Monday, January 27, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 6 – Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 6/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Momentum Entry
  • Signal: Break above the 20-MA with strong bullish momentum
  • Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱17.04
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • ATI closed at ₱17.50 (+0.69%), maintaining its breakout structure.
  • The stock surged above the 20-MA (₱16.82), confirming short-term trend reversal.
  • 200-MA (₱18.61) serves as the next major resistance level.
  • Volume at 77.9K suggests steady accumulation.
ATI Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

ATI Trade No. 6/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 8/10

  • ATI is transitioning from a downtrend into a potential uptrend.
  • Break above the 20-MA signals trend reversal, but confirmation above ₱18.00 is needed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Price reclaimed the 20-MA (₱16.82), signaling short-term strength.
  • The next resistance is at the 200-MA (₱18.61), which must be cleared for further upside.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 9/10

  • Strong bullish price action with a breakout candlestick.
  • Momentum suggests continuation, provided volume remains steady.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 8/10

  • Entry was well-timed as the price confirmed strength above ₱17.00.
  • A retracement to ₱16.50 would offer another entry opportunity.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss set below ₱16.40 to minimize risk.
  • A breakdown below this level invalidates the trade setup.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 8/10

  • Green candlestick formation confirms buying pressure.
  • Needs follow-through above ₱17.50 to confirm continuation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 9/10

  • First target: ₱18.50 (near the 200-MA).
  • Final target: ₱19.50-₱20.00 (key resistance zone).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • A retest of ₱16.80-₱17.00 would offer another entry.
  • Breakout above ₱18.00 justifies scaling into the position.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes above ₱18.00.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱18.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 6/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but caution is needed near ₱18.50 resistance.
  • Failure to hold above ₱16.50 would weaken the bullish setup.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 80/100
📌 Summary: Trade was well-positioned on a momentum breakout, with further upside potential if price clears ₱18.50.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 8.0/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a breakout level, aligning with trend reversal.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱16.40 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱18.50, scaling out at ₱19.50-₱20.00.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱18.00-₱18.50. If ATI holds this level, consider scaling up.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱16.50. If momentum weakens, reassess the trade and exit below ₱16.40.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If ATI retests ₱16.80-₱17.00 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 6 remains strong, with bullish momentum. A move above ₱18.50 would confirm further upside. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 5 – MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

Trade Details

  • Trade No.: 5/20
  • Date: January 27, 2025
  • Action: Buy
  • Entry Type: Pullback Entry
  • Signal: Price retracing to key support near the 200-MA and retracement zone
  • Stock: MacroAsia Corporation (MAC)
  • Shares Bought: 400 out of 800 allocated
  • Entry Price: ₱5.58
  • Position Size: 1/2 of target allocation

📌 Chart Overview:

  • MAC closed at ₱5.16 (-6.52%), dropping below key moving averages.
  • Price rejected near the 20-MA (₱5.44) and the 200-MA (₱5.31), showing weakness.
  • 50% pullback at ₱6.33 remains a major resistance area.
  • Support near the 0% pullback level at ₱4.96 is now in play.
MAC Closing Daily Chart with moving averages and retracement levels for trade evaluation on January 27, 2025.

MAC Trade No. 5/20 – Post-Trade Analysis Chart


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

(Each step scored out of 10 based on trade alignment with strategy.)

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context - Score: 6/10

  • MAC remains in a corrective phase after a prior uptrend.
  • Failure to hold above moving averages suggests continued selling pressure.
  • A reversal setup is not yet confirmed.

Step 2: Assess Price Position Relative to Key Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry at ₱5.58 was near the 200-MA (₱5.31) but failed to hold.
  • Price is now testing the lower range of the pullback zone, increasing downside risk.

Step 3: Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 5/10

  • Bearish candle with increased volume confirms stronger selling pressure.
  • Price needs a strong green candle above ₱5.30-₱5.40 to validate a reversal.

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Retracement Levels - Score: 7/10

  • Entry aligned with a logical support level, but price closed weak.
  • A retest of ₱4.96 is possible if no recovery occurs.

Step 5: Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 9/10

  • Stop-loss placed below ₱5.00 ensures controlled downside risk.
  • Break below ₱4.96 invalidates the trade.

Step 6: Color Change as a Secondary Confirmation - Score: 5/10

  • No clear bullish color change yet.
  • A green candle above ₱5.40 is needed for confirmation.

Step 7: Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First target: ₱5.80-₱6.00 (short-term resistance).
  • Final target: ₱6.33-₱6.50 (major resistance).

Step 8: Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 6/10

  • Re-entry near ₱5.16 may be possible, but a breakdown below ₱5.00 negates the setup.
  • Another opportunity exists above ₱5.40-₱5.50 if strength returns.

Step 9: Tactical Position Management - Score: 7/10

  • 1/2 position deployed, leaving room for scaling if price stabilizes.
  • Further exposure should only be added above ₱5.40-₱5.50.

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 5/10

  • Not a counter-trend trade, but weakness below ₱5.00 signals the need for caution.
  • Price needs to reclaim ₱5.40 to justify holding the position.

📌 Overall Strategy Score: 65/100

📌 Summary: Trade entered at a reasonable support zone but failed to hold, requiring immediate risk management decisions.

Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 6.5/10

✅ Trade Execution: Entry positioned at a retracement level, but breakdown occurred.

✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss at ₱4.96 ensures controlled downside risk.

✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at ₱5.80, scaling out at ₱6.33-₱6.50.

✅ Position Size Strategy: 1/2 Allocation, keeping flexibility for re-entries.

Next Steps

📌 Monitor price action near ₱5.16-₱5.30. If MAC holds this level, consider holding the position.

📌 Watch for weakness below ₱5.00. If momentum weakens, consider cutting losses.

📌 Look for re-entry opportunities. If MAC retests ₱5.40 and holds, consider adding more shares.

🚨 Conclusion: Trade No. 5 remains weak unless MAC reclaims ₱5.40-₱5.50. If price fails to hold above ₱5.00, an exit is necessary to minimize risk. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Sunday, January 26, 2025

Tactical Entry Decision for MAC – January 27, 2025: A Calculated Risk Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Tactical Entry Setup
  • Risk vs. Reward Analysis
  • Trade Execution Plan
  • Final Tactical Entry Decision
  • Next Steps

Introduction

This trade analysis focuses on a high-conviction tactical entry for MacroAsia Corporation (PSE: MAC) based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy. Unlike a full-position entry, this trade is a calculated risk, leveraging technical levels to maximize potential upside while minimizing exposure to downside risk.

We intend to enter 400 shares, which represents 50% of our planned 800-share allocation, in a critical price zone where MAC is trading between the 20-day moving average (20-MA) and the 200-day moving average (200-MA). The goal is to take a strategic position while ensuring that we have room to adjust if price action changes.

MAC Daily Chart showing Tactical Entry between 200-MA and 20-MA

MAC Tactical Entry Decision – Risk-Managed Buy Plan Using the Hybrid 10-Step


Tactical Entry Setup

MAC is currently trading at ₱5.52, sitting just above the 200-MA at ₱5.31 and the 20-MA at ₱5.45. This zone often acts as a critical decision area, where price either rebounds strongly or breaks down further.

A double bottom pattern appears to be forming, with two distinct troughs at ₱4.96, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. However, for this pattern to fully confirm, price must break above ₱6.00 and sustain momentum toward ₱6.33, where strong resistance exists.

The reason for considering a tactical entry now is that the 20-MA and 200-MA are converging, which often signals a high-probability price action zone. Buying within this area allows us to take advantage of a low-risk, high-reward setup while keeping a strict stop-loss strategy in place.

Risk vs. Reward Analysis

The stop-loss for this trade is set at ₱5.20, which is just below the key swing low. If the price breaks below this level, it would invalidate the bullish setup and confirm further downside risk. The first profit target is at ₱6.00, which marks the neckline resistance of the double bottom formation. If price breaks above this level, the second target is ₱6.33, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its previous downtrend.

If MAC reaches ₱6.00, it represents an 8.69% gain from our entry. If the price extends toward ₱6.33, the profit potential rises to 14.67%. On the downside, if the stop-loss at ₱5.20 is hit, we would incur a 5.80% loss.

This means the risk-to-reward ratio for the first target is approximately 1.5:1, while for the second target, it is 2.5:1, making this a favorable setup with more upside potential than downside risk.

However, if MAC fails to break above ₱6.00 and faces selling pressure, the trade could stall, leading to a potential reversal toward ₱5.00 or lower. This is why strict risk management is necessary, and we will exit the trade if the stop-loss is triggered.

Trade Execution Plan

To manage risk effectively, we will execute this trade in two parts.

First, we will enter 400 shares between ₱5.31 and ₱5.52. This represents 50% of our total planned 800-share position. By starting with a smaller position, we reduce exposure in case of a false breakout while still participating in a potential bullish move.

Second, we will only add the remaining 400 shares if MAC breaks above ₱6.00 with strong volume confirmation. This ensures that we only commit fully to the trade once bullish momentum is validated.

The stop-loss is strictly set at ₱5.20, which will protect against downside risk. If MAC closes below this level, we immediately exit the trade, avoiding further losses.

The profit-taking strategy is to sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if price reaches the first target. The remaining 200 shares will be sold at ₱6.33 if momentum continues. If the price struggles to hold ₱6.00, we will adjust the plan accordingly to protect gains.

Final Tactical Entry Decision

This is a strategic and calculated risk trade with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

Reasons why we are taking the trade:

  • The double bottom pattern is forming, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
  • The 200-MA is acting as strong support, making this an attractive buy zone.
  • The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a potential upside of 14.67% and a limited downside of 5.80%.
  • A break above ₱6.00 would confirm a bullish breakout, which is why we are keeping 50% of our allocation in reserve.

Risks that need to be considered:

  • The breakout is not yet confirmed.
  • A false breakout could lead to another rejection at ₱6.00, causing the price to reverse.
  • If MAC breaks below ₱5.30, it may head toward ₱5.00 or lower, invalidating the bullish setup.

The best way to manage this risk is by keeping our stop-loss strict at ₱5.20 and only committing the second half of the position if MAC confirms the breakout above ₱6.00.

Next Steps

For traders executing this setup:

  • Buy 400 shares within ₱5.31-₱5.52.
  • Set a stop-loss at ₱5.20 and do not lower it.
  • Sell 200 shares at ₱6.00 if the price reaches the first target.
  • Sell the remaining 200 shares at ₱6.33 if the breakout sustains.
  • Only add another 400 shares if MAC breaks ₱6.00 with strong volume.

For those who prefer a more conservative approach, it is advisable to wait for MAC to confirm the breakout above ₱6.00 before entering.

If MAC fails to sustain momentum and shows signs of weakness, we will reassess the trade and decide whether to exit early to protect capital.

This is a high-reward trade with moderate risk, but strict discipline is required to ensure a successful execution.


Related Post:

Stock Price Review: MAC Daily Chart – Buy or Sell Decision – January 24, 2025


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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