Sunday, January 26, 2025

MER (Manila Electric Company) Stock Analysis: January 24, 2025

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Evaluating MER’s Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Trade Details

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Market: PSE (Philippine Stock Exchange)
  • Timeframe: 1-Day (Daily)
  • Closing Price: ₱486.00 (-1.42%)
  • Day’s Range: ₱486.00 - ₱494.40
  • 20-MA: ₱484.71 (Short-Term Trend)
  • 200-MA: ₱421.92 (Long-Term Trend)
  • Volume: 164.98K (SMA 9)
Manila Electric Company (MER) stock chart with moving averages and retracement levels marked for analysis.

MER stock price analysis on January 24, 2025, showing key pullback levels and trend indicators.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • Trend: MER remains in an uptrend as the price is above both the 20-day moving average (₱484.71) and the 200-day moving average (₱421.92).
  • Positioning: The price remains in a consolidation phase near the previous resistance of ₱500. However, a pullback from recent highs suggests some short-term selling pressure.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Moving Averages & Key Levels

  • The price is trading slightly above the 20-MA, indicating that the short-term trend remains intact.
  • The 50% Sweet Spot Pullback level is ₱476.85, which could serve as a potential support zone.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • No strong green power bars are present in the latest price action.
  • The recent red candles indicate a retracement, but the price is still holding above the 20-MA, suggesting a healthy pullback rather than a reversal.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The price is currently near the 25% Sweet Spot Pullback (₱490.18).
  • If a bullish reversal forms in the next session, it could signal an entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Stop-loss should be set below the 50% pullback level (₱476.85).
  • A deeper retracement towards ₱450.20 (100% pullback) would indicate a trend failure.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • A bullish reversal candle (green bar) near the 25%-50% pullback zone would confirm a potential buy signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • First target: ₱503.50 (Recent high)
  • Second target: ₱510+ (Breakout potential)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If MER retests the ₱476.85 level and bounces, another entry opportunity may emerge.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger positions can be taken near the 33%-50% retracement zone (₱476-₱490).
  • If the price falls below ₱450, the trend would likely be invalidated.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • Since MER is in an uptrend, counter-trend trades are not advisable unless a complete trend reversal occurs.

Final Trade Assessment

✅ Bullish Outlook: Despite the pullback, the price remains above key support levels and the short-term moving average.

⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: ₱484.71 (20-MA), ₱476.85 (50% pullback)
  • Resistance: ₱503.50 (previous high), ₱510 (breakout level)

📌 Strategy Moving Forward:

  • Watch for a bullish reversal candle near ₱476-₱490.
  • Enter with confirmation and set a stop-loss below ₱476.85.
  • First target: ₱503.50; Second target: ₱510+.

Next Steps

  • Traders should monitor if MER stabilizes near the 25%-50% pullback zone.
  • A bounce above ₱490 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
  • A break below ₱476 would indicate further downside risk.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Saturday, January 25, 2025

Evaluating RFM Corporation (PSE) Closing Chart Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Stock: RFM Corporation (PSE)

  • Date: January 24, 2025

  • Closing Price: 3.92 PHP

  • Daily Change: -0.05 (-1.26%)

  • Volume: 182K

  • 20-Day Moving Average (MA20): 3.92 PHP

  • 200-Day Moving Average (MA200): 3.77 PHP

Technical chart of RFM Corporation with moving averages and retracement levels.

RFM Corporation (PSE) closing chart analysis as of January 24, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • The stock is currently above the 200-day MA, indicating an uptrend.

  • The price is hovering around the 20-day MA, showing short-term consolidation after a recent move up.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to MAs & Key Levels

  • Price is at the 20-MA level, which acts as dynamic support.

  • The 200-MA is far below, reinforcing the bullish long-term trend.

  • Pullback Zones Identified:

    • 0% Pullback: 3.70 PHP

    • 50% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.87 PHP

    • 75% Bullish Reversal Pullback: 3.96 PHP

    • 100% Pullback: 4.04 PHP

Step 3: Identify Power Bars & Retracement Strength

  • The price recently broke out above key resistance levels and is now pulling back.

  • A mid-range retracement is in progress, aligning with a 50% pullback zone.

  • No significant bearish power bars yet, suggesting support might hold.

Step 4: Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies

  • The stock is testing the 20-MA as support.

  • A reversal signal (e.g., a green candlestick with volume confirmation) at the 50%-75% retracement zone could be an entry trigger.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments

  • Logical Stop-Loss: Below 3.87 PHP (50% pullback).

  • Aggressive Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP (0% pullback), which invalidates the uptrend.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation

  • If the next candle turns green with a bullish close above the 20-MA, this would strengthen the buying signal.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets

  • Short-term target: 3.96 PHP (75% pullback level)

  • Medium-term target: 4.04 PHP (previous high, 100% pullback level)

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks

  • If the stock bounces off the 50% retracement (3.87 PHP) and then dips again, a re-entry could be possible.

  • A break below 3.70 PHP would invalidate the bullish setup.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management

  • Larger position size if the price holds above the 20-MA.

  • Smaller position size if the price approaches the 50% retracement zone.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails

  • A 100% retracement breakdown (below 3.70 PHP) would suggest a trend failure, triggering a bearish stance.

Final Trade Assessment

  • Bullish Bias: The uptrend remains intact, as long as the price holds above the 50% pullback level (3.87 PHP) and the 20-MA (3.92 PHP).

  • Key Level to Watch: A strong green reversal candle at or above 3.87 PHP with volume confirmation.

  • Trade Plan:

    • Entry: If bullish confirmation appears near 3.87 PHP.

    • Stop-Loss: Below 3.70 PHP.

    • Target: 3.96 PHP (short-term) and 4.04 PHP (full recovery).

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Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) – End of Week 4 Update (January 25, 2025)

Contents:

  • Phase 2 of Strategy Testing: Strict Execution Begins
  • 1. Portfolio Performance
  • 2. Portfolio Allocation & Capital Deployment
  • 3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress
  • 4. Market Observations & Next Steps
  • 5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Phase 2 of Strategy Testing: Strict Execution Begins

With four weeks of live testing behind us, we have formally transitioned to Phase 2 of our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. This phase focuses on expanding our trading universe while maintaining absolute discipline—no deviations, no experimentation.

As of January 24, 2025, we have executed 22 trades, with Trade 5 of the planned 20-trade Phase 2 sequence currently underway. Despite an early drawdown, we remain committed to the systematic execution of our strategy.

Portfolio summary showing trading performance, stock allocations, and realized losses for BETA as of January 24, 2025.

Budget Ethical Trading Account (BETA) Portfolio Summary as of January 24, 2025

1. Portfolio Performance

  • Performance Score: 8.2/10 (Consistent adherence to strategy with slight early-stage drawdowns.)

  • Starting Capital for Phase 2: ₱22,200.00

  • Current Portfolio Value: ₱31,483.92

  • Realized Loss: ₱-1,516.08 (-4.82%)

  • Unrealized Loss: ₱-97.19 (-0.98%)

While the drawdown reflects the challenges of early-stage execution, it is a necessary part of refining our system and testing risk parameters. The key takeaway remains: we are following the plan exactly as designed.

2. Portfolio Allocation & Capital Deployment

  • Allocation & Deployment Score: 7.8/10 (Effective allocation with potential for further diversification.)

  • Cash Balance: 39% (Liquidity maintained for flexibility)

  • Stock Holdings:

    • Universal Robina Corporation (URC): 21%

    • RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR): 23%

    • DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR): 10%

    • Premiere Island Power REIT Corporation (PREIT): 7%

    • Other Stocks (MONDE, ALLHC, ATI): 0%

The allocation reflects our move toward broader diversification among Shariah-compliant stocks and REITs, in line with our Phase 2 objective of testing the strategy across multiple tickers.

3. Phase 2 Trading Parameters & Progress

  • Trading Execution Score: 8.7/10 (Excellent compliance with entry and exit rules.)

  • Objective: Execute 20 trades with strict adherence to the strategy.

  • Key Holdings at Phase 2 Entry:

    • URC: 50 shares

    • RCR: 1,000 shares

  • Number of Trades Executed in Phase 2: 4/20 completed

We are sticking to our strategy without deviation, ensuring every trade aligns with our retracement-based entry zones, stop-loss adjustments, and position sizing rules.

4. Market Observations & Next Steps

  • Market Adaptation & Strategy Adjustment Score: 8.1/10 (Good trade adjustments with minimal impact from market fluctuations.)

  • Drawdown Management: While early results show a 4.82% realized loss, unrealized losses remain minimal, reinforcing the importance of risk control.

  • Trade Adjustments:

    • URC continues to be a core position, and we will assess further retracements for potential reinforcement.

    • RCR remains a high-priority holding due to its technical setup and alignment with the Modified 10-Step Trading Strategy.

    • DDMPR and PREIT holdings will be monitored for additional scaling opportunities.

  • Upcoming Trades: The next batch of trades will further diversify the portfolio, keeping strict adherence to the system’s rules.

5. Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead

Overall Execution & Strategy Adherence Score: 8.4/10 (Steady progression with disciplined execution and adaptability.)

Phase 1 validated our strategy's framework and risk controls, even as minor missteps shaped our adjustments. Now, Phase 2 is fully operational, and the next 16 trades will determine how effectively our strategy performs across different market conditions.

Our focus remains on data-driven execution, ensuring that each trade strictly follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. We will continue monitoring, refining, and adapting while maintaining a disciplined, ethical trading approach.

With 4 of the planned 20 trades completed, we are fully committed to seeing this phase through with precision and discipline. The next update will provide insights into how our strategy performs as we progress through the remainder of Phase 2.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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