Saturday, January 18, 2025

BETA Tracker Update – January 17, 2025: Live Testing Insights & Strategy Evolution

Contents:

  • Portfolio Performance Overview (January 17, 2025)
  • Portfolio Allocation & Trading Strategy
  • Key Lessons from Week 3 & BETA's Role in Refining Our Strategy
  • Key Takeaways & Next Steps for BETA
  • Conclusion

As we head into Week 3 of live testing our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we continue refining our trading strategy through our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). This dedicated trading portfolio allows us to track our active trading results separately from our Micro Stock Trading Investment Portfolio, which maintains a mix of long-term investments and short-term trades.

Our journey began with the 8-Step Trading Plan, inspired by Oliver Velez, which served as our foundational trading structure. However, through daily trade analysis, we identified areas for improvement, leading to the evolution of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan (Read More). Now, with BETA in place, we can fine-tune our strategies under real market conditions and adjust as needed.




AS OF: JANUARY 18, 2025
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY BETA
Inception Date: January 15, 2025
Initial Deposit: Php 15,000.00
Net Cash Flows: Php 21,228.38
Adjusted Principal Portfolio Value: Php 36,228.38
Starting Portfolio Value: Php 36,228.38
Ending Portolio Value: Php 35,977.93
Realized Gain/Loss: - Php 250.46
Percent Realized Gain/Loss: - 0.69%
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: 100%
     Universal Robina Corporation (URC) 22%
     RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) 17%
     Cash Balance 62%
DIVIDENDS: 0
     Universal Robina Corporation (URC) 0
     RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) 0
NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS 13



Portfolio Performance Overview (January 15 to 17, 2025)

  • Initial Deposit: PHP 15,000.00
  • Net Cash Flows: PHP 21,228.38
  • Adjusted Principal Portfolio Value: PHP 36,228.38
  • Starting Portfolio Value: PHP 36,228.38
  • Ending Portfolio Value: PHP 35,977.93
  • Realized Gain/Loss: -PHP 250.46
  • Unrealized Gain/Loss: -0.69%

Portfolio Allocation & Trading Strategy

  • Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 22%
  • RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 17%
  • Cash Balance: 62%

Key Lessons from Week 3 & BETA's Role in Refining Our Strategy

1. The Importance of Stop-Loss Adjustments in Live Trading

One of the biggest takeaways from Week 3 has been the need for a dynamic stop-loss setup in response to market volatility. Early on, we encountered significant price swings, reinforcing the importance of:
Hard Stop-Loss: A rigid, non-negotiable level that protects capital from deep drawdowns.
Dynamic Stop-Loss: A flexible approach that adapts to market conditions, helping us capture gains while managing risk.

Our experiences in Week 3 have shown that without proper stop-loss implementation, small trading accounts like BETA can quickly erode capital. (Read More)




2. Tactical Entries & Exits: Balancing Strategy with Transaction Costs

Another critical evolution in our trading approach has been refining tactical entries and exits, particularly when considering transaction costs. In smaller accounts, frequent trades can eat into profits, requiring a careful balance between execution and cost efficiency.

Key adjustments made in BETA:
Tactical Entries: Smaller, strategic positions placed at key market levels.
Core Positions: Longer-hold positions based on a strong technical setup.
Transaction Cost Consideration: Ensuring each trade has a sufficient risk-reward ratio to justify execution.

These refinements allow us to protect our trading capital while maintaining active market participation. (Read More)


Key Takeaways & Next Steps for BETA

1️⃣ Live Testing Validates Strategy Adjustments:

  • The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan has improved execution clarity by separating tactical trading (BETA) from long-term investments (Micro Stock Trading Investment Portfolio).

2️⃣ Stop-Loss Refinements Are Crucial for Small Accounts:

  • Hard stops protect capital, while dynamic stop-losses ensure we stay in profitable trades while reducing downside exposure.

3️⃣ Efficient Tactical Entries/Exits Are Necessary for Long-Term Growth:

  • Managing transaction costs and ensuring proper trade setups will be a continued focus in upcoming weeks.

Conclusion

The launch of BETA Trading Account in Week 3 marks an important milestone in our trading strategy evolution. By tracking our active trading activities separately, we can refine execution, manage risk, and optimize tactical trading without affecting long-term investment holdings.

As we move forward, our focus will be on adapting to market conditions while maintaining strict discipline in execution. The lessons learned in BETA will serve as the foundation for improving our overall investment approach in both trading and portfolio management.

📢 Stay tuned for next week's update as we continue refining our strategy in live market conditions!


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Introducing the BETA Tracker: Weekly Updates on Our Budget Ethical Trading Account

Contents:

  • What is BETA
  • Key Features of the BETA Tracker
  • Why Follow the BETA Tracker

As part of our continuous refinement of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we are excited to introduce the BETA Tracker—a dedicated space for monitoring our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) in real time. Updated every weekend after market close, this weekly tracker provides insights into our live trading adjustments, strategy refinements, and risk management decisions.

An analytical approach to monitoring trading performance, managing risk, and optimizing entry and exit strategies in the Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA).

Tracking Weekly Progress: Refining Ethical Trading Strategies with the BETA Tracker

What is BETA?

BETA is a scaled-down, live-testing account designed to explore tactical entries, core positions, and risk management techniques under actual market conditions. Unlike our primary account, which held a larger position in URC, BETA starts with a manageable 210 shares, allowing us to refine execution strategies with minimal risk exposure.

Key Features of the BETA Tracker:

🔹 Weekly Performance Recap – A summary of trades, position updates, and market reactions over the past trading week.
🔹 Real-Time Position Management – Track our position sizing strategy, including tactical (10% of shares) and core entries (50% of shares).
🔹 Trading Scenarios in Action – Follow our approach to testing key support levels, profit-taking at resistance, and applying disciplined stop-loss strategies.
🔹 Strategic Adjustments – See how we adapt our plan based on market movements, refining our strategy with each trade.
🔹 Documented Insights – Every trade, decision, and lesson is meticulously recorded to improve future execution in our larger accounts.

Why Follow the BETA Tracker?

By monitoring BETA, readers can gain practical insights into live market execution, risk management, and strategy optimization—all while maintaining an ethical and disciplined approach to stock trading. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this tracker serves as an educational resource showcasing real-world trading applications.

Stay updated every weekend as we document our progress with BETA, share lessons learned, and refine our strategies for more effective, ethical trading.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.



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Thursday, January 16, 2025

Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to Our BETA Account – Using the Daily Chart for Trade Setups

Contents:

  • Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart
  • Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan
  • Final Thoughts

Our Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) journey has reinforced the importance of choosing the right timeframe for trade execution. After testing different approaches, we found that the daily chart is the most effective for our capital level. By applying our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to this timeframe, we can set up trades strategically, reduce unnecessary transactions, and align better with the broader trend. The latest price action in URC (Universal Robina Corporation) provides us with a perfect opportunity to refine our approach and develop a structured plan for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025).


A daily candlestick chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) as of January 16, 2025, displaying a downward trend with price closing at Php 68.00. The chart includes moving averages (20-MA at Php 76.82 and 200-MA at Php 98.32), increasing volume, and a bearish breakdown.

URC Daily Chart as of January 16, 2025, showing a continued downtrend with price closing at Php 68.00. The chart highlights key moving averages, volume levels, and bearish momentum after breaking below the 20-day moving average (Php 76.82).




Applying the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan to the Daily Chart

Step 1: State

  • Current Market Condition: URC closed at Php 68.00, down Php 1.80 (-2.58%) from the previous session.

  • Trend: The price is below the 20-MA (Php 76.82) and the 200-MA (Php 98.31), confirming a strong bearish trend.

  • Volume: Increased selling pressure, with volume at 5.939M, indicating sustained downside momentum.

Step 2: Position and Location

  • Previous Support (Php 70.50) has been broken, meaning we should now look at Php 67.00-Php 66.50 as the next key support zone.
  • Resistance remains at Php 71.50 (our prior tactical exit level) and the 20-MA (Php 76.82).

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

  • The large red bar on January 16, 2025, confirms a continuation of the downtrend.
  • There is no immediate reversal signal—no bottoming tail or green candles with high volume.

Step 4: Entry Strategy (Simplifying Tactical Actions)

  • New Entry Criteria for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025):
    • Only enter if the price stabilizes above Php 67.00 with a reversal candle (green hammer, engulfing candle) and high volume.
    • If the price continues to drop, wait for potential buying opportunities near Php 66.00 or lower.

Step 5: Place and Monitor Stop Loss

  • Hard Stop-Loss for Week 4: Php 65.50 (to avoid getting trapped in further breakdowns).
  • Trailing stop to be adjusted based on price action near Php 67.00-Php 68.00.

Step 6: Color Change (Trend Confirmation Before Action)

  • We will not enter until at least one strong green day appears, showing buying pressure.
  • A bullish confirmation should include a higher close than the previous day with above-average volume.

Step 7: Profit Taking (Strategic Exits Based on Daily Chart)

  • First tactical exit at Php 71.50 (prior support turned resistance).
  • Secondary exit at Php 75.00 if momentum continues upward.

Step 8: Re-entry (Avoiding Frequent Trading)

  • No intra-day re-entries—we will only re-enter if the daily chart confirms sustained bullish movement.
  • If stopped out at Php 65.50, we will wait for consolidation before another entry.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Reduce the number of transactions to max 2 per week:
    • One well-timed entry based on support confirmation.
    • One exit when a key resistance is hit (or stop-loss is triggered).

Step 10: Counter-Trend Entries (Only for Strong Reversals)

  • If URC drops below Php 67.00 but quickly rebounds, we will monitor for a potential bounce trade.
  • However, if no reversal signal appears, we stay out.



Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025) Trading Plan

Scenario 1: URC Stabilizes Above Php 67.00

  • Action: Buy small position (50 shares) only if a green reversal candle appears with strong volume.
  • Stop-Loss: Php 65.50 (to protect capital).
  • Exit Target: Php 71.50 for partial take-profit.

Scenario 2: URC Drops Below Php 67.00 Without Reversal

  • Action: No trade—wait for consolidation near Php 65.00-Php 66.00.
  • Review Stop-Loss Placement: Adjust potential buy levels accordingly.

Scenario 3: URC Breaks Above Php 71.50

  • Action: Monitor for momentum. If volume supports it, we can buy on retracement to Php 70.00-Php 70.50.
  • Exit Target: Php 75.00 or trailing stop at Php 72.00.



Key Adjustments for the BETA Account

  1. Limit Trading Frequency:

    • Only one entry and one exit per week unless major trend shifts occur.
  2. Avoid Intra-Day Trading:

    • Entries will only be based on the daily chart, not smaller timeframes.
  3. Respect Key Support and Resistance Levels:

    • Php 67.00 is a critical zone—any buying must be confirmed by a green candle and volume.
    • Php 71.50 is a hard resistance—exit immediately if reached.
  4. Trade Only When the Reward Justifies the Risk:

    • Minimum target price differential must be Php 3.00 per share to offset transaction costs.
A daily candlestick chart of Universal Robina Corporation (URC) as of January 16, 2025, marking essential trading levels for Week 4 (January 20-24, 2025). The chart shows hard resistance at Php 71.50, support at Php 67.00, stop-loss at Php 65.50, and a bargain price at Php 60.00, with volume analysis.

URC Daily Chart as of January 16, 2025, setting up the Week 4 Trading Scenario. The chart highlights key support at Php 67.00, resistance at Php 71.50, and a hard stop-loss at Php 65.50, with a bargain price of Php 60.00 for potential accumulation.



Final Thoughts

Our experience over the past two weeks confirmed that the daily chart is the best timeframe for our BETA Account. By simplifying our tactical actions, focusing on stronger price moves, and avoiding intra-day noise, we can maximize capital efficiency and minimize unnecessary losses.

For Week 4, our strategy is clear: wait for a confirmation candle at Php 67.00 before entering, set a tight stop-loss, and target Php 71.50 for exits. This disciplined approach aligns with our goal of small-scale, ethical trading with cost-conscious decision-making.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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