Showing posts with label Risk Management in Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risk Management in Trading. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Introducing BETA: Budget Ethical Trading Account for Live Strategy Testing

Contents:

  • Adjustments to Our Strategy for BETA
  • Updated Trading Scenarios for BETA
  • Why BETA Matters
  • Key Takeaways for BETA
  • Final Thought

As part of our ongoing refinement of the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan, we have launched the Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA). This account is dedicated to live-testing our trading strategies with a smaller, focused position. For the time being, we will set aside our primary account holding 1,500 shares of URC and shift our focus entirely to BETA, which starts with a manageable 210 shares of URC.

The purpose of BETA is to concentrate on the active trading aspect of our strategy while keeping our risk exposure minimal. With this account, we aim to continue exploring small position sizes, tactical entries, and core positions in a real-world trading environment.

Micro Stock Trader BETA

Micro Stock Trader Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA).

Adjustments to Our Strategy for BETA

Given that BETA starts with 210 shares of URC, we have made the following adjustments to our position sizing and risk management strategy:

1. Position Sizing for BETA

Since the total number of shares in BETA is 210, we will scale our tactical and core positions accordingly:

  • Core Positions: 50% of trading shares → 100 shares
    Core positions in BETA represent half of the total account and are used for medium-term trades when we have high confidence in a setup.

  • Tactical Entries: 10% of trading shares → 20 shares
    Tactical entries are smaller, speculative trades used to test the market during uncertain periods or near potential reversal levels.

This scaling ensures that we maintain the same proportionate approach as in our main account, but with a smaller capital base.

Updated Trading Scenarios for BETA

Scenario 1: Testing Key Support Levels

If URC approaches a key support level, such as Php 70.50, we can:

  • Start with a tactical entry of 20 shares to test the market.

  • If the price holds and shows signs of upward momentum, we can add a core position of 100 shares, increasing our exposure as confidence in the setup grows.

Scenario 2: Profit-Taking at Resistance Levels

If URC reaches a significant resistance level, such as Php 73.50, we will:

  • Take partial profits by selling 50 shares, ensuring that we lock in gains while leaving some shares to ride further upside if momentum continues.

  • Use a trailing stop-loss for the remaining shares to protect profits while staying engaged in the trade.

Scenario 3: Stop-Loss Strategy

We will maintain a hard stop-loss at Php 67.75, similar to our primary account, to limit downside risk. If the price breaks below this level:

  • We will exit the entire position to preserve capital.

  • Tactical re-entry will only be considered if the price stabilizes and forms a new support level.

Why BETA Matters

BETA serves as a controlled environment where we can test real-time applications of our trading strategy with lower risk. This approach allows us to:

  1. Focus on Execution:
    With a smaller position, we can concentrate on fine-tuning our entry and exit strategies without the emotional burden of managing a large position.

  2. Improve Tactical Decision-Making:
    BETA helps us refine tactical entries and exits, especially during high-volatility sessions, ensuring that our strategy remains adaptable to different market conditions.

  3. Document and Learn:
    Every trade in BETA will be documented meticulously, allowing us to gather insights and lessons that can be applied to our primary account once the testing phase concludes.

Key Takeaways for BETA

  • Position sizing has been adjusted to fit the smaller scale of BETA, with 100 shares for core positions and 20 shares for tactical entries.

  • The hard stop-loss at Php 67.75 remains a critical part of our risk management strategy.

  • BETA allows us to stay committed to disciplined execution while reducing risk exposure.

Final Thought

By launching BETA, we reinforce our commitment to refining the Modified 10-Step Trading Plan through disciplined, real-world testing. This focused approach ensures that we continue learning and improving while keeping risk under control.

Stay tuned as we document our progress with BETA, sharing key trades, lessons learned, and further adjustments to our strategy!

Would you like to follow our BETA journey? Keep checking in for our latest updates as we put theory into practice!



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Micro Stock Trader: Week 2 Trading Update: Detailed Assessment and Outlook

Micro Stock Trader: My Stock Trading Plan: Inspired by Oliver Velez’s 8-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Friday, January 10, 2025

Final Week 2 Assessment and Updated Breakout Expectations for Week 3

Evaluating the URC Trading Strategy: Week 2 Performance Review Using the 8-Step Approach

As Week 2 concludes, it's time to assess the accuracy of our scenario modeling and update our expectations for the upcoming week. Our goal throughout Week 2 was to monitor key support and resistance levels, manage risk effectively, and remain prepared for a potential breakout. Here’s a detailed summary of how our scenario played out and what we can expect moving forward.

URC daily chart ending January 10, 2025, illustrating consolidation below Php80.70 resistance with key levels marked, including the demand zone at Php77.07

URC daily chart as of January 10, 2025, showing price consolidation below Php80.70 resistance and support holding at Php77.07 to end Week 2 trading

Final Week 2 Assessment (January 6–10, 2025)

Key Observations from Week 2 Trading

  1. Consolidation Below Resistance:
    The price consolidated between Php77.07 (support) and Php80.70 (resistance) throughout the week. Despite multiple tests of the resistance level, the price failed to break above Php80.70, signaling persistent selling pressure at higher levels.

  2. Support Held Strong:
    The demand zone around Php77.07 was tested multiple times, particularly on January 8 and 9, with lows of Php77.35 and Php76.40, respectively. Each time, the price rebounded, confirming this level as a reliable support zone.

  3. Volume Remained Low:
    Volume was relatively low compared to previous periods of high volatility. This lack of significant volume contributed to the market’s inability to push through resistance, resulting in continued consolidation.

  4. Stop-Loss Not Breached:
    Our stop-loss at Php75.85 remained intact throughout the week. The lowest price recorded was Php76.40, ensuring that the position was never at risk of being stopped out.

Comparison with Week 2 Scenario

Our Week 2 scenario accurately projected key technical levels and market behavior. Here's how the actual outcome compared with our expectations:

Aspect  Scenario Expectation Actual Outcome Accuracy
Demand Zone Support (Php77) Price expected to find support here Price repeatedly tested and rebounded from Php77 High
Resistance (Php80.70) Anticipated breakout above resistance Resistance was tested but not breached Moderate to High
Stop-Loss (Php75.85) No breach expected Stop-loss was not breached High
Breakout Timing Expected within Week 2 Breakout has not yet occurred Moderate

Overall Accuracy Rating: 8.5/10

  • Strengths:

    • Accurate identification of key support and resistance levels.

    • Effective stop-loss placement, ensuring risk was managed without prematurely exiting the position.

    • Correct anticipation of a consolidation phase between Php77.07 and Php80.70.

  • Areas for Improvement:

    • Breakout timing was overly optimistic. The breakout did not occur within Week 2 due to insufficient volume and market hesitation.

    • Greater emphasis on volume as a breakout indicator could improve future timing accuracy.

Updated Breakout Expectations for Week 3

Given the current consolidation pattern and low volume, we are revising our breakout expectation to occur within Week 3, specifically between January 15 to 21, 2025. Here’s what we’re watching:

  1. Key Resistance Level: Php80.70

    • A breakout above Php80.70 remains critical. For confirmation, we need a strong daily close above this level with significant volume.

  2. Volume Increase

    • A noticeable increase in volume will be a key indicator of renewed buying interest. Without this, the price may continue to consolidate or even retrace toward support.

  3. Support Levels

    • The demand zone at Php77.07 remains a reliable support. As long as the price holds above this level, our bullish outlook remains valid.

  4. Stop-Loss

    • Our stop-loss at Php75.85 remains unchanged. This level ensures that we limit downside risk while allowing the trade enough room to develop.

Next Steps

  1. Continue holding the current position at 40% allocation.

  2. Monitor for a breakout above Php80.70. If confirmed with strong volume, we will consider adding back to our position in line with our 1/3 Zone Action strategy.

  3. Maintain the stop-loss at Php75.85 to protect against downside risk.

  4. Prepare for profit-taking at key levels in the upper zones:

    • Php85.00 (1/3 Zone)

    • Php95.00 (2/3 Zone)

    • Php104.40 (3/3 Zone)

Conclusion

Week 2 provided valuable insights into market behavior, confirming the accuracy of our key level predictions while highlighting the need for flexibility in breakout timing. As we move into Week 3, our focus remains on monitoring the resistance level at Php80.70, managing risk effectively, and staying prepared for a potential breakout.

We will continue to keep you updated on further developments as they unfold. Stay tuned for our next post!


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings

Micro Stock Trader: Week 2 Trading Update: Detailed Assessment and Outlook

Micro Stock Trader: My Stock Trading Plan: Inspired by Oliver Velez’s 8-Step Strategy

Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page

Micro Stock Trader: Revealed: Our Top 3 Shariah-Compliant Stocks for a Winning Portfolio

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Micro Stock Trader: Investing in Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI): What the Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

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