DDMPR January 21, 2025, Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

• Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

• Chart Evaluation Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Thoughts

Overview of DDMPR’s Market Context

DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR) closed at ₱1.06 on January 21, 2025, with a -2.75% decline from the previous session. The day’s high was ₱1.08, and the low was ₱1.05, aligning closely with key moving averages. Volume stood at 3.022 million, indicating moderate trading interest.

A critical factor in today’s market action is the ex-dividend date of DDMPR. Historically, REITs tend to decline after the ex-date as investors adjust for the dividend payout. Let’s analyze this chart using our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to assess its potential movement.

DDMPR’s January 21, 2025, stock chart showing key technical levels post-ex-dividend.

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Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• 200-day MA (₱1.09): The price is still below the long-term moving average, indicating an overall downtrend.
• 20-day MA (₱1.05): The stock has been consolidating around this short-term support level.
• Trend Context: After a prolonged sideways phase, the stock has been attempting a short-term recovery but faces resistance near the 200-day MA.

📌 Conclusion: DDMPR is in an early trend reversal attempt but still struggling to break key resistances.

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Step 2: Assessing Price Position Relative to Key Levels

• The closing price (₱1.06) is above the 20-day MA (₱1.05) but below the 200-day MA (₱1.09).
• A successful break and close above ₱1.09 could confirm a potential reversal.

📌 Conclusion: Caution is needed, as failure to hold above ₱1.05 could signal a pullback.

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Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• The recent bullish push showed higher-than-average volume, but today’s red candle signals profit-taking.
• The current retracement is moderate, suggesting this could be a temporary pullback.

📌 Conclusion: Watch for a green power bar in the next few sessions for confirmation.

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Step 4: Entry Confirmation Using Technical Alignment

• The ideal entry would be near the ₱1.05 support zone with a confirmation signal (e.g., bounce with strong volume).
• Breakout Entry: A close above ₱1.09 could confirm bullish momentum.

📌 Conclusion: No clear entry signal yet, but potential setups exist if it holds above ₱1.05.

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Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• A logical stop-loss would be below ₱1.03 (recent swing low).
• If it breaks below ₱1.05 decisively, a deeper correction may follow.

📌 Conclusion: Risk management is crucial—tight stops recommended below ₱1.03.

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Step 6: Color Change as Secondary Confirmation

• The price needs a green candle tomorrow to confirm strength.
• If the next session turns red, it may indicate further weakness.

📌 Conclusion: A color change to green at this level would be a bullish signal.

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Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy

• If entered at ₱1.05, potential profit-taking zones:
  • Partial Exit at ₱1.10 (above 200-day MA resistance and adjusted for transaction cost)
  • Full Exit at ₱1.15 (previous resistance)

📌 Conclusion: Short-term traders may consider scaling out if price struggles at ₱1.10.

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Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Pullbacks

• Best re-entry: If price pulls back near ₱1.03-₱1.05 and holds.
• Aggressive traders could attempt a momentum breakout trade if it surges past ₱1.09.

📌 Conclusion: Monitor for re-entry opportunities around ₱1.05.

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Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• Shallow retracement (₱1.05-₱1.06) → Can consider larger positions.
• Deeper retracement (₱1.03) → Smaller position with tight stop.

📌 Conclusion: Size positions accordingly based on retracement depth.

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Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

• If the price fails to hold ₱1.05, a counter-trend short may be possible down to ₱1.00.
• However, trading against a REIT’s support levels can be risky.

📌 Conclusion: Avoid counter-trend shorts unless a major breakdown occurs.

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Trading Plan

• Entry: Near ₱1.05 (if it holds)

• Stop-Loss: Below ₱1.03

• Targets: ₱1.10 (partial), ₱1.15 (full)

• Position Allocation: 10,000 shares total (4,000 for Core Position, 6,000 for Tactical Actions)

• Transaction Size: Minimum of 2,000 shares per trade

• Core Position Entry:

• Entry Price: Php 1.05 
• No. of Shares: 4,000
• Gross Amount: Php 4,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 12.39
• Net Amount: Php 4,212.39

• Core Position Exit - Breakeven:
• Exit Price: Php 1.07
• No. of Shares: 4,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 4,280.00
• Transaction Cost: 
• Net Amount: Php 4,241.69
• Realized Gain: Php 29.30
• Core Position Partial Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.10
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,200.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 19.69
• Net Amount: Php 2,180.31
• Partial Profit: Php 74.00
• Core Position Full Exit:
• Exit Price: Php 1.15
• No. of Shares: 2,000.00
• Gross Amount:  Php 2,300.00
• Transaction Cost: Php 20.58
• Net Amount: Php 2,279.42
• Partial Profit: Php 173.00
• Total Gain: Php 247.00 (5.87%)

URC Closing Analysis – January 21, 2025

Contents:

• Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why

• Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Trading Recommendation

• The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

• Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

• Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

• Final Thoughts

Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why

Today’s trading session saw URC closing at 66.00, maintaining its position within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—a clear indication that bearish momentum remains strong. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy both suggested that the downtrend was intact, advising traders to sell or hold rather than buy.

URC stock closing analysis for January 21, 2025, marking the end of Phase 1 strategy testing.

Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

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Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• The URC closing price of 66.00 remains within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, confirming that bearish sentiment is still dominant.
• Price remains below both key moving averages (200-MA at 97.79, 20-MA at 75.40), reinforcing a strong downtrend.
• Decision: SELL bias remains intact.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

• Price is hovering below the key support of 67.00 and near the hard stop-loss level of 65.50.
• The retracement sweet spots at 67.85 and 68.75 suggest that the stock failed to reclaim these levels, further solidifying bearish strength.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL if further weakness persists.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• The red power bars remain dominant, with today's candle closing lower than the previous day.
• Volume remains elevated at 4.363M, suggesting continued selling pressure.
• Decision: SELL bias confirmed unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

• There was no confirmed breakout above key resistance, with price struggling near the retracement zones.
• Decision: SELL bias holds.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• The hard stop-loss remains at 65.50, and the stock barely stayed above it at closing.
• Our earlier full exit at 65.85 was a defensive move to prevent further downside exposure.
• Decision: EXIT if price fails to reclaim support levels.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

• The absence of a strong green power bar means no clear shift in momentum.
• Decision: HOLD until reversal confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

• If shorting, partial profit-taking near 66.00 could be considered as a tactical move.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL recommended.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

• Since 67.00 remains a broken support, re-entry is highly speculative.
• Decision: HOLD, as risk remains elevated.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• The 33% Retracement Continuation Zone signals further downside potential.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL based on further price movement.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

• Given that price is still within the bearish zone, counter-trend trades are risky and premature.
• Decision: HOLD / SELL unless a major reversal appears.

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Final Trading Recommendation

• HOLD / SELL: The bearish trend remains in control, and buyers need confirmation before considering entries.
• Monitor retracement levels: If price fails to reclaim 67.00, downside pressure will likely continue.

This concludes Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy—and despite a few questionable trades, the strategy has remained effective and reliable in guiding our decisions.

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The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95

Despite all signals pointing towards continued bearish momentum, we made a 50-share purchase at 65.95 just after the resumption of afternoon trading—even after fully exiting at 65.85 before the mid-day break.

So, why would we make a move that contradicts both our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy?

While the decision lacked technical justification, we can stretch an explanation based on the following perspectives:

1. Strategic Experimentation with Controlled Risk

   • We may have taken the position to test market reaction at a key psychological zone (near 65.50-66.00).
   • The trade involved only 50 shares, making it a low-risk probe entry rather than a full commitment.

2. Emotional Bias and Market Psychology

   • Sometimes, market instinct kicks in. A sense of overextension on the downside might have influenced the trade.
   • A possible overreaction in price action after the sharp drop could have hinted at a minor bounce attempt.

3. Reassessing Market Momentum in Real Time

   • While our strategies signaled a continuation of the downtrend, intraday market movements sometimes present temporary strength unseen in daily charts.
   • A quick position might have been taken to assess price responsiveness at this level.

4. A Learning Opportunity for Our Trading Strategy

   • This move allows us to test the effectiveness of our retracement rules in real time.
   • Even flawed decisions contribute to refining our approach for future trades.

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Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation

URC’s Closing Price & Technical Context

• Closing Price: 66.00, within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—confirming persistent bearish momentum.

• Hard Stop-Loss Level: 65.50, which remains a critical risk level.

• Resistance Levels: 67.85 and 68.75, which the stock failed to reclaim.

• Volume: 4.363M, showing continued selling pressure.

Trade Execution Summary

1. We fully exited 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break to protect our capital.

2. We later purchased 50 shares at 65.95 after the afternoon session resumed.

   • This went against our strategy’s recommendation, as the bearish sentiment remained intact.

   • However, the small size of the trade and market conditions made it a calculated risk.

   • In hindsight, we acknowledge that strict adherence to our system should have prevailed.

Lessons & Strategy Adjustments

• We should have followed our strategy without deviation.

• Market instinct must never override structured risk management.

• Controlled-risk testing helped refine our approach, but Phase 2 will be fully disciplined.

Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe

With four weeks of testing behind us, we are confident in the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. As we move forward into Phase 2, our focus shifts to applying the strategy across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks with absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

Phase 2 Trading Parameters

✅ Starting Capital: ₱22,200.00
✅ Stock Holdings: 1,000 RCR shares, 50 URC shares
✅ Current Portfolio Status: -₱1,516.07 loss
✅ Objective: Execute 20 trades following the strategy with precision.
✅ Key Principle: Strict adherence to the system—trade exactly as the strategy dictates.

Final Thoughts

Phase 1 of our testing process has proven our strategy’s reliability, and despite minor missteps, it has provided structured guidance in making disciplined trade decisions. Now, Phase 2 begins, and we are excited to see how our strategy performs across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks.

After 20 fully disciplined trades, we will assess our results and refine our approach as necessary. The next chapter of our trading journey starts now.

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

URC Mid-Day Trading Insights – January 21, 2025

Contents:

• Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

• Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation

• Conclusion

Universal Robina Corporation (URC) continues to face strong selling pressure as traders navigate key support levels. In today’s mid-day session, we analyze URC’s price action using our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy to determine the best possible trading decisions.

URC intra-day chart showing support, resistance, and key decision levels for traders.

Mid-Day Break Evaluation of URC (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context

• URC remains in a strong downtrend, trading well below both the 200-day MA (97.79) and 20-day MA (75.37).
• The price is testing a key support level at 67.00, but downward momentum is still present.
• Decision: SELL Bias – But watch for a potential support bounce.

Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones

• The stock is trading below both key moving averages and within a high-risk zone near 65.50.
• Bargain price is set at 60.00, indicating a potential deeper retracement if 65.50 fails.
• Decision: HOLD (if waiting for a bounce confirmation) / SELL (if price remains weak).

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

• Recent red power bars indicate strong selling pressure, with high volume confirming downward momentum.
• No significant green elephant bars have emerged to confirm a reversal.
• Decision: SELL (unless strong green bars emerge near support).

Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies

• The price is hovering near the key support level at 67.00, but there is no clear breakout above resistance.
• If a strong green candle appears, a buy can be considered.
• Decision: HOLD (for confirmation) / SELL (if price closes below support).

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

• The hard stop-loss is set at 65.50 to prevent excessive losses.
• If price breaches 65.50, exiting entirely is the best risk-management decision.
• Decision: SELL (if price approaches or breaks 65.50).

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

• The recent red bars indicate no clear color change from red to green.
• For a reversal, a strong green elephant bar near 67.00 is required.
• Decision: HOLD (if waiting for confirmation) / SELL (if continued weakness).

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

• If already shorting from higher levels, partial profit-taking is a reasonable strategy.
• The hard resistance is at 71.50, meaning any upward move near this level should be considered for exit.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for securing gains).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

• If price retests 67.00 and holds, a possible re-entry can be considered.
• If price drops below 65.50, avoid re-entering until 60.00 bargain price is tested.
• Decision: HOLD (for now), SELL if 65.50 fails.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

• The market is still bearish, requiring careful trade management.
• Reducing position size and protecting capital is essential.
• Decision: PARTIAL SELL (for capital protection).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

• If the price plunges to 60.00, a counter-trend trade can be considered.
• Until then, the overall sentiment remains bearish.
• Decision: HOLD for now, wait for further confirmation.

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Final Mid-Day Break Evaluation

• HOLD: If waiting for clearer reversal confirmation.
• PARTIAL SELL: If already shorting, take partial profits.
• SELL: If price drops below 65.50 or fails to show recovery.

📌 Final Decision: HOLD / PARTIAL SELL (Monitor for price action at key levels).

Conclusion

The afternoon session will be crucial in determining whether URC can defend its 67.00 support level or if further downside awaits. Traders should remain cautious and follow key risk management strategies to protect their capital.

Execution of Our Trade Decision

Given the weakness in price action and our strict adherence to risk management, we decided to entirely exit our 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break, as the price approached our hard stop-loss at 65.50. Unfortunately, we were slightly delayed in executing our exit, reinforcing the importance of prompt execution in risk management. This decision was made to limit potential losses and reassess the market before considering any re-entry opportunities.

Lessons Learned and Strategy Reflection

In hindsight, our 90-share purchase of URC on January 20 was a misstep, as the sell signal did not materialize strongly enough to justify entry. Following our strategy more strictly would have helped us avoid unnecessary exposure. Additionally, our January 16 exit should have been a full exit rather than a partial one, as price action has confirmed continued bearish momentum. However, these experiences serve as valuable lessons.

This marks Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and overall, it has proven to be an effective framework. Despite some execution errors, the strategy has provided structured guidance and risk management, keeping our trading decisions disciplined. We acknowledge our lessons and move forward with greater confidence in the system.

• Justifying the 90-Share Purchase of URC Despite a Sell Signal

• Mid-Day Trading Reflection: January 16, 2025 – Lessons from the Tactical Action

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Related Readings

• Micro Stock Trader: The Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy: Integrating Retracement for Better Trades

• Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy

• Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

• Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

• Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us