Friday, January 24, 2025

Evaluation of Trade No. 2 – DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR)

Contents:

  • Trade Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

As part of our planned 20 test trades using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we executed our second trade on January 23, 2025, with DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR). Below is a detailed evaluation of the trade, analyzing our entry decision, market conditions, and trade management.

Technical analysis chart of DDMPR with retracement levels, moving averages, and buy entry.

DDMPR Daily Chart Showing Key Retracement Levels and Trade Entry.


Trade No. 2 Details

  • Trade No.: 2/10

  • Stock: DDMP REIT Inc. (DDMPR)

  • Trade Date: January 24, 2025

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Signal: Green Bar

  • Entry Price: 1.06

  • Shares Bought: 3,000

  • Position Size: 50% of DDMPR trading shares


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

1. Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • The stock had been in a sideways accumulation phase but recently showed signs of attempting to hold support at 1.05.

  • The 20-day MA (1.06) acted as initial support, with the price bouncing off it.

  • The 200-day MA (1.08) is positioned overhead as resistance.

  • Verdict: The market structure suggests an attempt at recovery, but overall momentum remains weak.

2. Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones - Score: 8/10

  • The stock was trading within retracement zones:

    • 50% retracement (1.06) was used as the buy entry level.

    • 25% retracement (1.08) is the first target resistance.

    • 100% retracement (1.03) is the stop-loss level.

  • The entry at 1.06 was taken at the midpoint of the pullback structure.

  • Verdict: Good positioning, but requires momentum confirmation.

3. Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • A green bar formed near the support zone, suggesting an early buying signal.

  • Volume remains low, which raises concerns about buyer conviction.

  • Verdict: The entry is speculative; stronger follow-through is required.

4. Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies - Score: 6/10

  • The entry was made in anticipation of a rebound, aligning with key retracement levels.

  • A stronger confirmation would have been a higher volume green power bar.

  • Verdict: Entry is reasonable but lacks strong supporting signals.

5. Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 8/10

  • Stop-loss level: Below 1.03 (aligned with 100% retracement and historical support).

  • A break below this would indicate trend failure and further downside.

  • Verdict: The stop-loss is well-placed for risk control.

6. Color Change as Secondary Confirmation - Score: 6/10

  • The green bar is the first sign of a reversal, but it needs follow-through.

  • If the price closes below 1.05, the trade becomes high risk.

  • Verdict: Confirmation is pending.

7. Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First profit target: 1.08 - 1.10 (near the 200-MA resistance).

  • Next target: 1.09 (previous retracement high).

  • Verdict: Logical target placement, but upside potential is limited.

8. Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • If price dips to 1.05 and rebounds, a re-entry could be considered.

  • Verdict: Further confirmation needed before adding to position.

9. Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Position size at 50% allows room for adjustments.

  • Verdict: Conservative risk management aligns with strategy.

10. Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • If price falls below 1.03, a sell signal would emerge.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss must be honored strictly.


Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.2/10

Pros: 

✅ Entry is at a key retracement level.

Green bar confirmation suggests early bullish interest.

Good risk management with a 50% position size.

✅ Logical profit-taking zones set at 1.08-1.10.

Cons: 

Volume is low, suggesting weak buyer conviction.

Major resistance at the 200-MA (1.08-1.09).

❌ A stronger entry signal would have been a green power bar with volume.

Next Steps:

  • Monitor for bullish continuation above 1.08.

  • Move stop-loss to breakeven (1.06) if price reaches 1.08.

  • Exit if price closes below 1.05.


Conclusion

This second trade in our 20-test trade series follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and while the entry was well-positioned, it lacks strong confirmation. The trade will be monitored for momentum continuation, and risk will be managed accordingly. Future trades will focus on higher volume confirmation before entry.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Evaluation of Trade No. 1 – RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

Contents:

  • Trade No. 1 Details
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Trade Assessment
  • Next Steps

As part of our planned 20 test trades using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we executed our first trade on January 23, 2025, with RL Commercial REIT (RCR). Below is a detailed evaluation of the trade, analyzing our entry decision, market conditions, and trade management.

Technical analysis chart of RCR with retracement levels, moving averages, and buy entry.

RCR Daily Chart Showing Key Retracement Levels and Trade Entry.


Trade No. 1 Details

  • Trade No.: 1/20

  • Stock: RL Commercial REIT (RCR)

  • Trade Date: January 24, 2025

  • Action: Buy

  • Entry Type: Anticipatory Entry

  • Signal: Bullish Pin Bar

  • Entry Price: 6.00

  • Shares Bought: 200

  • Position Size: Remaining 20% of RCR trading shares balance, completing the RCR portfolio allocation


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

1. Market State & Trend Context - Score: 7/10

  • The stock had been in a downtrend from November to December 2024 but recently showed signs of reversal.

  • A double-bottom pattern had formed, suggesting a potential bullish shift.

  • Moving Averages:

    • The 200-day MA (5.61) remains below the price, indicating long-term weakness.

    • The 20-day MA (5.89) was tested as support, hinting at an upward resumption.

  • Verdict: Mixed signals, but recent price action suggests bullish potential.

2. Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones - Score: 8/10

  • The stock was trading within retracement zones from previous highs:

    • 30% retracement (5.89) held as support.

    • 41% retracement (5.94) was tested before entry.

    • 66% retracement (6.09) remains a major resistance.

  • The entry at 6.00 was within the acceptable retracement range.

  • Verdict: Good entry zone, but strong resistance ahead.

3. Power Bars & Retracement Strength - Score: 6/10

  • A bullish pin bar formed at the 20-MA, aligning with a retracement level.

  • No strong green power bars yet, but higher lows suggest accumulation.

  • Verdict: Entry is based on anticipation; confirmation is required.

4. Entry with Confirmation from Both Strategies - Score: 6/10

  • The entry was taken in anticipation of a breakout due to the pin bar signal.

  • Stronger confirmation would have been a break above 6.05 with volume.

  • Verdict: Slightly aggressive entry, but acceptable within strategy.

5. Tactical Stop-Loss Adjustments - Score: 8/10

  • Stop-loss level: Below 5.89 (under the 30% retracement and 20-MA support).

  • A break below this would indicate a failed trend reversal.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss is well-placed for risk control.

6. Color Change as Secondary Confirmation - Score: 6/10

  • The pin bar suggests a reversal attempt, but a green power bar is needed for confirmation.

  • If the price closes below 5.89, the trade becomes high risk.

  • Verdict: Confirmation is still pending.

7. Profit-Taking Aligned with Retracement Targets - Score: 8/10

  • First profit target: 6.09 - 6.15 (retracement resistance zone).

  • Next target: 6.29 (previous 100% retracement level).

  • Verdict: Targets are logical within the resistance structure.

8. Re-Entry at Secondary Retracement Pullbacks - Score: 7/10

  • If price dips to 5.89-5.94 and rebounds, re-entry could be considered.

  • Verdict: Further confirmation needed before adding to position.

9. Tactical Position Management - Score: 8/10

  • Position size at 20% keeps risk controlled while testing the setup.

  • Verdict: Conservative position sizing aligns with risk management.

10. Counter-Trend Trades Only When Retracement Fails - Score: 7/10

  • If price falls below 5.89, a sell signal would emerge.

  • Verdict: Stop-loss should be honored strictly.


Final Trade Assessment

Trade Rating: 7.2/10

Pros: 

✅ Entry is at a key retracement level.

Pin bar confirmation suggests bullish momentum.

Good risk management with a 20% position size.

✅ Logical profit-taking zones set at 6.09-6.15.

Cons: 

❌ No green power bar confirmation yet.

Major resistance overhead at 6.09-6.15.

❌ A safer entry would have been above 6.05 with volume confirmation.

Next Steps:

  • Monitor bullish continuation above 6.05.

  • Move stop-loss to breakeven (6.00) if price reaches 6.09.

  • Exit if price closes below 5.89.


Conclusion

This first trade in our 20-test trade series follows the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, and while the entry was slightly aggressive, it aligns with retracement principles. The trade will be monitored for confirmation of bullish momentum, and risk will be managed accordingly. Future trades will focus on stronger confirmation signals before entry.



Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Thursday, January 23, 2025

Live Testing the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy – Day 4, Week 4: Evaluating URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR for Potential Trades

Contents:

  • Overview: Entering Day 4 of Week 4 in Phase 2 of Our Live Testing
  • Stock Evaluations Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy
  • Final Thoughts – Are We Entering Our First Trade Today?


Overview: Entering Day 4 of Week 4 in Phase 2 of Our Live Testing

As we progress into Day 4 of Week 4 in Phase 2 of live testing our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we are still on the hunt for our first trade under this phase. The objective remains the same—identifying high-probability trade setups while ensuring strict adherence to risk management.

Despite multiple evaluations over the past weeks, no setup has met our strict entry criteria for initiating a position. This disciplined approach ensures that we do not force trades in unfavorable market conditions. Today, we are revisiting five stocks—URC, MONDE, ALLHC, DDMPR, and RCR—to evaluate their potential trade setups based on our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Stock chart of RCR from January 22, 2025, with key technical indicators and trading signals.

January 22, 2025, closing chart of DDMPR analyzed under the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.


Are We Any Closer to Finding Our First Trade?

Today’s post will break down:
✅ Key technical insights from each stock’s January 22, 2025 closing chart.
✅ Buy and sell signals we are looking for today (January 23, 2025).
✅ Recommended stop-loss levels and profit-taking zones.
✅ Our overall game plan moving forward.

The analysis will determine if any of these stocks present a solid trade opportunity or if we continue to wait for better setups.


Stock Evaluations Using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy

1. URC (Universal Robina Corporation) – Bearish Continuation with No Clear Reversal Yet

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

URC remains in a strong downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lower lows.

  • The 200-day moving average (97.59) is trending downward, confirming long-term bearish sentiment.
  • The 20-day moving average (74.90) is also declining, acting as dynamic resistance.
  • URC closed at 64.50, significantly below both moving averages, reinforcing continued weakness.

Position, Location & Key Retracement Zones (Step 2)

  • Major resistance is at 75.00, near the 20-MA rejection zone.
  • Immediate support at 64.00 - 60.00 remains key for potential stabilization.
  • A break below 64.00 could open the door for further downside toward 58.00 - 60.00.

Power Bars & Retracement Strength (Step 3)

  • Recent red power bars with increasing volume suggest strong selling pressure.
  • No green power bars have emerged, meaning buyers are not stepping in aggressively yet.

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

  • Buy Signal: A green power bar closing above 66.00 with volume could indicate a potential short-term reversal.
  • Sell Signal: A break below 64.00 would confirm continued bearish momentum.

Risk Management

  • Stop-Loss Level: 60.00, ensuring risk control if the decline continues.
  • Partial Profit-Taking Level: 70.00 - 72.00, where resistance may emerge.

👉 Verdict: No trade setup yet. We need confirmation of a reversal before considering a long trade.


2. MONDE (Monde Nissin Corporation) – Signs of Stabilization, but Not Ready for a Long Entry

Market State & Trend Context (Step 1)

MONDE is still in a downtrend, though it is showing early signs of stabilization above 7.00.

  • 20-MA (7.72) is a key resistance level to break before a bullish move can be confirmed.
  • 7.00 is acting as strong support, with buyers attempting to defend this level.

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

  • Buy Signal: A break above 7.50 with volume, indicating bullish momentum toward 7.72 - 8.00.
  • Sell Signal: A failure to break 7.50, or a red power bar near this level, could lead to a retest of 7.00 - 6.80.

Risk Management

  • Stop-Loss Level: 6.90, protecting against downside risks.
  • Partial Profit-Taking Level: 7.80 - 8.00, aligning with resistance.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. We need a strong breakout above 7.50.


3. ALLHC (AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp.) – Holding at Support, but Resistance is Strong

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

  • Buy Signal: A breakout above 1.75 with volume, confirming a potential reversal.
  • Sell Signal: A failure to break 1.70, signaling continued weakness.

Risk Management

  • Stop-Loss Level: 1.60, limiting downside risk.
  • Partial Profit-Taking Level: 1.80 - 1.85, where resistance may emerge.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. We need to see confirmation of a breakout.


4. DDMPR (DDMP REIT Inc.) – Attempting to Hold Support, but Lacks Strength

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

  • Buy Signal: A bounce off 1.05 with a strong green power bar, indicating buyers stepping in.
  • Sell Signal: A break below 1.05, signaling further downside risk.

Risk Management

  • Stop-Loss Level: 1.03, keeping losses minimal.
  • Partial Profit-Taking Level: 1.08 - 1.10, aligning with 200-MA resistance.

👉 Verdict: No trade yet. Needs confirmation of support holding.


5. RCR (RL Commercial REIT Inc.) – Consolidating Near Breakout Levels

Buy and Sell Signals We Are Looking for Today (January 23, 2025)

  • Buy Signal: A break above 6.00 with volume, confirming a bullish breakout.
  • Sell Signal: A failure to hold above 5.88, leading to a potential pullback.

Risk Management

  • Stop-Loss Level: 5.85, protecting against a breakdown.
  • Partial Profit-Taking Level: 6.10 - 6.20, where sellers may emerge.

👉 Verdict: Closest to a trade setup, but needs confirmation of breakout.


Final Thoughts – Are We Entering Our First Trade Today?

Based on today’s evaluation, RCR is the closest stock to providing a potential buy setup, but we need to see a breakout above 6.00 with strong volume before entering.

For URC, MONDE, ALLHC, and DDMPR, none of them currently offer a strong enough setup to justify a trade. We remain on standby, ensuring we only take high-probability trades that align with our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy.

Key Takeaways for January 23, 2025

Stay patient – No forced trades!

Monitor RCR closely for a potential breakout.

Wait for green power bars and strong volume before entering trades.

Stick to our stop-loss and profit-taking strategy.

🚀 The goal remains the same: Secure our first trade under Phase 2 – but only when conditions align!


Related Posts


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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