable coincidence: the technical stop-loss level we identified near Php 68.00 closely aligns with the fundamental valuation level of Php 67.31, as presented by The Retail Fund Manager (TRFM) in his analysis of URC, based on available 3rd Quarter 2024 data.

Part of our scenario for Week 3 is the Breakdown Below Php77.07: We said that: "If the price breaks below support, it could retest the Php73.80 level. A breakdown below Php73.80 would invalidate the bullish outlook and require a defensive strategy."

Small Position Sizes: A Key Element in Managing Trading Risk

While our focus remains entirely on technical analysis, we found it noteworthy that a purely technical level coincides with a fundamental valuation from an independent source. This alignment provides an interesting benchmark but does not influence our decision-making process.

Representation of fundamental and technical analyses coincidentally aligning in their outcomes despite being independent approaches.

Independent methods, coincidentally aligned: Fundamental and technical analyses point to the same trading scenario.

Our Strictly Technical Approach

In our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we set a technical stop-loss slightly below Php 68.00 based on:

Key support levels observed on the daily chart and 5-minute chart.
The objective of cutting losses before a deeper decline during high-volatility sessions.

This level was identified solely through price action and market behavior—hallmarks of technical analysis. It just so happened that TRFM’s Php 67.31 valuation, derived from fundamental analysis, aligned closely with our stop-loss level, creating a coincidental but interesting point of reference.

TRFM’s Fundamental Valuation as a Benchmark

For context, TRFM provides the following fundamental valuation scenarios for URC based ending 3Q2024 results:

Php 74.10 for a flat growth scenario: URC’s fair value assuming modest growth.
Php 67.31 for a scenario indicating company weakness: A more conservative outlook based on weaker performance.
Php 60.00 something as the bargain price: A deeply discounted price indicating significant undervaluation.

We introduced TRFM’s valuation purely for benchmarking purposes. It provides an external perspective on what the stock might be worth based on fundamental factors. However, we do not incorporate fundamental analysis into our trading strategy, nor does it affect our technical decision-making.

URC (Universal Robina Corporation) Stock CRASHED and Will CRASH DEEPER? BUY The Dip NOW? by The Retail Fund Manager PH Channel, YouTube, https://youtu.be/G7tXQ477zHY?si=gijeabQrHKVKfkts

Coincidental Alignment: Php 68.00 and Php 67.31

Despite our adherence to technical analysis, the coincidence between our technical stop-loss level near Php 68.00 and TRFM’s fundamental valuation of Php 67.31 is noteworthy for two reasons:

Reinforces Our Confidence:
Even though our stop-loss was derived purely from technical signals, its alignment with a fundamental valuation adds an extra layer of confidence that we are managing risk effectively.
Provides an Interesting Benchmark:
While we remain technical traders, it’s useful to know that an independent fundamental valuation aligns with our technical analysis at a key level. This information, though not actionable for us, offers a broader context for our trades.

Executing Our Trading Plan

To test our strategy this week, we strictly adhered to our technical rules—entirely independent of any influence from fundamental analysis—and aimed to assess whether we could achieve a successful outcome despite heightened market volatility. Our approach was guided by the following rules:

Hard Stop-Loss at Php 67.75:
We set a hard stop-loss just below our technical support level of Php 68.00 to avoid endlessly adjusting it downward during a potential decline.
Profit Target at Php 73.50:
Our profit target was set at Php 73.50, a level identified through technical resistance analysis.

Key Takeaways

Strictly Technical Approach:
Our stop-loss and profit targets were derived entirely from technical analysis. The coincidence with TRFM’s fundamental valuation was purely incidental and did not influence our trading decisions.
Benchmarking Without Integration:
TRFM’s valuation serves as an external benchmark for comparison, but it does not form part of our strategy. We remain committed to technical analysis as the core of our approach.
Discipline in Execution:
By sticking to our hard stop-loss and profit target, we avoided emotional trading and ensured that our decisions were guided by predefined technical rules.

Final Thought

While we maintain a strictly technical trading strategy, recognizing external benchmarks can provide useful context. The coincidence between our technical stop-loss level of just below Php 68.00 and TRFM’s fundamental valuation of Php 67.31 was an interesting point of reference, but it did not affect our trading plan. We continue to focus on technical analysis, price action, and disciplined execution to guide our trades.

If you're interested in following our journey as we refine our trading strategy, stay tuned for more updates as we approach the end of Week 3!

Would you like to see additional analysis based on this week’s market activity? Let us know!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

BETA Trading Action Review – January 15, 2025: Tactical Exit Amid Volatility

In today’s trading session (January 15, 2025), we executed a tactical exit in our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) by selling 100 shares of URC at Php 70.00. This move represents nearly half of our total 210 URC shares, as part of our ongoing effort to refine our risk management approach in line with our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan. Here's a detailed review of today’s action, focusing on its alignment with our strategy and the lessons we learned.

Introducing BETA: Budget Ethical Trading Account for Live Strategy Testing

URC 5-minute chart on January 15, 2025, showing key tactical exit at Php 70.00, highlighting risk management and tactical position management strategies.

URC 5-Minute Chart (January 15, 2025): Tactical exit executed at Php 70.00 as part of disciplined risk management under the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.

Overview of Today’s Action

Action Taken:
We sold 100 shares of URC at Php 70.00, close to a critical support level. This tactical exit was made to reduce exposure during a volatile session while retaining flexibility for potential re-entries or further exits based on upcoming price action.
Remaining Position:
After this tactical exit, we retain 110 shares of URC in the BETA account. This ensures we remain partially exposed to any upward movement while minimizing downside risk.

Why This Was a Tactical Move

The decision to sell 100 shares at Php 70.00 was guided by our tactical position management strategy, which emphasizes:

Reducing exposure near key support levels when uncertainty is high.
Locking in value while retaining some shares for potential gains if the price rebounds.

By executing this tactical exit, we:

Reduced our exposure without fully exiting the position, ensuring flexibility for future trades.
Preserved capital while remaining engaged in the market to potentially benefit from a reversal or upward trend.

Alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss
Today’s action closely aligns with the updated Step 5 of our trading plan, which includes dynamic stop-loss monitoring. While we had a hard stop-loss set at Php 67.75, we opted for a tactical exit at Php 70.00—just above a critical support level—to minimize potential losses and maintain flexibility.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management
This tactical exit is a direct application of Step 9: Tactical Position Management, where partial exits are executed during periods of heightened volatility or when prices approach key levels. By selling part of our position, we adhered to our plan of staying agile and limiting downside exposure.

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan: Enhancing Risk Management and Flexibility

Lessons from Today’s Trading Action

Discipline and Execution Matter
We strictly followed our predefined strategy and executed the tactical exit at a critical level. This discipline ensures we remain consistent in our approach, avoiding emotional trading decisions.
Managing Volatility with Tactical Exits
By executing a partial exit rather than a full exit, we retained exposure for potential future gains while managing the risk associated with a volatile session.
Balancing Risk and Reward
Selling 100 shares allowed us to lock in partial value while still holding 110 shares, striking a balance between reducing risk and staying engaged in the market.

Next Steps

Monitor Key Levels:
We will closely observe the price action near Php 70.50 (potential tactical re-entry level) and Php 67.75 (hard stop-loss level).
Be Ready for Tactical Re-Entries or Further Exits:
If the price stabilizes or shows signs of upward momentum, we may consider re-entering a small tactical position. If the price continues downward toward Php 67.75, we are prepared for another tactical exit to protect the remaining position.

Final Thoughts

Today’s trading action highlights the importance of tactical position management in real-time trading. By executing a partial exit at a critical support level, we adhered to our strategy, managed risk effectively, and retained flexibility for future trades. This disciplined approach is a key element in our ongoing effort to refine and test the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan through our BETA account.

Stay tuned as we continue documenting our progress, including key lessons learned from this trading journey!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

At Micro Stock Trader, we continuously refine our strategies to improve our trading outcomes. One of the most significant steps in this process is updating our core strategy—now called the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan. This latest version incorporates new strategies for tactical position management and stop-loss monitoring, both of which were crucial lessons learned during our live testing period, particularly with our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA).

Introducing BETA: Budget Ethical Trading Account for Live Strategy Testing

This updated plan provides a structured approach to entering, managing, and exiting trades while ensuring flexibility during volatile market conditions.

Creating a focused trading environment is key to executing the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, emphasizing discipline, strategy, and continuous learning.

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Step 1: State
The first step involves identifying the current market phase (Up, Top, Down, or Bottom) and assessing whether the 20-MA and 200-MA are in a tight/narrow state or wide state.
Step 2: Position and Location
Evaluate whether the price is above or below the key moving averages and determine whether it’s near a critical support or resistance level.
Step 3: Assess Power Bars
Look for key price action signals such as green power bars or narrow-range bars, which could indicate potential breakouts or breakdowns.
Step 4: Entry
Enter a position when clear technical signals are present, such as breakouts above resistance or rebounds from support with strong volume confirmation.
Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss
This step now includes dynamic stop-loss monitoring:
- Place an initial stop loss at a logical technical level (e.g., below recent swing lows).
- Adjust the stop loss dynamically as the price moves in your favor.
- Use a hard stop-loss limit to avoid endlessly lowering your stop loss during downturns.
  This approach ensures disciplined risk management while allowing flexibility to protect gains.
Step 6: Color Change
Watch for a color change (e.g., from red to green candles) near key support or resistance levels to identify potential trend reversals.
Step 7: Profit Take (with Tactical Exits)
Introduced under this step is the tactical position management strategy, which recommends partial exits near key resistance levels or profit targets:
- Sell part of your position to lock in gains and reduce exposure while keeping a core position to benefit from further potential upside.
Step 8: Re-entry
Re-enter positions when clear signals indicate a continuation of the trend or after a pullback to support.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management
This new step formalizes tactical position management, a strategy designed to balance short-term volatility with long-term positioning:
- Use tactical exits to reduce risk during periods of high uncertainty or as the price nears key levels.
- Re-enter with small tactical positions when opportunities arise at critical levels.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries
Execute counter-trend trades only when specific conditions are met, such as multiple gap-downs or significant drops below the 200-MA. Use smaller position sizes and tighter stop losses for these trades to limit risk.

Journal Keeping – A Strong Suggestion

While not a formal step in the plan, tracking all trades in a journal remains an essential practice for every trader. By keeping a detailed record of trades—including entry and exit points, reasons for the trade, and outcomes—traders can identify patterns, improve decision-making, and refine their strategy over time.

Why This Modified Plan Works

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan introduces more flexibility and risk management tools, which are crucial in real-world trading where market conditions can change rapidly. By incorporating tactical position management and dynamic stop-loss monitoring, traders can stay engaged in the market while protecting their capital and maximizing opportunities.

Key benefits of this plan include:

Disciplined risk management through well-placed stop-losses and tactical exits.
Increased flexibility to handle both trending and volatile markets.
Improved adaptability by allowing tactical re-entries after partial exits.
Consistent learning through detailed trade tracking and review.

Final Thoughts

Our journey in refining this trading plan has been a valuable learning process. The addition of tactical position management and stop-loss monitoring ensures that we remain disciplined while adapting to ever-changing market conditions. As we continue testing and refining our strategies, we aim to build a robust approach that balances both risk and reward.

Stay tuned for more updates as we document our progress with the Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) and further improvements to the trading plan!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

As part of our ongoing refinement of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we have launched the Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). This account is dedicated to live-testing our trading strategies with a smaller, focused position. For the time being, we will set aside our primary account holding 1,500 shares of URC and shift our focus entirely to BETA, which starts with a manageable 210 shares of URC.

The purpose of BETA is to concentrate on the active trading aspect of our strategy while keeping our risk exposure minimal. With this account, we aim to continue exploring small position sizes, tactical entries, and core positions in a real-world trading environment.

Micro Stock Trader Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA).

Adjustments to Our Strategy for BETA

Given that BETA starts with 210 shares of URC, we have made the following adjustments to our position sizing and risk management strategy:

1. Position Sizing for BETA

Since the total number of shares in BETA is 210, we will scale our tactical and core positions accordingly:

Core Positions: 50% of trading shares → 100 shares
Core positions in BETA represent half of the total account and are used for medium-term trades when we have high confidence in a setup.
Tactical Entries: 10% of trading shares → 20 shares
Tactical entries are smaller, speculative trades used to test the market during uncertain periods or near potential reversal levels.

This scaling ensures that we maintain the same proportionate approach as in our main account, but with a smaller capital base.

Updated Trading Scenarios for BETA

Scenario 1: Testing Key Support Levels

If URC approaches a key support level, such as Php 70.50, we can:

Start with a tactical entry of 20 shares to test the market.
If the price holds and shows signs of upward momentum, we can add a core position of 100 shares, increasing our exposure as confidence in the setup grows.

Scenario 2: Profit-Taking at Resistance Levels

If URC reaches a significant resistance level, such as Php 73.50, we will:

Take partial profits by selling 50 shares, ensuring that we lock in gains while leaving some shares to ride further upside if momentum continues.
Use a trailing stop-loss for the remaining shares to protect profits while staying engaged in the trade.

Scenario 3: Stop-Loss Strategy

We will maintain a hard stop-loss at Php 67.75, similar to our primary account, to limit downside risk. If the price breaks below this level:

We will exit the entire position to preserve capital.
Tactical re-entry will only be considered if the price stabilizes and forms a new support level.

Why BETA Matters

BETA serves as a controlled environment where we can test real-time applications of our trading strategy with lower risk. This approach allows us to:

Focus on Execution:
With a smaller position, we can concentrate on fine-tuning our entry and exit strategies without the emotional burden of managing a large position.
Improve Tactical Decision-Making:
BETA helps us refine tactical entries and exits, especially during high-volatility sessions, ensuring that our strategy remains adaptable to different market conditions.
Document and Learn:
Every trade in BETA will be documented meticulously, allowing us to gather insights and lessons that can be applied to our primary account once the testing phase concludes.

Key Takeaways for BETA

Position sizing has been adjusted to fit the smaller scale of BETA, with 100 shares for core positions and 20 shares for tactical entries.
The hard stop-loss at Php 67.75 remains a critical part of our risk management strategy.
BETA allows us to stay committed to disciplined execution while reducing risk exposure.

Final Thought

By launching BETA, we reinforce our commitment to refining the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan through disciplined, real-world testing. This focused approach ensures that we continue learning and improving while keeping risk under control.

Stay tuned as we document our progress with BETA, sharing key trades, lessons learned, and further adjustments to our strategy!

Would you like to follow our BETA journey? Keep checking in for our latest updates as we put theory into practice!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

In active trading, managing position sizes is a critical element in controlling risk and navigating volatile market conditions. During our recent trades of URC, we refined our approach to position sizing, particularly focusing on tactical entries and core positions. Here's a breakdown of our recommendation for small position sizes, tailored to traders managing a 1,500-share position of URC.

URC 5-Minute Chart (January 14, 2025): Key levels for stop-loss adjustments, tactical entries, and partial profit-taking as part of refining our trading strategy.

Our Trading Context

At Micro Stock Trader, we currently hold 1,500 shares of URC, divided into two categories:

Long-term position: 900 shares set aside for long-term investment, held regardless of short-term market fluctuations.
Trading position: 600 shares allocated for short-term trading activities, where we actively engage in buying and selling based on our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.

This approach allows us to balance long-term growth with short-term opportunities, ensuring we preserve capital while staying agile in the market.

Position Sizing Strategy

Given that 600 shares are available for trading, we split them into smaller chunks to better manage risk and maximize flexibility. This ensures that we don’t overexpose ourselves to market volatility, especially during uncertain periods.

Core Positions

Size: 50% of trading shares (~300 shares)
Purpose:
Core positions are for medium-term trades where we have high conviction in the setup, such as a potential breakout or a confirmed reversal from a major support level.
When to Use:
Enter a core position near key technical levels where we expect a significant move. For example, if the price rebounds from a major support zone or breaks above a resistance level with strong volume, we commit to a larger core position.

Tactical Entries

Size: 10% of trading shares (~60 shares)
Purpose:
Tactical entries are smaller, speculative positions used when testing potential reversals or during volatile periods. They allow us to stay engaged in the market while minimizing risk.
When to Use:
Use tactical entries when the market is uncertain, such as near critical support or after multiple gap-downs, where a rebound may occur but hasn’t been confirmed.

Clarification: Managing an Existing Inventory of 600 Shares

Since we said that the 600 shares for trading are already owned and part of our portfolio, entering at a specific level like Php 70.50 becomes more about tactical position management rather than initiating new buys. Here’s how to handle this scenario:

Tactical Re-entry After Partial Selling
If the price approaches Php 70.50 during a downtrend, we shall consider selling a portion of our position ahead of that level (e.g., near Php 71.50 or Php 69.80) and re-entering at Php 70.50 if there’s a clear bounce or reversal. This approach allows us to reduce exposure during the downtrend and re-enter at a lower average cost.
Position Monitoring Without Additional Buying
If we decide to hold the full 600 shares, we shall treat Php 70.50 as a key monitoring level. If the price holds above this level, we maintain our position. If it breaks below Php 70.50, we adjust our stop-loss towards Php 67.75 to limit further downside risk.

Example Application of Small Position Sizes

Let’s illustrate how we would apply this strategy during a typical trading session:

Day 1:
URC’s price approaches a key support level near Php 70.50. Since we already own the 600 shares, we monitor this level closely. If the price holds, we maintain our position. On the other hand, if we haven't yet completed our 600-share allocation for URC, and the price approaches the key support level near Php 70.50, we can start with a tactical entry of 60 shares to test the market and stay engaged without significant risk. This approach involves actively trading around our core inventory by reducing our exposure during the downtrend and increasing it again once signs of a recovery emerge.
Day 2:
The price begins to stabilize and move upward. If we haven't yet completed our 600-share allocation for URC, we add a core position of 300 shares, increasing our exposure as the setup becomes more favorable. Otherwise, we treat Php 70.50 as a key monitoring level. If the price holds above this level, we maintain our position. However, if the price breaks below Php 70.50, we are prepared to implement our stop-loss strategy at Php 67.75 to limit potential losses.
Day 3:
If the price approaches our profit target (e.g., Php 73.50), we can either take partial profits or sell the entire core position while holding a small tactical position in case the uptrend continues.

Key Takeaways

Avoid Overexposure
By starting with smaller tactical entries, we limit risk during uncertain conditions. Only after the setup improves do we scale up with a larger core position.
Scale In Gradually
Instead of committing our entire trading position at once, we use a phased approach. Tactical entries allow us to manage uncertainty, and core positions help us capture larger moves once the trend is clearer.
Preserve Long-Term Holdings
Our 900-share long-term position remains untouched, ensuring that our short-term trading activities do not interfere with our broader investment goals.

Final Thought

Managing position sizes effectively is crucial for trading success, especially in a volatile market. By combining smaller tactical entries with larger core positions, we reduce risk, remain flexible, and position ourselves for potential gains without jeopardizing our portfolio.

Would you like to learn more about how we manage risk and position sizing as we refine our trading strategy? Stay tuned for more updates as we continue documenting our journey with the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience facade

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Pages

Thursday, January 16, 2025

Summary of Trading Activity

Cost Implications and Capital Erosion Analysis

Transaction Costs Impact

Over-Trading

Capital Erosion from Unrealized Efficiency

Key Observations and Lessons Learned

Frequent Re-Entries Add Little Value

Inefficient Tactical Re-Entry

Poor Reward-to-Cost Ratio

Strict Stop-Loss Execution Is Essential

Recommendations for Improvement

1. Focus on Fewer, High-Probability Trades

2. Widen Tactical Price Targets

3. Use Stop-Losses Strategically

4. Prioritize Cost Efficiency

5. Analyze Market Context Before Re-Entry

Conclusion

Moving Forward:

Related Readings

Contents:

Our Strictly Technical Approach

TRFM’s Fundamental Valuation as a Benchmark

Coincidental Alignment: Php 68.00 and Php 67.31

Executing Our Trading Plan

Key Takeaways

Final Thought

Related Readings

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Contents:

Overview of Today’s Action

Why This Was a Tactical Move

Alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Lessons from Today’s Trading Action

Next Steps

Final Thoughts

Related Readings

Contents:

The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Journal Keeping – A Strong Suggestion

Why This Modified Plan Works

Final Thoughts

Related Readings

Contents:

Adjustments to Our Strategy for BETA

1. Position Sizing for BETA

Updated Trading Scenarios for BETA

Scenario 1: Testing Key Support Levels

Scenario 2: Profit-Taking at Resistance Levels

Scenario 3: Stop-Loss Strategy

Why BETA Matters

Key Takeaways for BETA

Final Thought

Related Readings

Contents:

Our Trading Context

Position Sizing Strategy

Core Positions

Tactical Entries

Clarification: Managing an Existing Inventory of 600 Shares

Example Application of Small Position Sizes

Key Takeaways

Final Thought

Related Readings

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