Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Small Position Sizes: A Key Element in Managing Trading Risk

Contents:

  • Our Trading Context
  • Position Sizing Strategy
  • Example Application of Small Position Sizes
  • Key Takeaways
  • Final Thought

In active trading, managing position sizes is a critical element in controlling risk and navigating volatile market conditions. During our recent trades of URC, we refined our approach to position sizing, particularly focusing on tactical entries and core positions. Here's a breakdown of our recommendation for small position sizes, tailored to traders managing a 1,500-share position of URC.


URC 5-Minute Chart (January 14, 2025): Key levels for stop-loss adjustments, tactical entries, and partial profit-taking as part of refining our trading strategy.


Our Trading Context

At Micro Stock Trader, we currently hold 1,500 shares of URC, divided into two categories:

  • Long-term position: 900 shares set aside for long-term investment, held regardless of short-term market fluctuations.
  • Trading position: 600 shares allocated for short-term trading activities, where we actively engage in buying and selling based on our Modified 10-Step Trading Plan.

This approach allows us to balance long-term growth with short-term opportunities, ensuring we preserve capital while staying agile in the market.

Position Sizing Strategy

Given that 600 shares are available for trading, we split them into smaller chunks to better manage risk and maximize flexibility. This ensures that we don’t overexpose ourselves to market volatility, especially during uncertain periods.

Core Positions

  • Size: 50% of trading shares (~300 shares)
  • Purpose:
    Core positions are for medium-term trades where we have high conviction in the setup, such as a potential breakout or a confirmed reversal from a major support level.
  • When to Use:
    Enter a core position near key technical levels where we expect a significant move. For example, if the price rebounds from a major support zone or breaks above a resistance level with strong volume, we commit to a larger core position.

Tactical Entries

  • Size: 10% of trading shares (~60 shares)
  • Purpose:
    Tactical entries are smaller, speculative positions used when testing potential reversals or during volatile periods. They allow us to stay engaged in the market while minimizing risk.
  • When to Use:
    Use tactical entries when the market is uncertain, such as near critical support or after multiple gap-downs, where a rebound may occur but hasn’t been confirmed.

Clarification: Managing an Existing Inventory of 600 Shares

Since we said that the 600 shares for trading are already owned and part of our portfolio, entering at a specific level like Php 70.50 becomes more about tactical position management rather than initiating new buys. Here’s how to handle this scenario:

  1. Tactical Re-entry After Partial Selling
    If the price approaches Php 70.50 during a downtrend, we shall consider selling a portion of our position ahead of that level (e.g., near Php 71.50 or Php 69.80) and re-entering at Php 70.50 if there’s a clear bounce or reversal. This approach allows us to reduce exposure during the downtrend and re-enter at a lower average cost.

  2. Position Monitoring Without Additional Buying
    If we decide to hold the full 600 shares, we shall treat Php 70.50 as a key monitoring level. If the price holds above this level, we maintain our position. If it breaks below Php 70.50, we adjust our stop-loss towards Php 67.75 to limit further downside risk.

Example Application of Small Position Sizes

Let’s illustrate how we would apply this strategy during a typical trading session:

  1. Day 1:

    URC’s price approaches a key support level near Php 70.50. Since we already own the 600 shares, we monitor this level closely. If the price holds, we maintain our position. On the other hand, if we haven't yet completed our 600-share allocation for URC, and the price approaches the key support level near Php 70.50, we can start with a tactical entry of 60 shares to test the market and stay engaged without significant risk. This approach involves actively trading around our core inventory by reducing our exposure during the downtrend and increasing it again once signs of a recovery emerge.

  2. Day 2:

    The price begins to stabilize and move upward. If we haven't yet completed our 600-share allocation for URC, we add a core position of 300 shares, increasing our exposure as the setup becomes more favorable. Otherwise, we treat Php 70.50 as a key monitoring level. If the price holds above this level, we maintain our position. However, if the price breaks below Php 70.50, we are prepared to implement our stop-loss strategy at Php 67.75 to limit potential losses.

  3. Day 3:

    If the price approaches our profit target (e.g., Php 73.50), we can either take partial profits or sell the entire core position while holding a small tactical position in case the uptrend continues.

Key Takeaways

  1. Avoid Overexposure
    By starting with smaller tactical entries, we limit risk during uncertain conditions. Only after the setup improves do we scale up with a larger core position.

  2. Scale In Gradually
    Instead of committing our entire trading position at once, we use a phased approach. Tactical entries allow us to manage uncertainty, and core positions help us capture larger moves once the trend is clearer.

  3. Preserve Long-Term Holdings
    Our 900-share long-term position remains untouched, ensuring that our short-term trading activities do not interfere with our broader investment goals.

Final Thought

Managing position sizes effectively is crucial for trading success, especially in a volatile market. By combining smaller tactical entries with larger core positions, we reduce risk, remain flexible, and position ourselves for potential gains without jeopardizing our portfolio.

Would you like to learn more about how we manage risk and position sizing as we refine our trading strategy? Stay tuned for more updates as we continue documenting our journey with the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan!



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Micro Stock Trader: Week 2 Trading Update: Detailed Assessment and Outlook

Micro Stock Trader: My Stock Trading Plan: Inspired by Oliver Velez’s 8-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Trading Journal Review: January 14, 2025 – Lessons Learned from a Tough Market Day

Contents:

  • Key Trading Actions
  • Challenges Faced
  • What We Did Right
  • Lessons Learned
  • Looking Ahead
  • Final Thoughts

At Micro Stock Trader, we believe in transparency when documenting our trading journey. We share not just our successes but also our setbacks and lessons learned. On January 14, 2025, we faced a highly volatile market session while trading URC, resulting in several stop-loss triggers and challenging conditions. Despite this, we managed to benefit from the session by innovating on our original strategy, demonstrating the importance of adaptability in real-time trading.

URC 5-Minute Chart (January 14, 2025): Visualizing four stop-loss levels triggered during high volatility, highlighting critical price breakdowns.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of our trading activity on January 14 and how we handled the situation:

Key Trading Actions (January 14, 2025)

Stop-Loss Triggers

During the trading session, we encountered four stop-loss levels being triggered at Php 75.85, Php 73.80, Php 71.50, and Php 69.80. This reflects the high volatility and bearish momentum of the market throughout the day.

Trading Activity

  • Initial Sells at Php 72.65:
    We sold 340 shares and later 500 shares at Php 72.65, as the price broke below our stop-loss level of Php 73.80. This was a necessary defensive move to minimize further losses as the bearish trend intensified.

  • Re-entry at Php 71.75:
    Seeing the price briefly stabilize, we re-entered the market with 500 shares at Php 71.75. However, as the price continued to decline, we exited the position at Php 70.65, adhering to our stop-loss rule at Php 71.50.

  • Final Re-entries Near Php 69.50–Php 69.95:
    Toward the end of the session, we made multiple smaller buys near the Php 69.50–Php 69.95 range (a probable bottoming area) as the price showed signs of stabilizing. This move aligned with our counter-trend entry rule, allowing us to position ourselves for a potential rebound while minimizing risk with smaller position sizes.

Challenges Faced

  1. High Volatility and Bearish Momentum
    The market remained in a wide state throughout the session, with both the 20-MA and 200-MA on the 5-minute chart showing a clear downtrend. The persistent selling pressure made it difficult to hold long positions without triggering stop-losses.

  2. Frequent Stop-Loss Triggers
    While our stop-loss strategy helped control downside risk, the frequent triggers resulted in multiple exits and re-entries. This is a known challenge during highly volatile sessions but was necessary to protect our capital.

What We Did Right

  1. Adhering to Stop-Loss Rules
    We followed our pre-defined stop-loss levels, exiting positions promptly when key levels were breached. This disciplined approach prevented us from holding onto losing trades for too long, minimizing potential losses.

  2. Counter-Trend Re-entries
    Despite the bearish sentiment, we identified an opportunity for counter-trend entries near Php 69.50, following multiple gap-downs and high-volume sell-offs. This innovation to our original strategy allowed us to capitalize on a potential rebound while keeping risk low.

  3. Smaller Position Sizes for Risk Management
    We used smaller position sizes for re-entries near the session’s end. This reduced our overall exposure while still positioning us to benefit from a potential recovery.

Lessons Learned

  1. Adaptability is Key
    While we followed our original strategy closely, we also introduced a key innovation by applying counter-trend entries during extreme conditions. This flexibility allowed us to turn a challenging session into an opportunity for innovation to our original strategy, demonstrating the importance of adaptability in real-time trading.

  2. Stick to the Plan, But Stay Open to Improvements
    By sticking to our modified 10-step trading plan, we managed risk effectively. At the same time, we didn’t hesitate to deviate slightly when the market presented a unique opportunity—this balance of discipline and adaptability was crucial.

  3. Transparency Builds Confidence
    At Micro Stock Trader, we don’t hide our mistakes or significant deviations from our setup. Instead, we document them openly to improve our process and share valuable lessons with our readers. This session was a perfect example of how even difficult days can provide valuable insights.

Looking Ahead: Strategy for the Remaining Trading Days of Week 3

Given the current bearish trend and market conditions, our strategy for the remaining three trading days is as follows:

  1. Monitor the Php 69.50 Level
    This level will be crucial in determining whether the price has found a temporary bottom. If the price holds and shows signs of reversal, we may re-enter with tight stop losses.

  2. Wait for a Clear Reversal Signal
    We will be looking for a green power bar or a bullish candlestick pattern near support, accompanied by strong volume, before making significant entries.

  3. Probability of Breakout
    Based on the current consolidation pattern and volume behavior, we maintain a moderate probability (50-60%) of a breakout occurring within Week 3 (January 15 to 21, 2025). If no significant move occurs by the end of the week, we will revise our breakout expectation to Week 4.

Final Thoughts

January 14, 2025, was a tough but insightful trading day. While high volatility and frequent stop-loss triggers posed challenges, our disciplined approach and strategic adaptability helped us manage risk and end the session with the benefit of live testing the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan. This experience underscores the importance of sticking to the plan while staying flexible—a crucial balance in successful trading.

As we move forward, we’ll continue to test and refine our strategy, sharing both our wins and losses transparently. Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate the remaining trading days of Week 3!

Would you like to see how this strategy evolves in real-time? Follow along and join us in this journey!



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Micro Stock Trader: Week 2 Trading Update: Detailed Assessment and Outlook

Micro Stock Trader: My Stock Trading Plan: Inspired by Oliver Velez’s 8-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Refining the Micro Stock Trader Strategy: The Modified 10-Step Trading Plan

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Why We Revised Our Strategy
  • The 10-Step Trading Plan
  • Additional Guidelines
  • Conclusion: Staying Adaptive While Remaining Disciplined

Testing and Refining Our Trading Strategy

Over the past few weeks, we have been testing and refining our trading strategy to better adapt to real-time market conditions. This modified 10-step trading plan builds on the foundational principles we originally adopted from Oliver Velez’s approach, while incorporating the lessons we’ve learned from actively trading in volatile markets.

Why We Revised Our Strategy

The stock market is a dynamic environment, and while a well-defined strategy is essential, flexibility is equally important. Our recent trades revealed the need for a more adaptive approach, especially during periods of sharp price movements, multiple gap-downs, and high volatility. The revised plan introduces specific rules for counter-trend entries, improved risk management, and clear criteria for re-entries and stop-loss adjustments.


URC Daily Chart (January 14, 2025): The price action shows a significant gap down with high volume, testing key support levels as part of our Week 3 analysis in refining the Micro Stock Trader Strategy.


The 10-Step Trading Plan


Step 1: State

Understanding the market’s current phase is the foundation of our strategy. Markets operate in a continuous cycle with four key phases:

  • Up: Rising prices, ideal for long trades.
  • Top: Slowing momentum, signaling potential reversals.
  • Down: Declining prices, suitable for short trades or waiting for a bottom.
  • Bottom: Stabilizing prices, indicating potential reversals.

We also observe the space between the 20-period and 200-period moving averages:

  • Tight/Narrow State: Indicates consolidation with breakout potential.
  • Wide State: Reflects a strong trend.

Current Phase: Consolidation, with potential for a breakout or breakdown.

Step 2: Position and Location

We focus on identifying trades during the Up and Bottom phases of the cycle.

  • Position: Determines whether the price is above or below key moving averages.

    • Positive Position: Above both the 20-MA and 200-MA, favoring long trades.
    • Negative Position: Below both moving averages, favoring caution or short trades.
  • Location: Refers to how close the stock price is to the moving averages.

    • Near Location: Close to the moving averages, signaling potential breakouts.
    • Far Location: Distant from the moving averages, signaling potential pullbacks or consolidations.

Step 3: Assess Power Bars

Look for green power bars or narrow range bars near resistance, which could signal a potential breakout.

Step 4: Entry

Enter long positions if the price breaks above a key resistance level with strong volume. Alternatively, enter near key support levels if bullish reversal signals appear.

Step 5: Place a Stop Loss

Set an initial stop loss at a logical technical level, such as below recent swing lows or a fixed percentage. Adjust the stop loss dynamically as the trade progresses.

Step 6: Color Change

Monitor for a color change from red to green near key support or resistance levels, signaling potential trend reversals.

Step 7: Profit Take

Take partial profits at key resistance levels or predefined zones. Use trailing stops to lock in additional gains while allowing trades to run if momentum remains strong.

Step 8: Re-entry

Re-enter trades on pullbacks to support levels if the breakout sustains and the trend remains strong. Use tighter stop losses for re-entries and limit the number of consecutive re-entries to avoid overtrading.

Step 9: Counter-Trend Entries

Counter-trend entries are a new addition to the plan, designed to capitalize on potential reversals during extreme market conditions.

  • Allowed only after two consecutive gap-downs or a 5% or more drop below the 200-day MA.
  • Use smaller position sizes and tighter stop losses to manage risk effectively.

Step 10: Track All Trades in a Journal

Record every trade, including entry and exit prices, position size, and reasons for entry. Regularly review the journal to identify patterns and improve decision-making.


Additional Guidelines

  1. Capital Allocation:

    • Never risk more than 2% of total capital on a single trade.

    • Avoid allocating more than 50% of total capital to a single stock during high volatility.

  2. Gap-Up Strategy:

    • If a stock gaps up after multiple gap-downs, wait for confirmation before entering.

  3. Volatility Awareness:

    • During high volatility, reduce position sizes and widen stop losses slightly.

  4. Psychological Discipline

    • Stick to the plan and avoid emotional trading. Consistency is key, even if not every trade results in a profit.


Conclusion: Staying Adaptive While Remaining Disciplined

By following this revised 10-step plan, we aim to maintain a structured approach while staying flexible enough to handle unexpected market movements. The inclusion of counter-trend entries, tighter risk management, and clearer re-entry criteria ensures that we remain aligned with our core strategy while adapting to real-time conditions.

As we continue to test and refine this approach, we look forward to sharing more insights and results in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for updates on how this strategy performs in different market environments!

Would you like to try applying this trading plan? Share your experience with us—we’d love to hear how it works for you!



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Note: Some of Oliver Velez's videos that we examined to adapt his trading strategy include:


Related Readings

Micro Stock Trader: Week 2 Trading Update: Detailed Assessment and Outlook

Micro Stock Trader: My Stock Trading Plan: Inspired by Oliver Velez’s 8-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

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