Wednesday, February 5, 2025

MONDE Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry from Early Reversal Attempt
  • Signal: Breakout Above Recent Support with Strong Green Bar
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: Last 500 out of 1200 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱7.79
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: MONDE posted a strong +8.06% gain, closing at ₱7.78 with a volume surge of 13.978M shares, showing renewed interest and an early reversal signal.
  • The price is now above ₱7.50 and approaching the 20-MA (₱7.28), a critical short-term resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱9.67) remains well above, indicating that MONDE is still in a longer-term downtrend.
  • Monthly Chart: The price action shows a potential bottoming attempt, with MONDE bouncing from multi-year lows. However, the 20-MA (₱9.12) remains a key resistance level.
MONDE stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

MONDE stock price daily chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • MONDE is in a long-term downtrend but has shown strong signs of a short-term bottom.
  • A recovery attempt is underway, but confirmation is needed above ₱8.00-₱8.50.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Price is now trading slightly above key support levels but remains under major resistance zones (₱8.50-₱9.00).
  • Break above ₱8.00 would confirm a short-term bullish structure.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle with increasing volume confirms buying pressure.
  • A close above ₱7.80 signals continuation potential.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry aligns with a bullish move past recent support.
  • A break above ₱8.00-₱8.50 would further validate bullish momentum.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A deeper pullback below ₱7.30 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱8.00 for stronger validation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱8.50 (next major resistance).
  • Final target: ₱9.50-₱10.00 (longer-term retracement zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱7.60-₱7.70 could offer another entry opportunity.
  • Breakout above ₱8.00-₱8.50 justifies adding more exposure.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱8.50 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱7.50 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱8.50 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱7.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱8.50, scaling out at ₱9.50-₱10.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱8.00-₱8.50. If MONDE holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱7.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱7.60 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱8.50 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱7.50 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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URC Trade Evaluation: Trade No. 5/20 – Phase 2 Live Testing Review & Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Performance (Feb 5, 2025)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: February 5, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Short-Term Reversal Attempt at Multi-Year Lows (Monthly Chart)
  • Signal: Strong bullish momentum with increasing volume
  • Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
  • Shares Bought: Last 20 out of 70 shares allocated (completing full position)
  • Entry Price: ₱61.65
  • Position Size: Full allocation completed

📌 Chart Overview:

  • Daily Chart: URC posted a strong green candle, closing at ₱61.65 (+6.38%), showing initial recovery from oversold conditions.
  • Volume surged to 3.506M, confirming renewed interest in the stock.
  • The 20-MA (₱68.15) remains above, serving as the first resistance level.
  • The 200-MA (₱95.74) remains significantly above, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish.
  • Monthly Chart: URC is at a multi-year low, indicating potential mean reversion if a sustained rally occurs.

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Monthly Chart

URC stock price monthly chart analysis for live testing under Hybrid 10-Step Strategy as of February 5, 2025.

URC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Daily Chart

Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • URC is in a long-term downtrend but has shown a strong daily recovery.
  • First signs of reversal appear, but confirmation is needed above ₱65.00-₱68.00.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Price is still below both the 20-MA (₱68.15) and 200-MA (₱95.74), meaning bearish pressure persists.
  • Entry near ₱61.65 aligns with short-term retracement potential, but resistance remains overhead.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong green candle on high volume suggests a potential shift in momentum.
  • If price can hold above ₱60.00, a higher low structure may form.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry at ₱61.65 aligns with the daily green candle confirmation.
  • A break above ₱65.00-₱68.00 would confirm a bullish continuation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • A breakdown below ₱57.50 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Bullish price action with strong volume confirms upward momentum.
  • Needs continuation above ₱63.00-₱65.00 to further confirm.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱68.00 (20-MA resistance).
  • Final target: ₱75.00-₱80.00 (next major resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A pullback to ₱60.50-₱61.00 could offer another entry.
  • Breakout above ₱65.00 justifies scaling further into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Full allocation deployed, limiting further scaling.
  • Risk management is crucial near resistance levels.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱68.00 resistance.
  • Failure to hold ₱60.00 could lead to further downside.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 79/100

📌 Summary: Trade was well-executed based on momentum confirmation, but resistance near ₱68.00 must be monitored.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.9/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with short-term trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱58.50 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱68.00, scaling out at ₱75.00-₱80.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: Full allocation, requiring strict risk management.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱65.00-₱68.00. If URC holds this level, consider holding the position for further gains.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱60.00. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and adjust stop-loss accordingly.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If URC retests ₱60.50 and holds, consider adding more exposure in future setups.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains strong, with a bullish outlook. A move above ₱68.00 would confirm further upside, while a break below ₱60.00 would require caution. 🚨

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Summary of the Chronological Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy (January 16, 2025 – February 2025)

Contents:

  • Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy
  • Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks
  • Major Refinements
  • How These Refinements Prepared Us
  • Recommendations for February 2025
  • Conclusion

Since January 16, 2025, our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy has undergone significant refinements based on live testing through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). Initially, we focused on single-stock execution using daily charts, but as our understanding deepened, we expanded the approach to multiple stocks and incorporated monthly charts for broader trend confirmation.

Chart depicting the evolution of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy with key trading adjustments and portfolio refinements

 Evolution of Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Key Refinements and Live Trading Insights


Phase 1: Initial Testing of the Strategy (January 16 – January 21, 2025)

  • We started with URC as the primary test stock, refining entry and exit strategies using our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.
  • Trading frequency was limited to one entry and exit per week, avoiding overtrading and excessive transaction costs.
  • Entries were strictly based on daily charts, with stop-loss discipline introduced early.
  • Tactical entries were balanced against core positions to enhance execution and minimize risk.

Phase 2: Expanding to Multiple Stocks (January 21 – February 2025)

  • January 21, 2025: Completed Phase 1, after exiting URC due to price weakness, highlighting the importance of disciplined execution.
  • January 23, 2025: Began testing multiple stocks (URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR) while applying the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy for trade evaluations.
  • January 24, 2025: Conducted our first trade evaluation (URC – Trade No. 3), reinforcing the importance of volume confirmation and trade rating assessments.
  • January 31, 2025: Implemented a BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to refine position sizing and sector diversification.

Major Refinements to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

As our live testing evolved, we made key adjustments that prepared us for the portfolio-wide rebalancing on January 31, 2025:

  1. Shift from Single-Stock Testing to Portfolio-Wide Application

    • Initially, we tested the strategy on URC alone but later expanded to 11 stocks, requiring a new way of assessing trade performance.
    • New Rule: Live testing must now include at least 20 trades per stock rather than 20 trades overall.

  2. Integration of Monthly Charts for Long-Term Trend Confirmation

    • While the daily chart remains useful for tactical adjustments, we realized that monthly charts provide a more reliable trend context.
    • New Rule: Monthly charts are now our primary timeframe, while daily charts are used for monitoring daily volume trends and short-term setups.

  3. Emphasis on Dynamic Stop-Loss Adjustments

    • Early on, we found that rigid stop-losses were too restrictive, leading to premature exits.
    • New Rule: Implement a hybrid approach with hard stop-losses for deep protection and dynamic stop-losses for trade flexibility.

  4. Stronger Trade Evaluation Metrics & Risk-Reward Adjustments

    • By January 24, 2025, we introduced trade rating scores (6.6–8.8 out of 10) to assess entry logic, risk management, and trade execution.
    • New Rule: Trades must have a minimum 7/10 rating before execution to ensure quality setups.

  5. Portfolio-Wide Adjustments & Tactical Rebalancing (January 31, 2025)

    • The market's high volatility necessitated reallocating capital across multiple stocks to reduce single-stock exposure.
    • New Rule: Implemented BETA Portfolio Rebalancing to increase diversification and avoid concentration risk.

How These Refinements Prepared Us for the January 31, 2025 Portfolio Rebalancing

Our gradual refinement of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy ensured that we were well-positioned to handle the market conditions leading up to January 31, 2025:

  1. Portfolio Expansion Decision

    • Our realization that 20 trades were insufficient for a true strategy evaluation led us to extend testing to 20 trades per stock.
    • This allowed us to apply the strategy across different market conditions and stock types, avoiding a biased assessment.

  2. Risk Control & Dynamic Trade Adjustments

    • The introduction of dynamic stop-losses and volume confirmation helped us exit positions at the right time, minimizing losses.
    • The new rule of waiting for volume-backed breakouts saved us from premature entries.

  3. Emphasis on Higher-Quality Trade Setups

    • The 7/10 trade rating threshold ensured that we only executed high-probability trades, reducing unnecessary risks.
    • This forced us to maintain discipline, even when multiple stocks showed potential but lacked sufficient confirmation.

  4. Strategic Portfolio Rebalancing

    • By January 31, 2025, we had a clearer understanding of which stocks aligned best with our trading approach.
    • This led to rebalancing our BETA portfolio, ensuring that we had the right mix of core holdings and tactical trades.

Recommendations for February 2025

With our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy now optimized for live market conditions, our next steps focus on further refinement and disciplined execution:

1. Execute the 20-Trade Per Stock Rule

  • Our testing must now be expanded to at least 20 trades per stock, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation.
  • This will allow us to compare performance across different stocks and market conditions.

2. Strengthen Monthly Chart Implementation

  • While the daily chart remains important, our primary trading decisions will now be based on monthly charts.
  • This will filter out short-term noise and focus on broader trend movements.

3. Enhance Volume Analysis for Entry & Exit Decisions

  • No trade should be executed without volume confirmation supporting the setup.
  • Institutional selling pressure must be considered before entering any trade.
  • New Rule: We shall only enter breakouts with above-average volume, ensuring institutional support.

4. Maintain Disciplined Execution & Trade Rating System

  • We must continue using the 7/10 trade rating system to ensure that only high-quality trades are executed.
  • No deviation from the strategy is allowed—absolute discipline is required.

5. Adapt to Market Conditions & Adjust Position Sizing

  • Given the volatility observed in January 2025, February’s market conditions must dictate position sizes.
  • New Rule: Core positions should remain steady, but tactical entries should be adjusted based on risk-reward ratios.

Conclusion

With the lessons learned from January 2025, we are entering February 2025 with a fully refined version of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. The decision to expand testing to 20 trades per stock, focus on monthly charts, and strictly enforce volume-backed breakouts ensures that we execute our trades with absolute discipline.

Our next goal is to execute a minimum of 20 trades per stock with full adherence to the strategy. After completing this expanded live testing, we will conduct a final performance review to determine the overall effectiveness of the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

🚀 February 2025 marks the next evolution of our trading journey. The strategy is set—now, it’s all about disciplined execution. 🚀

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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