URC (Universal Robina Corporation) January 22, 2025, Daily Chart Analysis Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Contents:

• Overview

• Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Analysis

• Conclusion

Overview

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with price continuing to make lower highs and lower lows. The stock is trading well below both the 20-day moving average (74.90) and the 200-day moving average (97.59), confirming sustained bearish momentum. Resistance at 75.00 remains a critical hurdle, while support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00. Recent red power bars and increased volume indicate persistent selling pressure, suggesting further downside risk. While a short-term bounce is possible, long positions should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish signal above 64.00. Until then, short trades remain the preferred strategy, with potential downside targets at 60.00 - 58.00. resistance.

URC’s January 22, 2025, daily chart shows strong bearish momentum, with key resistance at 75.00 and support forming around 60.00.

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) remains in a strong downtrend, with the price making lower highs and lower lows:

• The 200-day moving average (97.59) is sloping downward, confirming a long-term bearish trend.
• The 20-day moving average (74.90) is also trending lower, acting as a dynamic resistance level.
• The stock is currently trading at 64.50, well below both moving averages, reinforcing the bearish market structure.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

• The price is positioned far below both moving averages, indicating significant selling pressure.
• Major resistance is at 75.00, aligning with the 20-MA rejection zone.
• Support is forming at 64.00 - 60.00, which could act as a short-term stabilization area.
• If price continues to break down, the next major support zone is around 58.00 - 60.00.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

• The recent trading sessions show strong red power bars, confirming persistent bearish momentum.
• Volume has increased, suggesting active selling pressure rather than a lack of liquidity.
• No strong green power bars have emerged yet, meaning buying interest remains weak.

Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies (Step 4)

• Short entries remain viable, especially if the stock retests and rejects 70.00 - 75.00.
• Long trades should only be considered if price stabilizes and forms a strong bullish pattern above 64.00.

Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments (Step 5)

• For shorts, a stop-loss should be placed above 75.00, where a break could signal trend exhaustion.
• For longs, a stop-loss at 60.00 ensures protection against further downside risk.

Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation (Step 6)

• The last few candles remain red, signaling ongoing bearish momentum.
• A color change to green near 64.00 - 60.00 would suggest a potential bottoming formation.

Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets (Step 7)

• For shorts, profit-taking should be considered at 60.00 - 58.00, where some buying support might appear.
• For longs, an exit near 70.00 - 75.00 would be reasonable given the downtrend resistance zones.

Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)

• If price rebounds from 60.00, a secondary long entry could be considered.
• A failed breakout at 70.00 could present a short re-entry opportunity.

Tactical Position Management (Step 9)

• Short positions should be favored, with sizing adjusted based on retracement strength.
• If price bounces with strong volume, scaling into a small long position may be justified.

Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails (Step 10)

• A counter-trend long is only valid if the stock reclaims 66.00 with strength.
• Otherwise, following the primary downtrend remains the safer strategy.

Conclusion

The January 22, 2025, daily chart of URC reinforces a strong downtrend, with resistance at 75.00 and support at 60.00.

• Short positions remain favorable, especially below 70.00.
• Long positions require confirmation, preferably with a strong green power bar and volume surge.
  Traders should remain cautious and wait for trend confirmation before making directional trades.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Evaluating RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR): Retracement Strategy as of January 21, 2025

Contents:

• Retracement Perspective: Understanding the Power Move

• Retracement Levels and Probabilities

• Confirmation Signals to Watch

• Trading Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation

• Conclusion

As of January 21, 2025, RL Commercial REIT Inc. (RCR) closed at ₱5.94, which represents the 41% retracement level of a prior downward power move (from ₱6.29 to ₱5.70). Using the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy, we aim to determine whether this is the right time to buy, sell, or hold.

RL Commercial REIT Inc. at 41% retracement after a downward move, January 21, 2025.

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Retracement Perspective: Understanding the Power Move

• Power Move: The downward movement that originated at ₱6.29 (100% retracement) and ended at ₱5.70 (0% retracement). This marks the start and end of the price decline.
• Current Position: The price at ₱5.94 has retraced 41% upward from the low of ₱5.70.
• Focus: As a trader focused on buying in upward setups (not shorting), the goal is to find confirmation that the price will reverse upward beyond the 55%-75% retracement zone, with a potential move back to ₱6.29 (100% retracement).

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Retracement Levels and Probabilities

1. Zone 1 (0%-33%) – Shallow Bounce with Weak Recovery Potential (₱5.70-₱5.89)

   • Current Price: ₱5.94 (41% retracement level).
   • Probability of Upward Continuation: Moderate. The price has rebounded from ₱5.70 but remains below the critical reversal zone (55%-75%). A shallow bounce often lacks the strength needed for a sustained move higher.
   • Trading Action: Wait for further confirmation of momentum and strength before adding positions. Entering too early may expose traders to a possible pullback.

2. Zone 2 (33%-66%) – Deeper Bounce with Improving Reversal Potential (₱5.89-₱6.09)

   • This range partly overlaps with the Sweet Spot (55%-75%), which is the optimal reversal zone.
   • Probability of Reversal: 60%-90%. If the price enters this zone and shows strong volume and bullish candlestick confirmation, it increases the likelihood of a move back toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).
   • Trading Action: Consider buying in this zone, especially as the price moves closer to the 55%-75% range. A strong breakout past ₱6.05-₱6.15 strengthens the case for an upward continuation.

3. Zone 3 (66%-100%) – Strong Bounce Approaching Full Reversal (₱6.09 and Beyond)

   • A breakout beyond ₱6.09 would indicate strong bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a full retracement to ₱6.29.
   • Trading Action: If the price breaks above ₱6.09 with strength, it reinforces a buy-and-hold strategy until the full retracement is achieved. Traders who entered earlier may add to their positions or hold until the price retests previous highs.

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Confirmation Signals to Watch

Before committing to a trade, look for clear bullish confirmation in the ₱6.05-₱6.15 Sweet Spot (55%-75% retracement range):

• Volume Surge: A noticeable increase in volume near ₱6.05-₱6.15 signals strong buyer interest.
• Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Look for hammers, bullish engulfing, or piercing patterns, indicating a shift in momentum.
• Breakout Above ₱6.09: A strong move and close beyond this level confirms upward momentum and increases the probability of a rally toward ₱6.29 (100% retracement level).

If these signals align, it supports a buy-and-hold strategy for potential upside continuation.

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Trading Recommendation: Wait for Confirmation

Based on the current price at ₱5.94 (41% retracement), the stock is approaching the critical reversal zone (55%-75%) but has not yet provided sufficient confirmation for a buy decision. Here’s a breakdown of actions:

1. Buy: Only if the price moves into the 55%-75% retracement zone (₱6.05-₱6.15) with strong bullish confirmation signals.
2. Hold: If you already own RCR, hold your position while monitoring for signs of a reversal in the 55%-75% range.
3. Sell: No immediate action to sell, as the stock is in a potential recovery phase.

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Conclusion

At ₱5.94, RL Commercial REIT Inc. is at a pivotal retracement point. For traders focused on upward momentum, patience and confirmation are key before entering a position. Monitor price action closely as it approaches the 55%-75% retracement zone, where the probability of a reversal back to ₱6.29 significantly increases. Until then, a hold strategy is advised.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

DDMPR January 21, 2025, Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

• Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

• Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Thoughts

Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR) closed at ₱1.06 on January 21, 2025, with a -2.75% decline from the previous session. The day’s high was ₱1.08, and the low was ₱1.05, aligning closely with key moving averages. Volume stood at 3.022 million, indicating moderate trading interest.

A critical factor in today’s market action is the ex-dividend date of DDMPR. Historically, REITs tend to decline after the ex-date as investors adjust for the dividend payout. Let’s analyze this chart using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to assess its potential movement.

DDMPR’s January 21, 2025, stock chart showing key technical levels post-ex-dividend.

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Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• 200-day MA (₱1.09): The price is still below the long-term moving average, indicating an overall downtrend.
• 20-day MA (₱1.05): The stock has been consolidating around this short-term support level.
• Trend Context: After a prolonged sideways phase, the stock has been attempting a short-term recovery but faces resistance near the 200-day MA.

📌 Conclusion: DDMPR is in an early trend reversal attempt but still struggling to break key resistances.

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Step 2: Assessing Price Position Relative to Key Levels

• The closing price (₱1.06) is above the 20-day MA (₱1.05) but below the 200-day MA (₱1.09).
• A successful break and close above ₱1.09 could confirm a potential reversal.

📌 Conclusion: Caution is needed, as failure to hold above ₱1.05 could signal a pullback.

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Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• The recent bullish push showed higher-than-average volume, but today’s red candle signals profit-taking.
• The current retracement is moderate, suggesting this could be a temporary pullback.

📌 Conclusion: Watch for a green power bar in the next few sessions for confirmation.

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Step 4: Entry Confirmation Using Technical Alignment

• The ideal entry would be near the ₱1.05 support zone with a confirmation signal (e.g., bounce with strong volume).
• Breakout Entry: A close above ₱1.09 could confirm bullish momentum.

📌 Conclusion: No clear entry signal yet, but potential setups exist if it holds above ₱1.05.

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Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• A logical stop-loss would be below ₱1.03 (recent swing low).
• If it breaks below ₱1.05 decisively, a deeper correction may follow.

📌 Conclusion: Risk management is crucial—tight stops recommended below ₱1.03.

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Step 6: Color Change as Secondary Confirmation

• The price needs a green candle tomorrow to confirm strength.
• If the next session turns red, it may indicate further weakness.

📌 Conclusion: A color change to green at this level would be a bullish signal.

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Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy

• If entered at ₱1.05, potential profit-taking zones:
  • Partial Exit at ₱1.10 (above 200-day MA resistance and adjusted for transaction cost)
  • Full Exit at ₱1.15 (previous resistance)

📌 Conclusion: Short-term traders may consider scaling out if price struggles at ₱1.10.

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Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Pullbacks

• Best re-entry: If price pulls back near ₱1.03-₱1.05 and holds.
• Aggressive traders could attempt a momentum breakout trade if it surges past ₱1.09.

📌 Conclusion: Monitor for re-entry opportunities around ₱1.05.

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Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• Shallow retracement (₱1.05-₱1.06) → Can consider larger positions.
• Deeper retracement (₱1.03) → Smaller position with tight stop.

📌 Conclusion: Size positions accordingly based on retracement depth.

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Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

• If the price fails to hold ₱1.05, a counter-trend short may be possible down to ₱1.00.
• However, trading against a REIT’s support levels can be risky.

📌 Conclusion: Avoid counter-trend shorts unless a major breakdown occurs.

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Trading Plan

• Entry: Near ₱1.05 (if it holds)

• Stop-Loss: Below ₱1.03

• Targets: ₱1.10 (partial), ₱1.15 (full)

• Position Allocation: 10,000 shares total (4,000 for Core Position, 6,000 for Tactical Actions)

• Transaction Size: Minimum of 2,000 shares per trade

• Core Position Entry:

• Entry Price: Php 1.05 
• No. of Shares: 4,000
• Gross Amount: Php 4,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 12.39
• Net Amount: Php 4,212.39

• Core Position Exit - Breakeven:
• Exit Price: Php 1.07
• No. of Shares: 4,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 4,280.00
• Transaction Cost: 
• Net Amount: Php 4,241.69
• Realized Gain: Php 29.30
• Core Position Partial Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.10
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 19.69
• Net Amount: Php 2,180.31
• Partial Profit: Php 74.00
• Core Position Full Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.15
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,300.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 20.58
• Net Amount: Php 2,279.42
• Partial Profit: Php 173.00
• Total Gain: Php 247.00 (5.87%)