WLCON stock review using Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Should long-term investors start accumulating now despite weak technicals?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Review
- Final Stock Recommendation
- Next Steps
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Evaluation of Adherence to Strategy
🧭 I. Introduction
TRADE DETAILS
Date: June 9, 2025
Stock: Wilcon Depot, Inc. (WLCON)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Weekly
Closing Price: ₱7.09
High: ₱7.34
Low: ₱7.06
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱7.20
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱22.45
WLCON continues to trade significantly below its long-term moving average and is currently testing its short-term 20-week MA from below. Volume has slightly picked up but remains modest compared to major downtrend periods. This review is guided by our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant, with a focus on patient accumulation and value-zone layering.
📈 II. Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
(Adapted for Long-Term Focus)
1. Market State & Trend Context
WLCON remains in a confirmed long-term downtrend, having declined from above ₱30 in early 2023 to its current levels below ₱8. It is currently attempting to stabilize just beneath its declining 20-week moving average.
➡ Verdict: HOLD/WAIT
2. Price Position & Value Zones
The price sits significantly below the 200-week MA (₱22.45), suggesting a deep discount from long-term valuations. However, price is still not showing strong accumulation signs or base formation yet.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
3. Power Bars & Volume Confirmation
No recent power bar breakout is evident on the weekly chart. Although we’ve seen some green volume bars, they do not yet constitute a confirmed shift in institutional buying behavior.
➡ Verdict: HOLD/WAIT
4. Entry Confirmation (Fundamental & Technical)
Fundamentally, WLCON remains a dominant player in its sector. However, from a technical standpoint, we await more decisive support-building and a base confirmation on longer timeframes.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
5. Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation Point
A soft stop for long-term investors may be set near the ₱6.00 psychological level. Breach below that without rebound may call for re-evaluation.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
6. Color Change / Reversal Signals
We observe minor weekly green candles, but no sustained momentum or “color change” has formed to imply a reversal.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
7. Profit-Taking Strategy
Given the long-term nature of this plan, target zones for partial profit-taking may include ₱10.00 (nearest former support), ₱12.00 (50-week MA), and ₱16.00 (major structure midpoint).
➡ Verdict: HOLD – No trigger yet
8. Re-Entry Plans
Not yet relevant as no prior successful breakout has been initiated. First buy zone consideration may begin only once a base confirms near current levels.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
9. Position Size Strategy (Board Lot Conversion & Layering Plan)
Board lot is 100 shares. Long-term investors may consider starting with minimal layers of 100 to 200 shares only if price dips near ₱6.00, and prepare larger allocations if momentum begins to shift back above ₱8.00.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for better layer trigger zones
10. Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities
While WLCON may be fundamentally solid, the technical backdrop lacks ethical trade setup justification at this point. We do not recommend counter-trend buys while the weekly trend remains downward.
➡ Verdict: NOT YET
✅ III. Final Stock Recommendation
Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD/WAIT
📅 Recommendation: Hold and monitor price behavior near ₱6.00–₱6.50 zone. Wait for stronger signs of support-building and institutional accumulation.
🔢 Risk Management: Monitor soft stop below ₱6.00 for downside protection.
💰 Profit-Taking Strategy: Consider taking profits in stages at ₱10.00, ₱12.00, and ₱16.00 once position is established and confirmed.
📆 Position Size Strategy: For investors with limited capital, delay layering until more clarity emerges. Use 100-share entries only after stabilization or a base appears.
🔄 IV. Next Steps
Short-term traders → No tactical trade opportunity yet. Avoid premature entry until clear breakout signals above ₱8.00 are seen.
Long-term investors → Monitor closely. Prepare to layer 100-share blocks if support confirms around ₱6.00 with improving volume.
Existing holders → Hold. Reduce only if new lows below ₱6.00 breach your soft stop threshold.
🧩 V. Layered Accumulation Plan for WLCON
(Based on Php3,000 Capital and 100-Share Board Lot)
Given the 100-share board lot requirement and a cautious stance due to WLCON's ongoing downtrend, we outline a 3-layer accumulation strategy suited for small capital and long-term patience.
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Layer 1 (Initial Position – Executed June 9, 2025):
Bought 100 shares @ ₱7.31 = ₱731.00
Rationale: Modest starter position to build presence near 20-week MA resistance zone. -
Layer 2 (Pending GTC Order):
Buy 100 shares @ ₱7.00 = ₱700.00
Rationale: Averaging down near minor support and psychological level. -
Layer 3 (Reserve Capital):
Buy 100 shares @ ₱6.25–₱6.50 (monitor price behavior) = ₱650.00
Rationale: Final layer at expected soft support zone, contingent on volume and stabilization. -
Total Projected Capital Use: ~₱2,081
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Cash Buffer: ~₱900 (30% of capital remains for price rejection or breakout scenario flexibility)
⚖️ This layered plan prioritizes low-cost exposure and disciplined patience, as WLCON remains technically weak but potentially forming a long-term bottom.
📊 VI. Evaluation of Recent Action for Adherence to the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant
Action Evaluated:
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Entry on June 9, 2025 @ ₱7.31 for 100 shares
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Placed GTC Order @ ₱7.00 for 100 shares
Using a 10-point scoring system per strategy step, we evaluated our recent action against each component of the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant:
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Market State & Trend Context received a score of 6 out of 10. While the downtrend is acknowledged, entering before a base or reversal makes the trade early, though not entirely misaligned.
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Price Position & Value Zones earned 7 out of 10, as the entry was just beneath the 20-week MA, which may act as short-term resistance. However, it’s within range of technical interest.
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Power Bars & Volume Confirmation scored 4 out of 10 due to the absence of any clear power bar or volume spike at entry.
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Entry Confirmation was given 5 out of 10. While the fundamentals are acceptable, there was no strong technical trigger to justify the timing.
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Stop-Loss / Thesis Violation scored 7 out of 10, with a soft stop anticipated near ₱6.00, a logical psychological level.
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Color Change / Reversal Signal earned only 4 out of 10, as no significant reversal pattern or weekly trend shift has yet emerged.
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Profit-Taking Strategy received 6 out of 10, as it is pre-planned in the broader post but not immediately relevant during the entry.
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Re-Entry Plan was scored 8 out of 10 because the GTC order at ₱7.00 represents a clear follow-up strategy and cost-averaging plan.
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Position Size Strategy achieved a perfect 10 out of 10, demonstrating full compliance with board lot requirements, small exposure, and capital preservation.
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Ethical/Counter-Trend Opportunities earned 6 out of 10, as there was no confirmed setup, but the entry still fits the long-term patient accumulation framework.
Final Total Score: 63 out of 100
Interpretation:
Our Layer 1 entry on June 9, 2025, reflects a cautious yet slightly early move into WLCON. While it aligns with long-term accumulation intent, several technical signals such as volume, trend reversal, and power bars were not yet present. As such, this position is considered a speculative but structurally acceptable initial buy under our long-term strategy.
🚨 Final Thought: No stock moves up without demand. Patience is key—allow the stock to form a true base before engaging in new positions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
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