Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 9 – Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps


Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 9/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks (Step 8)
  • Signal: Price testing key support at ₱6.95 near 50% pullback level
  • Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
  • Shares Bought: 500 out of 900 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱6.95
  • Position Size: 56% Allocation

๐Ÿ“Œ Chart Overview:

  • Price is testing key support at ₱6.80-₱7.00 (retracement zone).
  • 50% pullback level at ₱7.04 was breached, bringing price close to the 0% pullback zone at ₱6.80.
  • Trend remains bearish, as price is below the 20-MA (₱7.68) and 200-MA (₱9.79).
  • Volume surged to 4.528M, indicating significant trading activity.
MONDE Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MONDE Trade No. 9/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MONDE remains in a downtrend, with price below both moving averages.
  • Attempted stabilization near ₱7.00, but selling pressure remains strong.
  • Needs a strong bounce above ₱7.10 to confirm support.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry near ₱6.95 aligns with key support and pullback levels.
  • However, the stock is below both moving averages, meaning upside remains limited.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • Recent candles lack strong green power bars, indicating weak momentum.
  • Price struggling to hold support, raising the risk of further downside.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligns with retracement structure, but confirmation is needed above ₱7.00-₱7.10.
  • Break below ₱6.80 would invalidate the trade setup.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱6.80 to control downside risk.
  • A break below this level would weaken the trade significantly.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish reversal pattern yet.
  • A green candle above ₱7.10 would validate a potential recovery.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱7.28 (100% pullback zone).
  • Final target: ₱7.68 (20-MA resistance level).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • Re-entry near support at ₱6.95 aligns with the strategy.
  • A bounce above ₱7.10 would confirm strength for scaling up.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 56% of the position has been deployed, leaving room for scaling up.
  • Further additions should be made only above ₱7.10-₱7.28.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but entry in a bearish trend requires caution.
  • Failure to hold ₱6.80 invalidates the setup and necessitates an exit.

๐Ÿ“Œ Overall Strategy Score: 67/100
๐Ÿ“Œ Summary: The entry aligns with support, but confirmation above ₱7.10-₱7.28 is needed to maintain bullish bias.


Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.7/10

Trade Execution: Entry positioned near key support level, aligning with re-entry criteria.

Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱6.80 ensures controlled downside risk.

Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱7.28, scaling out at ₱7.68.

Position Size Strategy: 56% Allocation, leaving room for re-entries or scaling up.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ“Œ Monitor price action near ₱7.10-₱7.28. If MONDE holds this level, consider scaling up.

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch for weakness below ₱6.80. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱6.80.

๐Ÿ“Œ Look for re-entry opportunities. If MONDE retests ₱6.80 and holds, consider adding more shares.

๐Ÿšจ Conclusion: Trade No. 9 remains valid with moderate conviction, but confirmation of strength above ₱7.10 is critical for a successful outcome. ๐Ÿšจ



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 8 – Manila Electric Company (MER)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps


Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 8/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Tactical Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price near 50% retracement support (₱476.85)
  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Shares Bought: 10 out of 20 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱475.00
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

MER Trade No. 8/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 6/10

  • Market phase: MER is in a range-bound phase between ₱450.20 (support) and ₱503.50 (resistance).
  • Trend: Short-term bearish after failing to hold above the 20-MA.
  • Structure: A breakdown below the 50% retracement (₱476.85) suggests further downside risk.
    Verdict: Moderate risk – Needs recovery above ₱476.85 to confirm strength.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Price is below the 20-MA (₱485.86), indicating short-term weakness.
  • Price is near the 50% retracement level (₱476.85), a key support zone.
    Verdict: Good support test, but trend bias remains weak.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 5/10

  • Today’s red candle shows selling pressure.
  • No strong green bar confirming support yet.
    Verdict: Weak confirmation – entry is speculative.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱475.00 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱476.85).
  • Price action stability is uncertain—failure to hold may lead to ₱450.20.
    Verdict: Decent entry point, but further weakness is possible.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱472.00 (previous low).
  • Limits downside risk while allowing minor fluctuations.
    Verdict: Good risk management—tight stop placement.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 5/10

  • No bullish reversal candle yet.
  • A green close above ₱476.85 is needed to confirm entry validity.
    Verdict: No confirmation—entry remains speculative.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

  • Target 1: ₱485.86 (20-MA).
  • Target 2: ₱503.50 (previous resistance).
    Verdict: Profit-taking levels align with resistance zones.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

  • Possible re-entry at ₱450.20 if support fails.
  • Adding exposure above ₱485.86 remains an option.
    Verdict: Opportunities exist but require confirmation.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 6/10

  • Half allocation used, keeping room for adjustments.
  • Adding the remaining 10 shares only if ₱476.85 holds.
    Verdict: Position sizing is cautious but speculative.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 8/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade yet, but failure below ₱472.00 could lead to a deeper pullback.
    Verdict: Risk is manageable, but caution is needed.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.8/10 (Moderate Risk)

Trade Execution: The entry at ₱475.00 is aligned with key retracement levels but lacks strong bullish confirmation.

Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱472.00 ensures a controlled downside.

Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱485.86, scaling out at ₱503.50.

Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, leaving flexibility for further adjustments.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ“Œ Monitor price action near ₱476.85. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch for weakness below ₱472.00. If price fails to hold support, consider exiting earlier.

๐Ÿ“Œ Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱450.20, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.

๐Ÿšจ Final Thought: MER’s price action remains uncertain, with a need for a strong green candle above ₱476.85 to validate this entry. If support fails, expect a retest of ₱450.20. Trade cautiously. ๐Ÿšจ



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 7 – Tactical Entry for MREIT Inc. (MREIT)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps


Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 7/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Tactical Entry
  • Signal: Price testing 50% retracement level resistance
  • Stock: MREIT Inc. (MREIT)
  • Shares Bought: 200 out of 400 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱13.50
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation
MREIT Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MREIT Trade No. 7/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart



Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Each step is scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with the strategy.

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context – Score: 7/10

  • Market phase: MREIT is range-bound between ₱13.18 (support) and ₱13.61 (50% retracement resistance).
  • Trend: Sideways with slight bullish bias after holding above ₱13.18.
  • Structure: Higher lows forming, but resistance remains strong at ₱13.61.
    Verdict: Moderate strength – A confirmed breakout is still needed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels – Score: 8/10

  • Price is above the 200-MA (₱13.21), indicating long-term bullish stability.
  • Price is testing the 50% retracement at ₱13.61, which is a major decision point for continuation or rejection.
    Verdict: Good setup, but needs breakout confirmation above ₱13.61.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength – Score: 6/10

  • No strong green power bar today. Volume increased, but price remains stuck below ₱13.61.
  • Buyers are defending the range but haven’t broken resistance.
    Verdict: Weak confirmation – momentum needs to improve.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels – Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱13.50 is slightly below the 50% retracement level (₱13.61), which is a tactical but unconfirmed level.
  • A breakout above ₱13.61 is needed to validate the entry.
    Verdict: Decent risk-reward, but requires confirmation.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments – Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱13.30 (previous support level).
  • Ensures controlled risk while allowing price fluctuation within the range.
    Verdict: Good risk management – effective stop placement.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation – Score: 6/10

  • Today’s candle is neutral with no decisive movement.
  • A strong green bar tomorrow would confirm the bullish case.
    Verdict: Lack of a clear confirmation bar is a concern.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets – Score: 8/10

  • Target 1: ₱13.83 (75% retracement level).
  • Target 2: ₱14.04 (100% pullback level).
  • Exit plan is aligned with major resistance zones.
    Verdict: Profit-taking plan is well-structured.

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks – Score: 7/10

  • Possible re-entry zone at ₱13.18 (0% retracement) if price dips.
  • Adding on strength if ₱13.61 breaks is also an option.
    Verdict: Opportunities exist but require more patience.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management – Score: 7/10

  • Half of the allocation was bought at ₱13.50, allowing flexibility.
  • **Adding the remaining 200 shares only if price confirms above ₱13.61.
    Verdict: Well-managed entry sizing strategy.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails – Score: 9/10

  • No counter-trend trade needed since MREIT is range-bound.
  • The stop-loss below ₱13.30 limits downside exposure.
    Verdict: Strong adherence to trend-following principles.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.4/10 (Moderate Setup)

Trade Execution: The entry at ₱13.50 is within the retracement range but lacks a confirmed breakout.

Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱13.30 ensures a controlled downside.

Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target at ₱13.83, scaling out at ₱14.04.

Position Size Strategy: 1/2 allocation used, keeping room for further adjustments.


Next Steps

๐Ÿ“Œ Monitor price action near ₱13.61. If price holds above this level, consider adding exposure.

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch for weakness below ₱13.30. If price fails to break out and momentum weakens, consider exiting earlier.

๐Ÿ“Œ Look for re-entry opportunities. If price retraces back to ₱13.18, a second tactical entry can be evaluated.

๐Ÿšจ Final Thought: MREIT’s price action remains neutral-to-bullish, but a decisive move above ₱13.61 is required to justify further buying. If resistance holds, expect sideways consolidation. ๐Ÿšจ



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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