Showing posts with label PSE Stock Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PSE Stock Analysis. Show all posts

Friday, June 27, 2025

Trade Evaluation: Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) – Layered Accumulation Actions Scored Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy (as of Weekly Close June 26, 2025)

WLCON Weekly Chart as of June 26, 2025 showing strong breakout from bottom zone with rising volume – confirming layered entry strategy.

WLCON trade actions of June 26, 2025 scored 90/100 for strategy compliance. Accumulation at ₱7.59–₱8.35


Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Trade Execution Summary
  • Step-by-Step Evaluation of Trade Actions
  • Final Score and Compliance Verdict
  • Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱6,000 Capital)
  • Updated Phased Exit Plan
  • What’s Next?

📌 Introduction

This post evaluates our recent Layered Accumulation Trade Actions for WLCON using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant, as applied in our June 13, 2025 Stock Price Review and the Layer 3 Trade Evaluation on June 26, 2025.

As of the weekly close on June 26, 2025, WLCON printed a strong green candle at ₱8.50 (+10.68%), validating our tactical layering sequence.


🧾 Trade Execution Summary

Layer 1 Tactical Test Entries

  • 📌 June 17, 2025 – 100 shares @ ₱7.70 → ₱772.28

  • 📌 June 24, 2025 – 100 shares @ ₱7.59 → ₱761.25

Layer 3 Breakout Add-ons

  • 📌 June 26, 2025 – 100 shares @ ₱8.28 → ₱830.45

  • 📌 June 26, 2025 – 100 shares @ ₱8.35 → ₱837.47

📊 Total Accumulated Shares: 400 shares

📉 Average Cost (with fees): ₱8.003


✅ Step-by-Step Scored Evaluation of Trade Actions

Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
WLCON transitioned from long-term downtrend to early reversal phase as of mid-June. Price is now above the 20-MA and testing the 50-MA.
Verdict: Strategic early entry into reversal.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Layer 1 entries occurred during the sweet spot pullback (~40–55% retracement), while Layer 3 breakouts activated past ₱8.00.
Verdict: Precise execution within target zones.
✅ Score: 10/10

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
Our June 13 review anticipated the setup. Subsequent candles confirmed strong green bars with rising volume.
Verdict: Breakout validated by price and volume.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Each entry aligned with price breaking resistance or bouncing from support, guided by volume and moving average structure.
Verdict: Clear and rule-based confirmation.
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
A mental stop remains just below ₱6.90 (below 20-MA). Proper risk spread with capital staggered in layers.
Verdict: Risk profile managed well.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Confirmation
Consistent green candles over the last 3 weeks validate the reversal process.
Verdict: Strong bullish color shift.
✅ Score: 10/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategy with Tactical Exits
Updated phased targets (see next section) ensure flexible but strategic exits.
Verdict: Tactical exits now actionable.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones
With 400 shares now positioned, we will only re-enter on breakouts past ₱9.50 or pullbacks near ₱7.50 with low volume.
Verdict: No overtrading. Entry discipline maintained.
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
All trades comply with our updated ₱6,000 layering plan. No overexposure.
Verdict: Full strategic alignment.
✅ Score: 10/10

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Initial entry occurred at reversal zone. Layer 3 was not counter-trend.
Verdict: This is now a momentum continuation play.
✅ Score: 9/10


📊 Final Score and Compliance Verdict

  • Total Strategy Score: 90 / 100

  • Verdict:Excellent Execution – All Entries Compliant with Plan and Strategy


 💰 Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱6,000 Capital – 100-Share Board Lot)

Our Layer 1 tactical entries were successfully executed on June 17 and June 24, 2025, buying 100 shares at ₱7.70 and another 100 shares at ₱7.59. These early entries were intended to test the potential bottom and build initial exposure.

  • Layer 1 – Tactical Test Entries

    • June 17, 2025: Bought 100 shares at ₱7.70 (₱772.28 including fees)

    • June 24, 2025: Bought 100 shares at ₱7.59 (₱761.25 including fees)

    • ✅ Total for Layer 1: ₱1,533.53

We initially planned to deploy a Layer 2 core position in the ₱7.00–₱7.20 zone. However, due to the rapid upward momentum observed in late June, we skipped Layer 2 and instead proceeded directly to Layer 3.

  • Layer 2 – Core Position

    • Planned for ₱7.00–₱7.20 zone

    • ❌ Skipped due to rapid price breakout — no pullback occurred

Two breakout add-on trades were executed on June 26, 2025 — one at ₱8.28 and another at ₱8.35 — as part of Layer 3.

  • Layer 3 – Breakout Add-ons

    • June 26, 2025, 1:00 PM: Bought 100 shares at ₱8.28 (₱830.45 including fees)

    • June 26, 2025, 2:00 PM: Bought 100 shares at ₱8.35 (₱837.47 including fees)

    • ✅ Total for Layer 3: ₱1,667.92

At this point, we have accumulated a total of 400 shares at an average cost of ₱8.003, bringing our capital deployment to ₱3,201.45.

  • Remaining Capital Reserve

    • Approx. ₱2,798.55

    • To be used for:

      • 🔁 Tactical re-entry on pullback near ₱7.50

      • 🚀 Additional breakout buy if price confirms breakout above ₱9.50 with strong volume

This structure ensures we are fully aligned with our Hybrid 10-Step layering strategy while maintaining enough flexibility for future adjustments.


🎯 Updated Phased Exit Plan and Targets

Primary Targets:

  • 🎯 ₱9.80 – First resistance target. Consider selling 100 shares (25%).

  • 🎯 ₱10.50 – Tactical midpoint target. Sell 100 shares.

  • 🎯 ₱11.90 – Weekly 50-MA target. Sell 100 shares.

  • 🎯 ₱14.50–₱15.00 – Hold final 100 shares for long-term exit if trend accelerates.

Trailing Stop: Begin raising stop to ₱7.80 if price closes above ₱9.00 with strong volume.


📌 What’s Next?

🔹 Hold current 400 shares. Do not add more unless trend breaks above ₱9.50 with power bar and volume surge.

🔹 Avoid premature selling before testing ₱9.80 unless price sharply reverses.

🔹 Monitor weekly closes. Red candles with high volume may signal need to tighten stops.

🚨 Final Thought: This trade cluster is a textbook case of proper layering, breakout validation, and portfolio-sized execution. Focus now shifts to profit-taking discipline and managing upside risk.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


Related Readings


GAWLOO: Ang Lugawang May Sarap ng Southeast Asia — Gawa ng Batangueñong Galing Abroad

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GAWLOO, The Southeast Asian Congee Experience Dine-In

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