Thursday, January 30, 2025

Stock Price Review: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Monthly Chart as of January 30, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) has experienced significant downside pressure, closing at ₱64.35, a massive -18.54% decline in the latest monthly session. The stock has broken through major long-term support levels, trading well below both the 20-month and 200-month moving averages, indicating a deep bearish trend. This review evaluates whether URC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Trade Details

  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Monthly Chart
  • Date: January 30, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱64.35
  • High: ₱83.95
  • Low: ₱64.15
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱106.00
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱113.69
  • Volume: 37.435M (elevated selling pressure)

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured assessment.

URC Monthly Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

URC Stock Price Review – Analyzing Buy or Sell Signals with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Monthly Chart as of January 30, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • URC is in a long-term confirmed downtrend, with price action significantly below the 20-month and 200-month MAs.
  • The breakdown from ₱100 to ₱64 signals extreme weakness, suggesting that investors have lost confidence in the stock.
  • Volume is elevated, indicating panic selling rather than controlled distribution.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – The trend is strongly bearish, and caution is warranted.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • URC has broken below critical long-term support levels, showing no immediate signs of stabilization.
  • The next potential support is in the ₱50-₱55 range, aligning with previous consolidation zones from 2013-2014.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – The stock must establish a base before considering long positions.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • The large red monthly candle suggests strong selling pressure, with no bullish reversal signals present.
  • The increase in volume confirms a capitulation event, but without reversal patterns, buying remains high-risk.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – There are no breakout signals or momentum shifts.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • There is no valid buy entry at current levels given the lack of a stabilization pattern.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – Confirmation of a bottoming structure is required before considering long entries.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss levels are difficult to define in free-fall conditions—traders should avoid attempting to catch the falling knife.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Holding positions without a clear support level is highly risky.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No green reversal candles or trend-shifting signals are present.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – Confirmation of buying interest is needed.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Traders still holding URC should consider reducing exposure while the trend remains bearish.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – Locking in losses before further downside is advisable.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • A re-entry should only be considered if price stabilizes above ₱70 with increasing volume.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION – No immediate re-entry is advised.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • New buyers should avoid full-sized positions until a bottom is confirmed.
  • Recommendation: HOLD CASH / WAIT – No need to take unnecessary risks in a weak market.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • A counter-trend trade can only be considered if a multi-month base forms with clear bullish reversals.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR A CONFIRMED TREND REVERSAL – The risk remains high for premature entries.

Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: SELL / WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Sell on any relief rallies or wait for a confirmed bottom before considering new buys.

✅ Risk Management: Avoid speculative entries while the long-term trend remains bearish.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Short-term traders should reduce exposure on any bounce toward ₱75-₱80.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Avoid aggressive buying until a trend reversal is confirmed.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Avoid buying until a strong bullish reversal pattern emerges.

🔹 Long-term investors → Consider waiting for stabilization before averaging down.

🔹 Existing holders → Should consider exiting positions or reducing exposure.

🚨 Final Thought: URC is in a deep bearish trend, and further downside is possible. Patience is key—wait for confirmation before entering new positions. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Stock Price Review: Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC) Daily Chart as of January 28, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC) has been in a strong uptrend, reaching a recent high of ₱36.50 before showing a slight pullback. The January 28, 2025 closing session reflects a price decrease of -0.55%, settling at ₱36.20. Our amended chart annotations now include key pullback levels (0%, 25%, 50%, and 100%), which provide crucial insights into SCC’s potential retracement zones. This review determines whether SCC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Trade Details

  • Stock: Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Date: January 28, 2025 (Closing Session)
  • Closing Price: ₱36.20
  • High: ₱36.40
  • Low: ₱36.10
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱35.34
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱33.02
  • Key Pullback Levels:
    • 0% Pullback (Resistance): ₱36.50
    • 25% Sweet Spot Pullback: ₱35.50
    • 50% Pullback (Stronger Support): ₱34.50
    • 100% Pullback (Major Support): ₱32.50

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured assessment.

SCC Daily Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

SCC Stock Price Review – Analyzing Buy or Sell Signals with the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Closing Daily Chart as of January 28, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • SCC remains in a strong uptrend, trading above both the 20-MA (₱35.34) and 200-MA (₱33.02).
  • The 20-MA is sloping upward, confirming continued bullish momentum.
  • The stock is now pulling back from ₱36.50, testing initial support zones.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – The trend remains bullish, with pullbacks offering re-entry opportunities.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • SCC is currently trading just below the 0% pullback level (₱36.50).
  • The first strong retracement zone is at ₱35.50 (25% sweet spot pullback), aligning with the 20-day MA.
  • The 50% pullback level (₱34.50) is a major support zone for potential bounce plays.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Buying near support levels presents better risk-reward.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • The last few candles indicate consolidation after a strong rally, suggesting profit-taking.
  • Volume remains strong at 1.114M, supporting continued market participation.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – A breakout above ₱36.50 with volume would confirm trend continuation.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • The best buy entry is near ₱35.50-₱35.00, aligning with the 25% pullback sweet spot.
  • A confirmed breakout above ₱36.50 with volume would signal further upside.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Enter near pullback levels or on breakout confirmation.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • A stop-loss should be placed below ₱34.50 (50% pullback level) to manage downside risk.
  • If the pullback extends to ₱32.50, reassessing the trend would be necessary.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Stop-loss placement is key for risk management.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No bearish reversal signals have appeared yet.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Monitor for any significant bearish candle formations.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Short-term traders can take partial profits near ₱38.00-₱39.00.
  • A full exit is recommended if price struggles to hold above ₱36.00.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Partial exits near resistance levels are advisable.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • If a breakout fails, a better re-entry zone would be around ₱34.50-₱35.00.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Avoid chasing if price struggles at resistance.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • Core position: 50% size at ₱35.00-₱35.50, if price holds above 20-MA.
  • Tactical add-on: 10% size above ₱36.50, if volume strengthens.
  • Recommendation: BUY / HOLD – Manage positions based on breakout strength.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trades should only be considered if SCC forms a clear reversal pattern.
  • Recommendation: STICK TO THE TREND – Trade only on trend continuation confirmation.

Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY / HOLD

✅ Recommendation: Buy near support at ₱35.50 (25% pullback), or on breakout above ₱36.50 with volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱34.50 to protect against downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target exits at ₱38.00-₱39.00 for short-term trades.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Enter moderate size, adding more only above ₱36.50 with volume confirmation.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Buy only if price holds ₱35.50 or breaks above ₱36.50 with strong volume. Target ₱38.00-₱39.00.

🔹 Long-term investors → Hold as long as ₱34.50 support remains intact.

🔹 Existing holders → Partial profit-taking recommended near ₱38.00-₱39.00.

🚨 Final Thought: SCC remains in a strong uptrend. Look for a confirmed breakout or buy on dips. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Stock Price Review: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) Daily Chart as of January 28, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) has been trading in a downtrend, with price action struggling to regain momentum above key moving averages. As of the January 28, 2025 closing session, ALLHC closed at ₱1.66, posting a +2.47% gain for the day. This review evaluates whether the stock presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Trade Details

  • Stock: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Date: January 28, 2025 (Closing Session)
  • Closing Price: ₱1.66
  • High: ₱1.67
  • Low: ₱1.62
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱1.67
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱1.88
  • Key Pullback Levels:
    • 100% Pullback: ₱1.77
    • 50% Pullback: ₱1.70
    • 0% Pullback: ₱1.62

This review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured assessment.

ALLHC Stock Price Review – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of January 28, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • ALLHC remains in a downtrend, trading below both the 20-day MA (₱1.67) and the 200-day MA (₱1.88).
  • The 20-MA is sloping downward, confirming persistent bearish pressure.
  • The price is attempting a bounce from support (₱1.62), but it remains below key resistance levels.
  • Recommendation: SELL / WAIT – A strong reversal signal is needed before considering long positions.

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • ALLHC is hovering near the 0% pullback level (₱1.62), which has served as support.
  • Key resistance levels ahead include ₱1.70 (50% pullback) and ₱1.77 (100% pullback).
  • Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT – If ₱1.62 holds and price reclaims ₱1.70, a recovery might be possible.

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • Today's green candle suggests a possible short-term rebound, but there is no strong breakout signal yet.
  • Volume remains low at 82K, indicating lack of aggressive buyer interest.
  • Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT – More volume is required to confirm strength.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • A buy signal will only be confirmed if ALLHC closes above ₱1.70 with strong volume.
  • A failure to hold ₱1.62 would trigger another downward move.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – Buying now is risky unless a stronger confirmation emerges.

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • If attempting a speculative counter-trend buy, a stop-loss should be placed below ₱1.60.
  • The risk-reward setup favors a move toward ₱1.77 (resistance) if the bounce sustains.
  • Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT – Only enter with a tight stop-loss.

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • The recent candles indicate mixed signals, with multiple wicks showing selling pressure near ₱1.67.
  • Recommendation: WAIT – A decisive bullish candle is needed.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Short-term traders should consider taking profits near ₱1.70 - ₱1.77.
  • A full exit is advisable if price struggles to hold above ₱1.70.
  • Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT – Partial exits near resistance are ideal.

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • If a breakout fails, a better re-entry zone would be around ₱1.55-₱1.60.
  • Recommendation: WAIT FOR A DIP IF NO BREAKOUT OCCURS – Avoid buying prematurely.

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • Core position: 50% size at ₱1.62-1.65, if a bullish follow-through occurs.
  • Tactical add-on: 10% size above ₱1.70, if volume strengthens.
  • Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT – Conservative traders should wait for confirmation.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Counter-trend trades should only be considered if ALLHC forms a clear double bottom or reclaims ₱1.70 with strong volume.
  • Recommendation: STICK TO THE TREND – Avoid counter-trend trades without confirmation.

Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT

✅ Recommendation: Hold if already positioned, but avoid new buys unless ALLHC reclaims ₱1.70 with volume.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱1.60 to limit downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target exits at ₱1.70 - ₱1.77 for short-term trades.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Avoid aggressive buying until a clear breakout above ₱1.70 is confirmed.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Buy only if price clears ₱1.70 with strong volume. Target ₱1.77.

🔹 Long-term investors → Hold as long as ₱1.60 support remains intact.

🔹 Existing holders → Partial profit-taking recommended near ₱1.77.

🚨 Final Thought: ALLHC remains in a weak downtrend. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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