Panimula
Mga kabayan, noong August 24 review, hawak pa ng MA50 si URC at nakalutang pa sa ₱83+. Pero ngayong September 1, tuluyan nang bumigay ang MA20, MA8, at pati MA50—bagsak diretso sa ₱81.05. Dito tayo nagdagdag ng maliit na test buy (Layer 2, 200 shares).
Hindi ito support level per se—execution marker lang talaga natin ang ₱81.05. Ang tunay na bantayan: psychological floor sa ₱80. Pag nabutas, ibang usapan na.
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
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Date: September 1, 2025
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Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
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Exchange: PSE
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Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
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Closing Price: ₱81.05
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High: ₱82.15
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Low: ₱80.60
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20-MA (Short-Term): ₱87.28
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50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱82.51
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200-MA (Long-Term): ₱111.06
📉 Presyo nasa ilalim ng lahat ng MAs. Critical level: ₱80 psychological support.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Clear downtrend bias, lahat ng MAs nasa ibabaw ng presyo.
➡ Verdict: BEARISH WAIT | ✅ Score: 4/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Price at ₱81.05 = below MA8, MA20, MA50, and far from MA200. Wala nang MA support. Execution marker lang ito, hindi actual support.
➡ Verdict: BEARISH POSITION | ✅ Score: 3/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Series of red candles, low conviction volume. Selling pressure dominates.
➡ Verdict: WEAK | ✅ Score: 4/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation
Walang bullish trigger. The ₱81.05 buy = speculative test buy, not confirmed entry.
➡ Verdict: NOT CONFIRMED | ✅ Score: 4/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
₱80 = hard stop. Mabutas yan, exit agad.
➡ Verdict: STRICT SL | ✅ Score: 9/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals
Wala pang reversal color change. Pure red pa rin.
➡ Verdict: NONE | ✅ Score: 3/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Layo pa sa entry ₱94 average. Walang profit-taking opportunity.
➡ Verdict: NONE | ✅ Score: 4/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
No add unless may bounce with green candle above ₱83.
➡ Verdict: WAIT | ✅ Score: 6/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
1,200 shares = ₱110K exposure (73% of ₱150K). May buffer pa, pero medyo mabigat na given weak setup.
➡ Verdict: MODERATE | ✅ Score: 7/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Halal stock, pero walang advantage kung bearish ang trend.
➡ Verdict: HOLD MONITOR | ✅ Score: 7/10
🧮 Total Score: 51/100 (mababa, bumagsak mula 62 → malinaw na deteriorating setup).
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Kung baga sa palaisdaan, nasa pinaka-gitna ng dike si URC—isang maling apak, puwede nang mahulog sa malalim na tubig ng ₱80. Kaya’t handa dapat tumalon pabalik sa ligtas na lupa kung mabutas ito.”
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges: No new adds unless bounce above ₱83 confirmed.
📌 Stop-Loss Level: Hard stop below ₱80.
📌 Target Prices: ₱90–₱92 (relief), ₱100–₱102 (mid target), ₱110–₱112 (long-term ceiling).
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Wag magdagdag basta-basta. Trim agad if bounce reaches ₱90–₱92.
📌 Position Strategy: Defensive hold. Preserve cash buffer.
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱150,000 MONDE Trading Capital | Post-Trade Adjustments)
👉 Guiding Principle: Naka-frontload tayo ng big position agad sa ₱94 (1,000 shares). Dagdag na ₱81.05 test buy ang Layer 2. Kaya kailangan i-restructure ang remaining layers to balance exposure and preserve buffer.
✅ Current Executed Layers
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Layer 1 – Tactical Recovery Buy (Executed July 21, 2025)
₱94.00 | 1,000 shares = ₱94,000
~63% allocation (major starter lot, conviction entry noon sa recovery setup) Trading Simulation #8: Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Trade Review: Weekly Chart as of July 21, 2025 – Layer 1
Layer 2 – Test Buy on Breakdown Retest (Executed Sept 1, 2025)
₱81.05 | 200 shares = ₱16,210
~11% allocation (small entry sa edge ng ₱80 support)Trading Simulation #23: This post.
➡ Total Committed Capital So Far: ₱110,210 (~73% of ₱150K)
➡ Remaining Cash Buffer: ~27% (₱39,790)
📌 Remaining Planned Layers (Conditional Adds)
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Layer 3 – Recovery Reclaim (Above MA20)
₱86–₱87 | 300 shares = ₱25,800
~17% allocation
(Buy only if nakabalik sa ibabaw ng MA20 with strong green volume.) -
Layer 4 – Trend Reclaim Zone
₱90–₱92 | 200 shares = ₱18,000
~12% allocation
(Add kapag stable ang reclaim sa breakdown area at may follow-through.) -
Layer 5 – Full Momentum Add-on
₱95–₱98 | 100 shares = ₱9,500
~6% allocation
(Final add only if confirmed full reversal with strong trend alignment.)
🔑 Summary
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Executed: ₱110,210 (73%)
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Planned Adds: ₱53,300 (remaining ~27%)
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Max Deployment: 100% of ₱150,000 (balanced na dahil frontloaded ang Layer 1)
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Cash Buffer Strategy: Conditional—kung bumagsak below ₱80, preserve cash, huwag nang dagdag.
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
🎯 Target 1 – ₱90–₱92: Exit 25% (relief trim)
🎯 Target 2 – ₱100–₱102: Exit 35% (mid resistance)
🎯 Target 3 – ₱110–₱112: Exit 40% (long-term ceiling near MA200)
🔴 Hard Stop: Below ₱80
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD DEFENSIVE – HIGH RISK
✅ Recommendation: HOLD current 1,200 shares. No further adds until bounce above ₱83.
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop below ₱80 = mandatory cut.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Trim at ₱90–₱92, next at ₱100–₱102, final near ₱110–₱112.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Stay moderate. Do not average down further until reversal proves itself.
⚠️ Bold Reminder: If ₱80 breaks, execute a total exit (zero position). Accept the loss, protect remaining capital, and wait for a healthier setup.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Mga kabayan, sa URC ngayon parang paglalakad sa manipis na tulay—isang maling hakbang, bagsak agad. Disiplina muna, bantay sa ₱80, at huwag magdagdag ng bigat hangga’t walang malinaw na tanda ng pagbabalik.
📌 Trade Simulation Update #23 – September 1, 2025
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URC Trading Capital Allocation: ₱150,000
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Active Position: 1,200 shares (₱91.84 avg = ₱110,210 exposure)
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Ending Position P/L: -₱11,210 (unrealized)
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Quick Hatol: HOLD defensive pero high risk. Cut if ₱80 breaks.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions. | Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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