Panimula: Una ang Test Buy, Handa sa Susunod
Noong August 15 review, sinabi natin na parang bangka sa pantalan ang SCC—naka-angkla pero walang bumubulong na makina. SCC ay steady sa 200-MA pero wala pang hatak ng volume. Diyan muna tayo sa pantalan — handa, pero huwag padalos-dalos.. Ngayon, August 29, sinubukan natin ang maliit na galaw: BUY 400 shares at ₱32.90, eksakto sa ibabaw ng 200-MA support.
Tanong ngayon: ito ba ang simula ng paglayag o simpleng test ng tubig? Tuloy pa rin ang bantay, dahil ang trend ay hindi pa buo at nasa ilalim pa rin ng 50-MA resistance.
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
Date: August 29, 2025
Stock: Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly (primary)
Closing Price: ₱32.90
High: ₱33.25
Low: ₱32.25
20-MA (Short-Term): ₱32.86
50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱33.97
200-MA (Long-Term): ₱32.22
📌 Close is slightly higher than August 22 (₱32.50), confirming price respect sa 200-MA. Pero short- and mid-term averages ay nasa ibabaw pa rin, kaya hindi pa clear ang reversal.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Nasa bottoming phase pa rin, pero may maliit na uptick.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Presyo above 200-MA, value intact.
➡ Verdict: BUY WATCH
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Green candle pero volume average lang.
➡ Verdict: CAUTIOUS
✅ Score: 6/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Breakout trigger ₱34.50 pa rin ang susi.
➡ Verdict: HOLD OFF
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation, Not Noise
₱31.50 stop-loss pa rin valid.
➡ Verdict: OK
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Wala pang full green shift sa weekly candles.
➡ Verdict: NOT YET
✅ Score: 5/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Targets ₱36, ₱38.50, ₱42 ay nananatili.
➡ Verdict: OK
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Pwede magdagdag kung mag-bounce muli sa ₱32.
➡ Verdict: PREPARE
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Start small (test buy done), build core later.
➡ Verdict: START SMALL
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
Still halal-compliant, turnaround setup.
➡ Verdict: ALLOWED
✅ Score: 8/10
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Parang unang salya ng sagwan sa dagat—hindi pa buo ang alon, pero sinubukan na ang tubig. May hawak na tayong maliit na posisyon, pero huwag muna ang buhos lahat; bantayan kung may kasunod na bugso.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Range: ₱32.00–₱33.00 (done with test buy)
📌 Stop-Loss Level: ₱31.50 (hard stop below 200-MA)
📌 Target Prices: ₱36.00, ₱38.50, ₱42.00
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add only sa breakout > ₱34.50
📌 Position Strategy: Layer 1 executed; wait for confirmation
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱75,000 Allocation | Faster Deployment)
-
Layer 1 – Tactical Test Buy (Executed)
₱32.90 | 400 shares | ₱13,160 (~18%)
Rationale: Initial test buy at 200-MA support -
Layer 2 – Support Add
₱32.00 | 500 shares | ₱16,000 (~21%)
Rationale: Add near deeper support bounce -
Layer 3 – Breakout Add
₱34.50 | 600 shares | ₱20,700 (~28%)
Rationale: Add on breakout confirmation above 50-MA -
Layer 4 – Conviction Layer
₱36.50 | 700 shares | ₱25,550 (~34%)
Rationale: Add with strength, conviction play if reversal sustains
👉 Total Commitment: ~₱75,410 (slightly over, adjust Layer 4 down to fit cap).
👉 Remaining Cash Buffer: minimal, but faster deployment executed.
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan (₱75,000 Allocation)
🎯 Target 1: ₱36.00 – Sell 20% (~440 shares)
🎯 Target 2: ₱38.50 – Sell 30% (~660 shares)
🎯 Target 3: ₱42.00 – Sell 30% (~660 shares)
🎯 Target 4: Retain 20% core (~440 shares) for long-term cycle
🔒 Hard Stop: ₱31.50 – Full exit of all shares if broken.
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD / SMALL BUY
✅ Recommendation: Maintain small tactical buy at ₱32–₱33 zone, add only above ₱34.50 breakout.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss firmly set at ₱31.50.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Staged exits at ₱36, ₱38.50, ₱42, with 20% core retained.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Faster layered adds, but still defensive until reversal confirms.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Sa kalakalan, hindi lahat ng galaw ay sabay-sabay; minsan unti-unti lang. SCC reminds us that small, patient steps are better than reckless leaps. Tuloy ang disiplina, tuloy ang tawakkul.
📌 Trade Simulation Update #21
Portfolio: Ethical Turnaround Picks
Allocation: ₱75,000
Active Position: 400 shares @ ₱32.90 (test buy)
Quick Hatol: Nakasagwan na, pero maingat ang padyak.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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Isang tanong ang pumasok sa isip ko habang nakatingin sa chart—“Anong gagawin ko kung may mag-abot sa akin ng isang milyong piso, cash, at walang hinihinging kapalit?”
Walang kondisyon. Walang tanong. Walang habol.
Isang milyong pisong biglaang dumating.
Hindi galing sa sugal. Hindi hiram.
Malinis. Legal. Bigay.
Rizq—kung tutuusin.
Pero ang tanong ay hindi lang “anong bibilhin ko?”
O “saan ko i-invest?”
Kundi—“Kaya ko bang panindigan ang 10-Step Strategy ko, kung ganito kalaki ang hawak ko?”
Capital Allocation: ₱400,000
Objective: This portfolio seeks long-term growth from fundamentally strong, ethically aligned, and ideally Shariah-compliant businesses.
Hindi lang basta technical setup ang basehan—pinag-isipan din kung saan nanggagaling ang kita, at kung ito ba ay halal ang pinagmulan.
Objective: To generate passive income from a selection of halal-screened REITs and dividend-paying companies that pass ethical and Shariah filters.
Ito ang bahagi ng portfolio na tumatanggap ng biyaya habang natutulog ka, pero hindi mula sa haram.
Objective: To capture capital appreciation from undervalued or temporarily beaten-down companies showing signs of recovery—without crossing the ethical line.
Not every good trade is clean, and not every clean trade is good. Kaya dito sinusubok ang balance ng puso at diskarte.
Objective: To execute short- to mid-term tactical trades using ₱10,000 per board lot based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy, with real money and real-time conviction—under the mindset of a Board Lot Warrior.
Hindi ito simulation. Hindi ito paper trade. Ito ang totoong laban, gamit ang disiplina at dasal.
Objective: To maintain spiritual discipline and financial humility by leaving room—intentionally—for:
- 📉 Market patience
- 🤲 Giving opportunities
- ⚠️ Emergency trades
- 🛑 Delayed entry signals
- 💔 Life’s unplanned tests
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