Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Stock Price Review: RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) Daily Chart as of January 27, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  1. Introduction
  2. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  3. Final Stock Recommendation
  4. Next Steps

Introduction

RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) is a key player in the Philippine REIT market, offering investors exposure to a diversified portfolio of income-generating commercial properties. This stock price review assesses its daily chart as of January 27, 2025, using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether it's a buy, sell, or hold.

Trade Details

  • Stock: RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR)
  • Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
  • Timeframe: Daily Chart
  • Date: January 28, 2025
  • Closing Price: ₱5.99
  • High: ₱6.03
  • Low: ₱5.99
  • 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱5.92
  • 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱5.62

Key Pullback Levels:

  • 100% (Recent High): ₱6.26
  • 75% Pullback: ₱6.12
  • 66% Pullback: ₱6.07
  • 50% Pullback: ₱5.98
  • 33% Pullback: ₱5.89
  • 0% Pullback (Major Support): ₱5.70

This analysis follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for a structured and comprehensive evaluation.

RCR Daily Chart with technical indicators and retracement levels

RCR Stock Price Review – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of January 27, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Market State & Trend Context

  • Market State: RCR is in a consolidation phase, with the price fluctuating within a range of ₱5.70 - ₱6.26 over the past few months.
  • Trend Context: The 20-MA (₱5.92) is currently above the 200-MA (₱5.62), indicating a bullish bias.

✅ Recommendation: Hold/Watch for Breakout Confirmation

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • Price is above the 200-MA, confirming an overall uptrend.
  • Current price (₱5.99) is at the 50% retracement level (₱5.98)—a key pivot zone for trend continuation or rejection.

✅ Recommendation: Hold/Buy on Confirmation of Breakout Above ₱6.00

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • The price has been consolidating near resistance with gradual volume increase (1.782M shares traded today).
  • Breakout potential above ₱6.00, but needs stronger volume confirmation.

✅ Recommendation: Buy on Breakout Above ₱6.00 with Strong Volume

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • A breakout above ₱6.00 with high volume would confirm strength.
  • If rejected, expect a retest of support near ₱5.85 - ₱5.92.

✅ Recommendation: Buy Above ₱6.00 or Wait for Pullback to ₱5.85-₱5.92

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below ₱5.85 (recent minor support).
  • Conservative Stop-Loss: Below ₱5.70 (major support).

✅ Recommendation: Set Stop-Loss at ₱5.85 (Aggressive) or ₱5.70 (Conservative)

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • The candlestick formation is bullish, with higher lows and closes above the 20-MA.
  • A green power bar closing above ₱6.00 would confirm an uptrend.

✅ Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation Above ₱6.00

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • First Target: ₱6.12 (75% retracement).
  • Second Target: ₱6.26 (Recent High).

✅ Recommendation: Take Partial Profits at ₱6.12, Full Exit at ₱6.26

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Re-enter at ₱5.85-₱5.92 if the pullback holds.
  • If ₱5.70 breaks down, avoid re-entry.

✅ Recommendation: Re-enter on Dip at ₱5.85-₱5.92

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments (Position Sizing Strategy)

  • Core Position: 50% at ₱6.00 breakout.
  • Tactical Entry: Additional 10-20% on confirmation above ₱6.12.

✅ Recommendation: Start with 50% Position, Add on Strength

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • No counter-trend trade unless a major breakdown below ₱5.70 occurs.

🚫 Recommendation: No Counter-Trend Trading for Now

Final Stock Recommendation

✅ Final Trade Recommendation: BUY on Breakout Above ₱6.00

✅ Recommendation: Buy at ₱6.00+ if volume confirms breakout.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱5.85 (Aggressive) or ₱5.70 (Conservative).

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Take partial profits at ₱6.12, full exit at ₱6.26.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with 50%, add more if price stabilizes above ₱6.12.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for confirmation above ₱6.00 before entering.

🔹 Long-term investors → Consider accumulating near ₱5.85-₱5.92 for better risk-reward.

🔹 Existing holders → Hold as long as price stays above ₱5.85.

🚨 Final Thought: A breakout above ₱6.00 is the key trigger. Volume confirmation is essential before committing to a full position. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 9 – Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 9/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)
  • Signal: Price testing key support at ₱6.95 near 50% pullback level
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: 500 out of 900 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱6.95
  • Position Size: 56% Allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Price is testing key support at ₱6.80-₱7.00 (retracement zone).
  • 50% pullback level at ₱7.04 was breached, bringing price close to the 0% pullback zone at ₱6.80.
  • Trend remains bearish, as price is below the 20-MA (₱7.68) and 200-MA (₱9.79).
  • Volume surged to 4.528M, indicating significant trading activity.
MONDE Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 9/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MONDE remains in a downtrend, with price below both moving averages.
  • Attempted stabilization near ₱7.00, but selling pressure remains strong.
  • Needs a strong bounce above ₱7.10 to confirm support.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry near ₱6.95 aligns with key support and pullback levels.
  • However, the stock is below both moving averages, meaning upside remains limited.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • Recent candles lack strong green power bars, indicating weak momentum.
  • Price struggling to hold support, raising the risk of further downside.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligns with retracement structure, but confirmation is needed above ₱7.00-₱7.10.
  • Break below ₱6.80 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱6.80 to control downside risk.
  • A break below this level would weaken the trade significantly.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish reversal pattern yet.
  • A green candle above ₱7.10 would validate a potential recovery.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱7.28 (100% pullback zone).
  • Final target: ₱7.68 (20-MA resistance level).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • Re-entry near support at ₱6.95 aligns with the strategy.
  • A bounce above ₱7.10 would confirm strength for scaling up.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 56% of the position has been deployed, leaving room for scaling up.
  • Further additions should be made only above ₱7.10-₱7.28.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but entry in a bearish trend requires caution.
  • Failure to hold ₱6.80 invalidates the setup and necessitates an exit.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 67/100
📌 Summary: The entry aligns with support, but confirmation above ₱7.10-₱7.28 is needed to maintain bullish bias.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.7/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned near key support level, aligning with re-entry criteria.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱6.80 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱7.28, scaling out at ₱7.68.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 56% Allocation, leaving room for re-entries or scaling up.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱7.10-₱7.28. If MONDE holds this level, consider scaling up.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱6.80. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱6.80.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱6.80 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 9 remains valid with moderate conviction, but confirmation of strength above ₱7.10 is critical for a successful outcome. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 8 – Manila Electric Company (MER)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 8/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Tactical Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price near 50% retracement support (₱476.85)
  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Shares Bought: 10 out of 20 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱475.00
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

MER Trade No. 8/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 6/10

  • Market phase: MER is in a range-bound phase between ₱450.20 (support) and ₱503.50 (resistance).
  • Trend: Short-term bearish after failing to hold above the 20-MA.
  • Structure: A breakdown below the 50% retracement (₱476.85) suggests further downside risk.
    ✅ Verdict: Moderate risk – Needs recovery above ₱476.85 to confirm strength.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Price is below the 20-MA (₱485.86), indicating short-term weakness.
  • Price is near the 50% retracement level (₱476.85), a key support zone.
    ✅ Verdict: Good support test, but trend bias remains weak.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 5/10

  • Today’s red candle shows selling pressure.
  • No strong green bar confirming support yet.
    ✅ Verdict: Weak confirmation – entry is speculative.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱475.00 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱476.85).
  • Price action stability is uncertain—failure to hold may lead to ₱450.20.
    ✅ Verdict: Decent entry point, but further weakness is possible.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱472.00 (previous low).
  • Limits downside risk while allowing minor fluctuations.
    ✅ Verdict: Good risk management—tight stop placement.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 5/10

  • No bullish reversal candle yet.
  • A green close above ₱476.85 is needed to confirm entry validity.
    ✅ Verdict: No confirmation—entry remains speculative.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

  • Target 1: ₱485.86 (20-MA).
  • Target 2: ₱503.50 (previous resistance).
    ✅ Verdict: Profit-taking levels align with resistance zones.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

  • Possible re-entry at ₱450.20 if support fails.
  • Adding exposure above ₱485.86 remains an option.
    ✅ Verdict: Opportunities exist but require confirmation.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 6/10

  • Half allocation used, keeping room for adjustments.
  • Adding the remaining 10 shares only if ₱476.85 holds.
    ✅ Verdict: Position sizing is cautious but speculative.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 8/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade yet, but failure below ₱472.00 could lead to a deeper pullback.
    ✅ Verdict: Risk is manageable, but caution is needed.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.8/10 (Moderate Risk)

✅ Trade Execution: The entry at ₱475.00 is aligned with key retracement levels but lacks strong bullish confirmation.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱472.00 ensures a controlled downside.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱485.86, scaling out at ₱503.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, leaving flexibility for further adjustments.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱476.85. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱472.00. If price fails to hold support, consider exiting earlier.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱450.20, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.

🚨 Final Thought: MER’s price action remains uncertain, with a need for a strong green candle above ₱476.85 to validate this entry. If support fails, expect a retest of ₱450.20. Trade cautiously. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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