Showing posts with label MREIT trade simulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MREIT trade simulation. Show all posts

Saturday, August 23, 2025

MREIT, Inc. (MREIT) Trade Simulation Evaluation: Weekly Chart as of August 22, 2025

Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant

Weekly candlestick chart of MREIT (MREIT) with moving averages and breakout test near ₱15.00 resistance.

SHARIAH-COMPLIANT REIT PORTFOLIO
Trading Simulation Capital: ₱200,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ethical and Halal-Conscious Investing in the PSE

Panimula

Mga kasubok, isang linggo lang ang pagitan pero malaki na agad ang galaw ni MREIT! Noong August 15, 2025, sinabi natin na nakikipag-arm wrestling pa siya sa ₱14.50 resistance. Ngayon, August 22, tinulak na niya ito at nag-close sa ₱14.72, may high pa na ₱15.00.

Dito pumasok ang ating Trade Simulation Update #16 – bumili tayo ng 500 shares @ ₱14.70 bilang tactical breakout entry. Ang tanong ngayon: matibay ba itong simula ng panibagong trend, o baka trap lang sa ibabaw ng 200MA? Tara, himayin natin gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy.


Nilalaman

1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection


1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot

  • Date: August 22, 2025

  • Stock: MREIT, Inc. (MREIT)

  • Exchange: PSE

  • Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)

  • Closing Price: ₱14.72

  • High: ₱15.00

  • Low: ₱14.48

  • 20-MA (Short-Term): ₱13.93

  • 50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱13.73

  • 200-MA (Long-Term): ₱14.48

  • 8-MA (Immediate Trend): ₱14.27


2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Now officially above the 200MA ₱14.48 — bullish signal. Trend shifting into uptrend continuation.
➡ Verdict: BUY bias
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Price is above all key MAs. Value support now sits at ₱14.40–₱14.50.
➡ Verdict: HOLD / ADD on pullback
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Strong green candle with long body, supported by rising volume. Clear power bar.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Our trade at ₱14.70 is aligned with breakout confirmation above ₱14.60 resistance. Fundamentals steady for dividend play.
➡ Verdict: Confirmed Entry Valid
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation, Not Noise
Initial stop = below ₱14.20 (near 8MA). Hard stop at ₱13.70 (50MA support).
➡ Verdict: Set stop ₱14.20 (tight) / ₱13.70 (hard)
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Second consecutive bullish candle with higher close. Clear green signal.
➡ Verdict: HOLD bullish stance
✅ Score: 9/10

Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Short-term profit target ₱15.20, extended ₱15.80. Dividend yield supports long-term holding.
➡ Verdict: SELL partials above ₱15.20
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
If pullback to ₱14.40–₱14.50 zone holds, re-entry/add is valid.
➡ Verdict: YES
✅ Score: 8/10

Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Already allocated tactical 500 shares. Room for scaling up to 1,500 shares total.
➡ Verdict: Moderate scaling
✅ Score: 7/10

Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
No counter-trend needed, trend is positive and Shariah-compliant.
➡ Verdict: Not Applicable
✅ Score: 6/10

🧮 Total Score: 80/100
(Up from 69/100 last week — breakout confirmation improved the setup.)


3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader

Parang sabong manok na nakawala sa kulungan — biglang tumalon si MREIT lampas sa 200MA. Hindi pa panalo ang laban, pero malakas ang unang bitaw.


4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)

📌 Entry Range: ₱14.40–₱14.70 (executed at ₱14.70)
📌 Stop-Loss Level: ₱14.20 (tight), ₱13.70 (hard stop)
📌 Target Prices: ₱15.20 → ₱15.80 → ₱16.20
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add if support at ₱14.40–₱14.50 holds; trim above ₱15.20
📌 Position Strategy: Already in tactical position, plan to scale into core if trend sustains


5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱40,000 Allocation | Faster Deployment)

Goal: Deploy 80–85% of capital sa first 3 layers to maximize pace; leave ~15–20% buffer for flexibility.

1️⃣ Layer 1 – Tactical Breakout Buy (Executed)
📌 ₱14.70 (done) | 500 shares | ₱7,350 (18.4%)
🎯 Rationale: Initial breakout confirmation above ₱14.60

2️⃣ Layer 2 – Core Entry on Pullback
📌 ₱14.40–₱14.60 | 1,000 shares | ₱14,500 (36.3%)
🎯 Rationale: Add conviction if pullback holds near support zone

3️⃣ Layer 3 – Conviction Add (Momentum Buy)
📌 ₱15.00–₱15.20 | 1,000 shares | ₱15,100 (37.8%)
🎯 Rationale: Buy strength on continuation above psychological ₱15 level

💰 Total Committed: ₱36,950 (~92%)
💵 Remaining Cash Buffer: ₱3,050 (~8%)

👉 Mas mabilis ito: halos buong ₱40k agad nadeploy in 3 tranches, maliit na lang ang buffer for emergencies.


6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan

Strategy: 3-stage trimming para ma-lock ang profits habang nakatabi pa rin ang dividend exposure.

1️⃣ First Exit – Tactical Trim
📌 ₱15.20–₱15.40 | Sell 500 shares (Layer 1)
🎯 Rationale: Quick lock-in from breakout layer

2️⃣ Second Exit – Partial Core
📌 ₱15.80–₱16.00 | Sell 500 shares (half of Layer 2)
🎯 Rationale: Major resistance zone profit lock

3️⃣ Third Exit – Final Core + Conviction Layer
📌 ₱16.20–₱16.50 | Sell 1,500 shares (Layer 3 + remainder)
🎯 Rationale: Maximize run-up, or rotate to next setup if momentum fades


👉 In short: mabilis ang layering, mabilis din ang trimming. Parang sprint style: agad build, agad take profit kapag tama ang timing.

⚠️ Hard Stop: ₱13.70


7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD WITH BULLISH BIAS
Recommendation: Hold tactical position at ₱14.70; add on pullback ₱14.40–₱14.50.
Risk Management: Stop below ₱14.20 (tight) or ₱13.70 (hard).
Profit-Taking Strategy: Targets ₱15.20, ₱15.80, ₱16.20.
Position Size Strategy: Gradual build, start small, scale with breakout validation.


8️⃣ Closing Reflection

Gaya ng buhay, may mga resistance tayong kailangang lampasan. Si MREIT, nagpakita ng lakas ngayong linggo — pero kailangan pa ring bantayan kung kaya niyang mag-sustain. Sa trading at sa pananampalataya, mahalaga ang tiyaga at malinaw na plano.


📊 Trade Simulation Update #16

  • Portfolio: Shariah-Compliant REIT Portfolio

  • Trade Executed: 500 shares @ ₱14.70 = ₱7,360

  • Stock Allocation: ₱40,000

  • Overall Allocation: ₱200,000

  • Quick Hatol: Tuloy ang laban — hawak muna, bantay sa pullback at breakout confirmation.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.

Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment



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Source: PSE Circular CN-2025-0001, “Updated List of Shariah-Compliant Securities,” issued January 8, 2025, covering the period ending December 25, 2024. Screening conducted by IdealRatings, Inc. and published by the Philippine Stock Exchange (www.pse.com.ph).


A collection of faith-driven investing lessons and reflections archived under Subok sa Puso.
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Ang “Subok sa Puso, Hindi Lang ng Strategy” ay nagsimula sa isang tanong: “Kung biglang dumating ang isang milyong piso, susunod pa rin ba ang puso sa plano?” Mula sa biglaang biyaya, isinilang ang isang serye na hindi lang tungkol sa pag-invest—kundi sa pagsubok ng puso gamit ang disiplina ng Hybrid 10-Step Strategy para sa long-term at halal-conscious na trading.


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Nang dumating ang isang milyong piso na walang hinihinging kapalit, hindi ito basta tinanggap. Ito ay tinanggap na may pagtanaw ng utang na loob, panalangin, at pagnanais gamitin sa tama. Kaya't ito ang naging bahagi ng allocation—hindi lang bilang isang strategist, kundi bilang isang Muslim na mulat sa bigat ng pananagutan.


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Focused on long-term growth stocks with halal fundamentals and conviction.

Capital Allocation: ₱400,000

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Tactical Rotation Fund (Board Lot Warrior Account) — Series #6
A battleground for real trades, small capital, and live tactical testing.


Capital Allocation: ₱150,000

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This fund is not for stock picks.

This is for the moments when you choose not to act, because the best decision is sometimes to wait, or give.



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