Thursday, January 23, 2025

RCR (RL Commercial REIT Inc.) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Contents:

Overview

  • Overview
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Analysis
  • Conclusion

RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) is showing bullish consolidation, trading above both the 20-day (5.88) and 200-day (5.60) moving averages. The price is attempting to break out from the 5.98 resistance level, with 6.00 - 6.10 acting as a crucial barrier for further upside. If RCR manages to break 6.00 with strong volume, the next potential target would be 6.20 - 6.30. However, failure to hold above 5.88 could lead to a retracement towards the 5.75 - 5.60 support zone, making it essential to watch for breakout confirmation before entering long positions.

Technical chart of RCR on January 22, 2025, displaying moving averages, price trends, and volume indicators.

RCR’s January 22, 2025, daily chart is testing the 6.00 resistance, with bullish momentum supported by the 20-MA and 200-MA.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

RCR appears to be in a consolidation phase following an uptrend:

  • The 200-day moving average (5.60) is trending upwards, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
  • The 20-day moving average (5.88) is acting as near-term support, keeping the price in a stable range.
  • The stock is currently trading at 5.98, slightly above both moving averages, which favors a bullish bias.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

  • The price is above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, a bullish signal.
  • Key resistance lies at 6.00 - 6.10, where previous price action has seen selling pressure.
  • Support is forming at 5.85 - 5.88, with additional support at 5.60 (200-MA).
  • If price breaks 6.00 with strong volume, a continuation towards 6.20 - 6.30 could be expected.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

  • The stock has built a base around 5.80 - 5.90, indicating buyers are absorbing supply.
  • The recent move toward 6.00 suggests increasing bullish momentum.
  • A green power bar closing above 6.00 with strong volume would confirm a bullish breakout.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

  • Long trades should be considered on a breakout above 6.00, with confirmation from higher-than-average volume.
  • Short trades could be taken if price rejects 6.00 - 6.10, signaling resistance remains strong.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

  • For longs, a stop-loss at 5.85 ensures risk management.
  • For shorts, stop-loss should be placed above 6.10, where a breakout would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

  • A strong green candle above 6.00 would indicate a confirmed breakout.
  • If price turns red near 6.00, a rejection scenario could develop.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

  • For longs, profit-taking could be set at 6.10 - 6.20, with potential for higher targets if momentum sustains.
  • For shorts, taking profits around 5.85 - 5.75 would be ideal.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

  • A pullback to 5.85 with support confirmation could be a good buying opportunity.
  • A failed breakout at 6.00 could offer a short trade re-entry.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

  • For bullish trades, position sizing can be increased above 6.00 with confirmation.
  • For bearish trades, short exposure can be managed cautiously if resistance holds.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

  • A counter-trend short position can only be justified if 6.00 - 6.10 rejection is clear.
  • Otherwise, the bullish trend remains intact, favoring long positions on dips.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of RCR shows a potential breakout above 6.00, with strong bullish positioning above both moving averages.

  • A breakout beyond 6.00 with volume would confirm a bullish continuation.
  • If price fails at 6.00, expect a retracement to 5.85 - 5.88 for re-entry.
    Traders should monitor 6.00 closely for breakout confirmation.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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URC (Universal Robina Corporation) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Contents:

  • Overview
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Analysis
  • Conclusion

Overview

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with price continuing to make lower highs and lower lows. The stock is trading well below both the 20-day moving average (74.90) and the 200-day moving average (97.59), confirming sustained bearish momentum. Resistance at 75.00 remains a critical hurdle, while support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00. Recent red power bars and increased volume indicate persistent selling pressure, suggesting further downside risk. While a short-term bounce is possible, long positions should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish signal above 64.00. Until then, short trades remain the preferred strategy, with potential downside targets at 60.00 - 58.00. resistance.

Technical chart of URC on January 22, 2025, displaying moving averages, price trends, and volume indicators.

URC’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, with key resistance at 75.00 and support forming around 60.00.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with the price making lower highs and lower lows:

  • The 200-day moving average (97.59) is sloping downward, confirming a long-term bearish trend.
  • The 20-day moving average (74.90) is also trending lower, acting as a dynamic resistance level.
  • The stock is currently trading at 64.50, well below both moving averages, reinforcing the bearish market structure.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

  • The price is positioned far below both moving averages, indicating significant selling pressure.
  • Major resistance is at 75.00, aligning with the 20-MA rejection zone.
  • Support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00, which could act as a short-term stabilization area.
  • If price continues to break down, the next major support zone is around 58.00 - 60.00.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

  • The recent trading sessions show strong red power bars, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
  • Volume has increased, suggesting active selling pressure rather than a lack of liquidity.
  • No strong green power bars have emerged yet, meaning buying interest remains weak.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

  • Short entries remain viable, especially if the stock retests and rejects 70.00 - 75.00.
  • Long trades should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish pattern above 64.00.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

  • For shorts, a stop-loss should be placed above 75.00, where a break could signal trend exhaustion.
  • For longs, a stop-loss at 60.00 ensures protection against further downside risk.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

  • The last few candles remain red, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.
  • A color change to green near 64.00 - 60.00 would suggest a potential bottoming formation.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

  • For shorts, profit-taking should be considered at 60.00 - 58.00, where some buying support might appear.
  • For longs, an exit near 70.00 - 75.00 would be reasonable given the downtrend resistance zones.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

  • If price rebounds from 60.00, a secondary long entry could be considered.
  • A failed breakout at 70.00 could present a short re-entry opportunity.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

  • Short positions should be favored, with sizing adjusted based on retracement strength.
  • If price bounces with strong volume, scaling into a small long position may be justified.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

  • A counter-trend long is only valid if the stock reclaims 66.00 with strength.
  • Otherwise, following the primary downtrend remains the safer strategy.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of URC reinforces a strong downtrend, with resistance at 75.00 and support at 60.00.

  • Short positions remain favorable, especially below 70.00.
  • Long positions require confirmation, preferably with a strong green power bar and volume surge.
    Traders should remain cautious and wait for trend confirmation before making directional trades.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Evaluating RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR): Retracement Strategy as of January 21, 2025

Contents:

  • Retracement Perspective: Understanding the Power Move
  • Retracement Levels and Probabilities
  • Confirmation Signals to Watch
  • Trading Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation
  • Conclusion

As of January 21, 2025, RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) closed at ₱5.94, which represents the 41% retracement level of a prior downward power move (from ₱6.29 to ₱5.70). Using the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy, we aim to determine whether this is the right time to buy, sell, or hold.

RL Commercial REIT daily chart showing retracement levels and current price at ₱5.94.

RL Commercial REIT Inc. at 41% retracement after a downward move, January 21, 2025.


Retracement Perspective: Understanding the Power Move

  • Power Move: The downward movement that originated at ₱6.29 (100% retracement) and ended at ₱5.70 (0% retracement). This marks the start and end of the price decline.
  • Current Position: The price at ₱5.94 has retraced 41% upward from the low of ₱5.70.
  • Focus: As a trader focused on buying in upward setups (not shorting), the goal is to find confirmation that the price will reverse upward beyond the 55%-75% retracement zone, with a potential move back to ₱6.29 (100% retracement).

Retracement Levels and Probabilities

  1. Zone 1 (0%-33%) – Shallow Bounce with Weak Recovery Potential (₱5.70-₱5.89)

    • Current Price: ₱5.94 (41% retracement level).
    • Probability of Upward Continuation: Moderate. The price has rebounded from ₱5.70 but remains below the critical reversal zone (55%-75%). A shallow bounce often lacks the strength needed for a sustained move higher.
    • Trading Action: Wait for further confirmation of momentum and strength before adding positions. Entering too early may expose traders to a possible pullback.

  2. Zone 2 (33%-66%) – Deeper Bounce with Improving Reversal Potential (₱5.89-₱6.09)

    • This range partly overlaps with the Sweet Spot (55%-75%), which is the optimal reversal zone.
    • Probability of Reversal: 60%-90%. If the price enters this zone and shows strong volume and bullish candlestick confirmation, it increases the likelihood of a move back toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).
    • Trading Action: Consider buying in this zone, especially as the price moves closer to the 55%-75% range. A strong breakout past ₱6.05-₱6.15 strengthens the case for an upward continuation.

  3. Zone 3 (66%-100%) – Strong Bounce Approaching Full Reversal (₱6.09 and Beyond)

    • A breakout beyond ₱6.09 would indicate strong bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a full retracement to ₱6.29.
    • Trading Action: If the price breaks above ₱6.09 with strength, it reinforces a buy-and-hold strategy until the full retracement is achieved. Traders who entered earlier may add to their positions or hold until the price retests previous highs.

Confirmation Signals to Watch

Before committing to a trade, look for clear bullish confirmation in the ₱6.05-₱6.15 Sweet Spot (55%-75% retracement range):

  • Volume Surge: A noticeable increase in volume near ₱6.05-₱6.15 signals strong buyer interest.
  • Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Look for hammers, bullish engulfing, or piercing patterns, indicating a shift in momentum.
  • Breakout Above ₱6.09: A strong move and close beyond this level confirms upward momentum and increases the probability of a rally toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).

If these signals align, it supports a buy-and-hold strategy for potential upside continuation.

Trading Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation

Based on the current price at ₱5.94 (41% retracement), the stock is approaching the critical reversal zone (55%-75%) but has not yet provided sufficient confirmation for a buy decision. Here’s a breakdown of actions:

  1. Buy: Only if the price moves into the 55%-75% retracement zone (₱6.05-₱6.15) with strong bullish confirmation signals.
  2. Hold: If you already own RCR, hold your position while monitoring for signs of a reversal in the 55%-75% range.
  3. Sell: No immediate action to sell, as the stock is in a potential recovery phase.

Conclusion

At ₱5.94, RL Commercial REIT Inc. is at a pivotal retracement point. For traders focused on upward momentum, patience and confirmation are key before entering a position. Monitor price action closely as it approaches the 55%-75% retracement zone, where the probability of a reversal back to ₱6.29 significantly increases. Until then, a hold strategy is advised.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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