Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant
Halal Core Growth Portfolio | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱150,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader
Introduction: Seeking Growth with Discipline and Purpose
Mga kabayan, heto na’t balik-tanaw tayo kay Universal Robina Corporation (URC). Noong July 21, 2025, nag-entry tayo sa tactical Layer 1 buy sa ₱94. Sabi nga noon, “eto na ang buwelo ng URC—nakasampa na sa trend at volume.”
Pero ngayon, as of August 15, 2025, ibang-iba ang itsura ng chart. Mula sa breakout momentum, bigla tayong sinabuyan ng malakas na red candle, bagsak hanggang ₱81.00 (-8.89%). Ano ang nagbago at ano ang ibig sabihin nito sa ating plano? Tara, himayin muli gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy.
Contents
2️⃣ Step-by-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Trade Cycle Status Update
4️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
5️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
6️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
7️⃣ Final Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
TRADE DETAILS
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Date: August 15, 2025
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Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
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Exchange: PSE
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Timeframes: Weekly (with 8, 20, 50, 200 MA overlays)
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Closing Price: ₱81.00
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High: ₱88.50
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Low: ₱80.10
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20-MA (Short-Term): ₱85.55
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50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱83.22
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200-MA (Long-Term): ₱111.88
📉 Malinaw na nagkaroon ng breakdown below MA20 at MA50, sabay malaking bearish volume spike.
2️⃣ Step-by-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Dating nasa uptrend recovery phase ang URC, pero ngayong linggo, nabasag ang momentum. Price closed below MA20 at MA50, malapit sa danger zone.
➡ Verdict: Wait / Defensive Mode | Score: 6/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Closing price ₱81 ay halos kapantay lang ng MA50 (₱83.22). Malapit na sa “line in the sand” level. Pag nabasag pa ito pababa, balik sa bearish bias.
➡ Verdict: Caution | Score: 6/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Yung malakas na red candle -8.89% with high volume ay bearish power bar—sign ng distribution at panic selling.
➡ Verdict: SELL Signal for short-term traders | Score: 5/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Hindi ito confirmation ng bullish entry—bagkus, invalidation ng recent bullish thesis. Walang bagong support hold.
➡ Verdict: No new entry yet | Score: 5/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation
Ang SL na ₱86 ay triggered na. Kaya kung tactical trade, dapat cut na. Long-term? Bantayan kung mag-hold ang ₱80 psychological support.
➡ Verdict: Stop respected | Score: 6/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Malinaw ang shift—mula green candles noong July, ngayon red engulfing.
➡ Verdict: HOLD defensive | Score: 5/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Walang profit-taking kasi negative agad ang move. Kailangan ayusin exit strategy.
➡ Verdict: None yet | Score: 6/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Kung mag-hold sa ₱80, puwedeng test re-entry sa Layer 1 ulit. Pero kung basag ₱80, hintay sa ₱75 area.
➡ Verdict: Monitor only | Score: 7/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Buti na lang naka-test lot pa lang tayo (Layer 1). Hindi tayo overexposed.
➡ Verdict: Controlled risk | Score: 9/10
Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
URC remains halal-compliant and defensive consumer staple, pero kailangan irespeto ang market signals.
➡ Verdict: HOLD as core watchlist | Score: 8/10
📊 Total Score: 63 / 100
Malinaw na bumaba ang grado kumpara sa huling review (95/100).
3️⃣ Trade Cycle Status Update
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Phase: Breakdown Checkpoint
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Current Action: Stop triggered for tactical trade at ₱86.
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Next Move: Monitor ₱80 support. Add only kapag may bullish reversal signal.
4️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱150,000 Capital Example | Post-Breakdown Adjustments)
👉 Guiding Principle: Huwag habulin ang basag na trend. Maliit lang muna sa umpisa (test buys), dagdag lang kapag may malinaw na base or confirmed reversal.
Layer 1 – Support Test Buy
📌 ₱81.00–₱82.00
Position: 200 shares = ₱16,200
Allocation: ~10% (tiny test buy, kung mag-hold ang ₱80 support)
Layer 2 – Deeper Support Entry (if breakdown)
📌 ₱78.00–₱79.00
Position: 200 shares = ₱15,600–₱15,800
Allocation: ~10% (only if nag-hold dito, kasi ₱80 break = danger zone)
Layer 3 – Recovery Confirmation (Above MA20)
📌 ₱86.00–₱87.00
Position: 300 shares = ₱25,800
Allocation: ~17% (buy only kapag nakabalik sa ibabaw ng MA20 with volume)
Layer 4 – Trend Reclaim Zone
📌 ₱90.00–₱92.00
Position: 300 shares = ₱27,000
Allocation: ~18% (add kapag nabawi ang breakdown zone at nag-stabilize)
Layer 5 – Full Momentum Add-on
📌 ₱95.00–₱98.00
Position: 400 shares = ₱38,000
Allocation: ~25% (for full reversal confirmation)
🔑 Max Deployment: ~80% of ₱150,000
(Reserve at least 20% cash buffer in case of deeper drops or volatility)
5️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan (Profit-Taking Strategy)
Target 1 – Relief Rally Trim
📌 ₱90.00–₱92.00
Exit 25% of position
Reason: First resistance zone from recent breakdown, psychological barrier
Target 2 – Recovery Resistance
📌 ₱100.00–₱102.00
Exit 35% of position
Reason: Clear psychological level and prior strong resistance
Target 3 – Trend Reversal / Long-Term Ceiling
📌 ₱110.00–₱112.00 (MA200 zone ₱111.88)
Exit 40% of position or trail stop if trend continues
Reason: Long-term resistance, possible ceiling for cycle
✅ Summary ng Pagbabago mula July 24 plan:
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Dati: Aggressive entries (₱90–₱102 range) kasi breakout momentum.
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Ngayon: Defensive entries (₱81–₈7) muna, add lang kapag nakabalik sa trend.
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Dati: Exit targets ₱106 / ₱115 / ₱123.
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Ngayon: Mas conservative ₱92 / ₱102 / ₱112 (aligned sa bagong resistance levels).
6️⃣ ✅ Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / AVOID ADDING
✅ Recommendation: HOLD current test position only. Avoid aggressive adding. Re-entry only if ₱80 support holds with bullish reversal signals, or if price recovers above MA20 (₱86–₇).
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✅ Risk Management: Hard stop if breakdown below ₱80 (major structure violation). Keep cash buffer (~20% of capital) for flexibility.
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✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Trim at ₱90–₱92 (first resistance), partial exit at ₱100–₱102, final review/exit near ₱110–₱112 (MA200 ceiling).
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✅ Position Size Strategy: Stay small and defensive (Layer 1 only). Add gradually in Layers 3–5 only after trend recovery confirmation.
7️⃣ 🌱 Final Reflection: Trade with Purpose
Mga kabayan, hindi araw-araw Pasko sa trading. Ang URC, kahit matibay na halal consumer stock, napapalo rin ng market volatility. Ang tunay na diskarte ay hindi sa pagpilit humabol, kundi sa pagrespeto sa signals at sa pagkontrol ng risk.
Kung baga sa Batangas kape—minsan mapait, pero kung tama ang timpla, sulit pa rin sa huli.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Mainam Basahin: Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado.
Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
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