Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
- Final Stock Recommendation
- Next Steps
I. Introduction
Universal Robina Corporation (URC) is a major player in the Philippine stock market, known for its strong market presence in the food and beverage industry. This review will analyze its price movement using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0 to determine the best trade decision.
Trade Details
- Date: February 17, 2025
- Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
- Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
- Timeframe: Daily
- Closing Price: 63.95
- High: 65.90
- Low: 63.30
- 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 63.30
- 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 94.49
Pullback Under Consideration
- Start of Power Move Date: January 14, 2025
- Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 75.00
- End of Power Move Date: February 12, 2025
- End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 59.70
- Power Move Trend: Bearish
- Power Move Sweet Spot: 68.12 - 71.18
- Market Price To Date: 70.20
- Pullback Level To Date: 69%
Volume Analysis (as of February 17, 2025)
- Closing Volume: 2.49M
- 30-day Volume Average: 2.68M
- 65-day Volume Average: 2.61M
- Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.5 Volume Average): 3.92M
The following analysis will apply our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether URC presents a buy, sell, or hold opportunity.
URC Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025
II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
- The daily chart shows a downtrend phase with URC trading well below its 200-day MA (94.49).
- The price is hovering around the 20-day MA (63.30), signaling a potential short-term consolidation after a steep decline.
- The monthly chart confirms the long-term downtrend, with the 200-MA (113.94) acting as resistance.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal).
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
- The stock is currently below the 200-day MA, indicating a bearish macro trend.
- The price is approaching the 70% retracement level (69%), making it a high-risk zone for long trades unless a reversal occurs.
- Ideal bullish entry should be within the 25%-45% pullback range, meaning the stock is still in a danger zone for continued downside.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Not yet in a favorable entry zone).
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
- A green candle with increased volume was seen on February 17, 2025, indicating short-term buying interest.
- However, breakout volume (3.92M) has not been met, suggesting weak confirmation.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Volume does not yet confirm breakout).
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
- The price is still below the key resistance zone (68.12 - 71.18).
- A confirmed reversal pattern (e.g., higher lows or a strong bullish breakout above the sweet spot) is needed before entry.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of a breakout above 71.18).
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
- If entering a long position, an initial stop-loss should be set below the recent swing low (59.70).
- Risk remains high due to lack of volume confirmation.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Risk is still high for new positions).
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
- No clear color change pattern yet to confirm a trend reversal.
- The stock remains inside a bearish channel with no strong green bar confirmation above key resistance.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Needs clear color change confirmation).
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
- Profit targets should be 75.00 for conservative exits and 80.00 for more aggressive ones.
- However, since an entry is not confirmed, taking profits is not yet applicable.
➡ Verdict: Not applicable yet (Entry not confirmed).
Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
- If the stock reclaims 71.18 with strong volume, a re-entry can be considered.
- Alternatively, a pullback to 60.00 with bullish reversal confirmation could be another re-entry point.
➡ Verdict: Wait (Monitor breakout levels before re-entry).
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
- Core Position: Not recommended yet due to uncertain trend.
- Tactical Entry: Possible near 60.00 if a bullish reversal occurs or above 71.18 with strong volume.
➡ Verdict: Wait (No adjustment needed until a clearer trend forms).
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
- Counter-trend trading is not advisable yet since there hasn’t been a gap-down of more than 5% below the 200-MA or two consecutive large red candles near lows.
➡ Verdict: Avoid Counter-Trend Trading (No clear reversal setup).
III. Final Stock Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT
✅ Recommendation: Wait for a breakout above 71.18 before considering a long position.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss should be set below 59.70 if entering a trade.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target prices at 75.00 (conservative) and 80.00 (aggressive).
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with a small position upon breakout confirmation, then add gradually.
IV. Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders: Avoid buying until a confirmed breakout above 71.18 occurs.
🔹 Long-term investors: May consider waiting for stabilization near 60.00 before adding positions.
🔹 Existing holders: Should monitor breakout confirmation or further downside risks before adjusting positions.
🚨 Final Thought: This is not the ideal entry point yet. A clearer bullish confirmation is required before taking action. 🚨
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Related Readings
- Micro Stock Trader: Comparing the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy vs. Retracement Trading Strategy
- Micro Stock Trader Portfolio Tracker Page
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