Nilalaman
1️⃣ Hindi Basta-Basta Exit
2️⃣ 3 Dahilan Kung Bakit Hindi Tayo Nag-exit Agad
3️⃣ Glossary: Flush Down & Flush zone
4️⃣ Immediate Cut vs Delayed Cut
5️⃣ Active Position
6️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Hindi Basta-Basta Exit
Mga kabayan, malinaw ang bilin sa August 30 review: hard stop sa ₱6.95–₱7.00. Dumating ang Sept 3 candle, at bumagsak nga sa ₱6.93 close. Kung susundin ng mekanikal, tapos na dapat ang biyahe. Pero bakit hindi?
Dahil sa Subok Series, disiplina ay hindi bulag na pagsunod sa presyo. Ang tunay na hatol ay Location + Conviction: price breakdown + strong volume. Wala pa iyon noong Sept 3.
2️⃣ 3 Dahilan Kung Bakit Hindi Tayo Nag-exit Agad
1️⃣ Limitado ang Exposure
Active position: 4,400 shares @ ₱7.15 average = ₱31,456 (~63% of ₱50K). May cash buffer pa tayong ~₱18,500.
2️⃣ Weak Volume Context
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Daily volume Sept 3 = 9.7M
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50-MA average volume = 33.1M
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Breakdown lacked institutional conviction; walang panic exit.
3️⃣ Flush Zone Buffer
As noted on Aug 30, danger flush could extend to ₱6.70–₱6.80. Nasa loob pa nito, kaya hindi pa invalidated ang thesis.
3️⃣ Glossary: Flush Down & Flush Zone
🔻 Flush Down – temporary wick breakdown below support, weak volume, often false signal.
🟠 Flush Zone – buffer under major support where flush downs typically occur; helps filter noise.
📌 Example: Sept 3 close at ₱6.93 = flush down inside the ₱6.70–₱6.80 zone, weak volume = not confirmed breakdown.
4️⃣ Immediate Cut vs Delayed Cut Rule (Location + Conviction)
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Immediate Cut: Weekly close <₱6.80 with strong volume ≥16M (≥50% of 50-MA).
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Delayed Cut: Break <₱6.80 pero weak volume → hold cautiously, observe up to 2 weeks.
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Defensive Hold: If no consecutive red candles and weak volume persists, hold position.
👉 Rule: Exit only if location (₱6.80 break) + conviction (volume ≥16M) align.
5️⃣ Active Position – Trade Simulation Breakdown
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Trade #5 → 400 shares @ ₱7.80 = ₱3,120
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Trade #11 → 1,200 shares @ ₱7.18 = ₱8,616
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Trade #18 → 800 shares @ ₱7.05 = ₱5,640
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Trade #22 → 2,000 shares @ ₱7.04 = ₱14,080
Total = 4,400 shares | ₱7.15 average | ₱31,456 exposure
6️⃣ Closing Reflection
Ang hindi pag-exit sa ₱6.93 ay hindi kahinaan, kundi pagsunod sa prinsipyo: stop-loss = price + volume. Kapag binutas ang ₱6.80 na may lakas na volume, handa tayong magbenta. Pero habang weak flush lang, kapit muna — disiplina at pasensya ang tunay na puhunan.
📌 Special Note – Subok sa Puso Series
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Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
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Date: September 3, 2025
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Active Position: 4,400 shares @ ₱7.15 average = ₱31,456
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Hatol: DEFENSIVE HOLD — Exit only if ₱6.80 breaks with strong volume (≥16M).
🔻 Volume Rules for Exit
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Strong Volume Breakdown = Immediate Cut
– Exit lahat kung price breaks key support (₱6.80) + volume ≥ 50% ng 50-MA volume. -
Weak Volume Breakdown = Delayed Cut
– Kung bumutas below support (₱6.80) pero volume < 50% ng 50-MA, hold cautiously, observe 1–2 weeks. -
Two-Week Confirmation Rule
– Kung may 2 consecutive red weekly candles below support (₱6.80) kahit gradual volume pickup, treat as confirmed breakdown → cut.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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