Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Stock Price Review: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) Daily and Monthly Charts as of February 17, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review
  • Final Stock Recommendation
  • Next Steps

Introduction

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC) is a key logistics and real estate player in the Philippine market. This stock price review analyzes the daily and monthly charts as of February 17, 2025, using the Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy 3.0.

TRADE DETAILS: Date: February 17, 2025
Stock: AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. (ALLHC)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Daily
Closing Price: PHP 1.58
High: PHP 1.63
Low: PHP 1.57
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): PHP 1.62
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): PHP 1.86

Pullback Under Consideration:
Start of Power Move Date: February 03, 2025
Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): PHP 1.64
End of Power Move Date: February 04, 2025
End of Power Move (0% Pullback): PHP 1.57
Power move trend: Bearish
Power Move Sweet Spot: PHP 1.61 - 1.62
Current Pullback Level: 14%

Volume Analysis:
Closing Volume on February 17, 2025: 720K shares
65-day volume average: 860K shares
30-day volume average: 550K shares
Target Breakout Volume: 1.56M shares

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. stock daily chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

AyalaLand Logistics Holdings Corp. stock monthly chart with technical indicators as of February 17, 2025

ALLHC Daily and Monthly Stock Charts as of February 17, 2025


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Bearish downtrend with price below the 200-day MA of PHP 1.86. The 20-MA at PHP 1.62 reflects short-term bearish momentum.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Price below both MAs, signaling caution. No ideal entry zone reached.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume
No power bars or breakout signals; volume below target.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 4: Entry Confirmation
No bullish signals or break above PHP 1.61.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 5: Stop-Loss & Risk Management
Stop-loss below PHP 1.50.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 6: Color Change Signals
No bullish color change.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies
Target PHP 1.75 and PHP 2.00 on reversal.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones
Watch PHP 1.50 for re-entry.
➡ Verdict: Wait

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
No active positions.
➡ Verdict: Hold

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading
No gap-downs or drops to justify counter-trend trades.
➡ Verdict: Avoid

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD
✅ Recommendation: Hold until bullish confirmation above PHP 1.61-1.62.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below PHP 1.50.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Target PHP 1.75-2.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Small position on bullish signals.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Wait for breakout above PHP 1.61-1.62.
🔹 Long-term investors → Monitor PHP 1.50 for entry.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold and avoid adding positions.
🚨 Final Thought: Exercise caution; wait for confirmed bullish reversal. 🚨


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Thursday, February 13, 2025

Tactical Trade Review: Manila Electric Company (MER) Exit at ₱485.00 and ₱492.60 on February 11-12, 2025 – Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation

Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Key Learnings from the Stock Price Review
  • Tactical Trade Execution
  • Final Reflections: What This Trade Taught Us

Introduction

Stock trading is a continuous learning process, and our latest execution on Manila Electric Company (MER) – Trade No. 3/20 and 4/20 reflects key insights gained from our Stock Price Review dated February 11, 2025. By applying our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy, we assessed whether MER was positioned for a buy, sell, or hold decision before executing our tactical trades at ₱485.00 on February 11, 2025, and ₱492.60 on February 12, 2025. This post explores how our Stock Price Review findings influenced our trade decision, ensuring a data-driven and disciplined execution.

Daily chart of Manila Electric Co. (MER) as of February 12, 2025, showing price levels, volume analysis, and key moving averages.

Manila Electric Company (MER) Trade Execution – Learning from Stock Price Review for Tactical Decisions

Key Learnings from the Stock Price Review: MER Trade No. 3/20


1. Market State & Trend Context Confirmed a Bullish Structure

Our Stock Price Review established that the 20-MA (₱481.38) was above the 200-MA (₱428.53), reinforcing the overall uptrend structure. The current price was trading above both moving averages, maintaining a bullish context.

  • Impact on our trade: This supported holding MER, but we closely monitored signs of resistance and weakening momentum.

2. Price Position & Retracement Zones Were a Key Consideration

MER had retraced from its high of ₱503.50 down to ₱448.00, marking a 72% pullback. The price range of ₱478.53 - ₱489.63 was identified as the Power Move Sweet Spot, presenting an ideal buying zone.

  • Impact on our trade: We remained patient within this range but executed a sell at ₱485.00 as volume failed to strengthen, signaling a potential risk.

3. Volume Analysis Indicated Weak Momentum

Volume was considerably weak at 103.66K compared to the 65-day volume average of 228.03K. A target breakout volume of 410K was needed for strong confirmation.

  • Impact on our trade: The failure to meet breakout volume led us to exit at ₱485.00 to manage downside risk while considering potential re-entry points.

4. Tactical Position Adjustments Influenced Risk Management

Our position size was adjusted according to market conditions. Initially, we held 50% allocation, ensuring controlled risk exposure within our planned trade execution levels.

  • Impact on our trade: We exited 50% of our position on February 11 at ₱485.00 to mitigate further risk.

5. Candlestick Signals or Lack Thereof Justified the Trade

The stock lacked strong bullish confirmation, with no significant power bars or color change signals appearing on the daily chart.

  • Impact on our trade: The absence of a decisive breakout candle reinforced our decision to lock in gains and secure our capital for potential re-entry at lower levels.

Tactical Trade Execution: SELL at ₱485.00

Following the insights from our Stock Price Review, we executed a sell action aligned with our technical assessment and risk management strategy:

Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)

Trade No. 3/20
Date: February 11, 2025
Action: SELL
Number of Shares: 10
Price: ₱485.00
Net Gain/Loss Since Inception: -₱21.61
Total Shares Held After Trade: 10
Position Size: 50%

Key Learnings from the MER Stock Price Review: MER Trade No. 4/20


1. Market State & Trend Context Confirmed Uptrend

Our stock review established that MER was trading above both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages at ₱485.00, confirming a bullish structure. However, despite this, our Trade No. 4/20 was a SELL, which may seem counterintuitive. The key factor? Resistance at ₱490-₱500 remained a significant hurdle, and price struggled to break higher.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Instead of buying into the resistance, we decided to sell near the upper range of the power move sweet spot at ₱492.60, locking in profits rather than risking a potential pullback.

2. The Pullback Sweet Spot Was a Double-Edged Sword

The stock price had retraced 72% from its previous high of ₱503.50, reaching the ideal buy zone (₱478.53 - ₱489.63). This suggested that buyers could step in at these levels for a potential rebound.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • While this zone signaled a possible buy opportunity, the review also highlighted a lack of volume confirmation, meaning breakout potential was weak.
  • Given the uncertainty, we opted to exit our position at ₱492.60, taking advantage of the price recovery without committing to further upside risk.

3. Volume Analysis Indicated Weak Breakout Potential

One of the most critical findings from our Stock Price Review was that MER’s volume was significantly below breakout levels:

  • Closing volume: 103.66K, much lower than the target breakout volume of 410K.
  • 30-day & 65-day volume averages: 220.94K and 228.03K, meaning MER was trading at nearly half its normal volume.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • A successful breakout above ₱490.00 required strong volume, which was absent.
  • Selling at ₱492.60 allowed us to exit before potential low-volume price rejection, preventing unnecessary downside exposure.

4. Tactical Position Adjustments Confirmed the Need to Reduce Risk

Our review recommended a controlled position-sizing strategy, advising:

  • Buying only within the ₱478.53 - ₱485.00 range and adding only if MER broke ₱490.00 with volume.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Since volume failed to confirm a breakout, we avoided increasing our position and instead exited fully at ₱492.60, bringing our position size to 0%.

5. Lack of Strong Candlestick Signals Justified a Cautious Exit

Our Stock Price Review noted that:

  • No power bars or breakout signals were present.
  • No strong color change signals indicated a clear trend continuation.

How This Influenced Our Trade:

  • Without bullish confirmation, our best move was to secure profits and step aside rather than hope for an uncertain rally.

Tactical Trade Execution: SELL at ₱492.60

Trade Summary

  • Stock: Manila Electric Company (MER)
  • Trade No.: 4/20
  • Date: February 12, 2025
  • Action: SELL
  • Number of Shares: 10
  • Price: ₱492.60
  • Net Gain/Loss Since Inception: ₱122.37
  • Total Shares Held After Trade: 0
  • Position Size (% of Allocation): 0%

Final Reflections: What This Trade Taught Us

Our Trade No. 3/20 and 4/20 were direct responses to the lessons from our Stock Price Review: 

✅ We respected resistance and sold near key levels. 

✅ We prioritized volume confirmation and exited when it was weak. 

✅ We managed risk by locking in gains rather than chasing uncertain upside. 

✅ We avoided counter-trend trading, as no major reversal signals were present.

Going forward, we will continue monitoring volume conditions before considering a re-entry into MER.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Stock Price Review: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) Daily Chart as of February 12, 2025 – Buy or Sell Decision Using the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy

Contents:

  • Introduction

  • Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

  • Final Stock Recommendation

  • Next Steps

Introduction

Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE) has been one of the most actively traded stocks on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE), attracting both retail and institutional traders. Given the recent price movement and volume surge, it is crucial to assess whether MONDE presents a buying opportunity or if caution is warranted.

TRADE DETAILS

Date: February 12, 2025
Stock: Monde Nissin Corporation (MONDE)
Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
Timeframe: Daily
Closing Price: 8.00
High: 8.05
Low: 7.79
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): 7.22
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): 9.61

Pullback Under Consideration

Start of Power Move: January 2, 2025
Start of Power Move (100% Pullback): 8.60
End of Power Move: January 31, 2025
End of Power Move (0% Pullback): 6.65
Power Move Trend: Bearish
Power Move Sweet Spot: 7.72 - 8.11
Market Price To Date: 8.00
Pullback Level To Date: 69%

Volume Analysis (as of February 12, 2025)

Closing Volume: 17.76M
65-day volume average: 6.80M
30-day volume average: 9.00M
Target Breakout Volume (65-day x 1.8 volume average): 12.25M

This stock price review follows our Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy to determine whether MONDE is a Buy, Sell, or Hold opportunity.

MONDE Stock price chart from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) showing moving averages, volume analysis, and market trends for technical evaluation as of February 12, 2025.

MONDE Stock price chart displaying key technical indicators, including moving averages, volume trends, and price action patterns as of February 12, 2025.


Hybrid 10-Step Trading Strategy Review

Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context

  • MONDE is in a downtrend phase with a bearish power move recorded from January 2, 2025 (8.60) to January 31, 2025 (6.65).

  • The price is below the 200-day MA (9.61), indicating a bearish long-term trend.

  • The stock is trading above the 20-day MA (7.22), suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

  • Verdict: Wait (Needs confirmation of trend reversal)

Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones

  • The price is currently within the Power Move Sweet Spot (7.72 - 8.11).

  • At 69% pullback, it is near the upper retracement zone, which typically signals a resistance level.

  • Verdict: Hold/Wait (Confirm breakout above 8.11 for long positions)

Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation

  • Closing volume (17.76M) exceeds the breakout target volume (12.25M), signaling strong buyer interest.

  • Multiple green power bars indicate positive momentum.

  • Verdict: Buy (Breakout confirmation present)

Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals

  • The stock is attempting a breakout above the Power Move Sweet Spot (8.11).

  • A clean move above 8.11 with volume will confirm an entry signal.

  • Verdict: Buy if price clears 8.11 with strong volume

Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management

  • Stop-loss below 7.72 (lower end of the sweet spot) to minimize downside risk.

  • Verdict: Buy with stop-loss below 7.72

Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation

  • No major bearish reversal signals yet.

  • If price breaks 8.11, bullish confirmation strengthens.

  • Verdict: Buy if momentum sustains

Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits

  • Short-term target: 8.60 (previous resistance)

  • Mid-range target: 9.00 (psychological level)

  • Verdict: Buy with profit targets at 8.60 and 9.00

Step 8: Potential Re-Entry Zones

  • Pullback buy zone: 7.72 - 8.11

  • Verdict: Re-enter on pullbacks within sweet spot if volume holds

Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments

  • Core Position: Enter at 8.11 with 50% allocation.

  • Tactical Entry: Additional 10% position above 8.60 breakout.

  • Verdict: Gradual position scaling

Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations

  • Since the 200-MA is far above (9.61), MONDE is still in a long-term downtrend.

  • Counter-trend trades should only be considered if it breaks 9.00 with strong momentum.

  • Verdict: Caution on long-term positions

Final Stock Recommendation

Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (With Conditions)

✅ Recommendation: Buy at 8.11 if volume sustains and price confirms breakout.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below 7.72 to minimize downside risk.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Initial target 8.60, mid-range target 9.00.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Enter with 50% core position, scale up on strength.

Next Steps

🔹 Short-term traders → Watch for breakout confirmation above 8.11 before entering.
🔹 Long-term investors → Only enter if price clears 9.00 with strong volume.
🔹 Existing holders → Consider holding but set stop-loss below 7.72 for risk control.
🚨 Final Thought: The market remains in a bearish trend long-term, so caution is necessary. Wait for confirmation above 8.11 before executing a buy.


Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.


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