Contents:
- Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why
- Evaluation of URC Closing Chart (January 21, 2025) Using Our Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Final Trading Recommendation
- The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95
- Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation
- Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe
- Final Thoughts
Bearish Sentiment Prevails, Yet We Took a Small Contrarian Trade – Here’s Why
Today’s trading session saw URC closing at 66.00, maintaining its position within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—a clear indication that bearish momentum remains strong. Our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy both suggested that the downtrend was intact, advising traders to sell or hold rather than buy.
URC stock closing analysis for January 21, 2025, marking the end of Phase 1 strategy testing.
Step 1: Identifying Market State & Trend Context
- The URC closing price of 66.00 remains within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone, confirming that bearish sentiment is still dominant.
- Price remains below both key moving averages (200-MA at 97.79, 20-MA at 75.40), reinforcing a strong downtrend.
- Decision: SELL bias remains intact.
Step 2: Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones
- Price is hovering below the key support of 67.00 and near the hard stop-loss level of 65.50.
- The retracement sweet spots at 67.85 and 68.75 suggest that the stock failed to reclaim these levels, further solidifying bearish strength.
- Decision: HOLD / SELL if further weakness persists.
Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength
- The red power bars remain dominant, with today's candle closing lower than the previous day.
- Volume remains elevated at 4.363M, suggesting continued selling pressure.
- Decision: SELL bias confirmed unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation From Both Strategies
- There was no confirmed breakout above key resistance, with price struggling near the retracement zones.
- Decision: SELL bias holds.
Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments
- The hard stop-loss remains at 65.50, and the stock barely stayed above it at closing.
- Our earlier full exit at 65.85 was a defensive move to prevent further downside exposure.
- Decision: EXIT if price fails to reclaim support levels.
Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation
- The absence of a strong green power bar means no clear shift in momentum.
- Decision: HOLD until reversal confirmation.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets
- If shorting, partial profit-taking near 66.00 could be considered as a tactical move.
- Decision: PARTIAL SELL recommended.
Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks
- Since 67.00 remains a broken support, re-entry is highly speculative.
- Decision: HOLD, as risk remains elevated.
Step 9: Tactical Position Management
- The 33% Retracement Continuation Zone signals further downside potential.
- Decision: HOLD / SELL based on further price movement.
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails
- Given that price is still within the bearish zone, counter-trend trades are risky and premature.
- Decision: HOLD / SELL unless a major reversal appears.
Final Trading Recommendation
- HOLD / SELL: The bearish trend remains in control, and buyers need confirmation before considering entries.
- Monitor retracement levels: If price fails to reclaim 67.00, downside pressure will likely continue.
This concludes Week 4 of testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy—and despite a few questionable trades, the strategy has remained effective and reliable in guiding our decisions.
The Questionable Yet Justifiable 50-Share Purchase at 65.95
Despite all signals pointing towards continued bearish momentum, we made a 50-share purchase at 65.95 just after the resumption of afternoon trading—even after fully exiting at 65.85 before the mid-day break.
So, why would we make a move that contradicts both our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy and the Percentage Retracement Trading Strategy?
While the decision lacked technical justification, we can stretch an explanation based on the following perspectives:
Strategic Experimentation with Controlled Risk
- We may have taken the position to test market reaction at a key psychological zone (near 65.50-66.00).
- The trade involved only 50 shares, making it a low-risk probe entry rather than a full commitment.
Emotional Bias and Market Psychology
- Sometimes, market instinct kicks in. A sense of overextension on the downside might have influenced the trade.
- A possible overreaction in price action after the sharp drop could have hinted at a minor bounce attempt.
Reassessing Market Momentum in Real Time
- While our strategies signaled a continuation of the downtrend, intraday market movements sometimes present temporary strength unseen in daily charts.
- A quick position might have been taken to assess price responsiveness at this level.
A Learning Opportunity for Our Trading Strategy
- This move allows us to test the effectiveness of our retracement rules in real time.
- Even flawed decisions contribute to refining our approach for future trades.
Market Recap & URC Trade Evaluation
URC’s Closing Price & Technical Context
Closing Price: 66.00, within the 33% Retracement Continuation Zone—confirming persistent bearish momentum.
Hard Stop-Loss Level: 65.50, which remains a critical risk level.
Resistance Levels: 67.85 and 68.75, which the stock failed to reclaim.
Volume: 4.363M, showing continued selling pressure.
Trade Execution Summary
We fully exited 300 URC shares at 65.85 before the mid-day break to protect our capital.
We later purchased 50 shares at 65.95 after the afternoon session resumed.
This went against our strategy’s recommendation, as the bearish sentiment remained intact.
However, the small size of the trade and market conditions made it a calculated risk.
In hindsight, we acknowledge that strict adherence to our system should have prevailed.
Lessons & Strategy Adjustments
We should have followed our strategy without deviation.
Market instinct must never override structured risk management.
Controlled-risk testing helped refine our approach, but Phase 2 will be fully disciplined.
Transition to Phase 2: Expanding Our Trading Universe
With four weeks of testing behind us, we are confident in the effectiveness of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. As we move forward into Phase 2, our focus shifts to applying the strategy across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks with absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.
Phase 2 Trading Parameters
✅ Starting Capital: ₱22,200.00
✅ Stock Holdings: 1,000 RCR shares, 50 URC shares
✅ Current Portfolio Status: -₱1,516.07 loss
✅ Objective: Execute 20 trades following the strategy with precision.
✅ Key Principle: Strict adherence to the system—trade exactly as the strategy dictates.
Final Thoughts
Phase 1 of our testing process has proven our strategy’s reliability, and despite minor missteps, it has provided structured guidance in making disciplined trade decisions. Now, Phase 2 begins, and we are excited to see how our strategy performs across multiple Shariah-compliant stocks.
After 20 fully disciplined trades, we will assess our results and refine our approach as necessary. The next chapter of our trading journey starts now.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
