Mga kabayan, last week (August 15) nakita natin ang bagsak ng URC sa ₱81—malakas na pula at basag ang MA20 at MA50. Ang tanong noon: kakapit ba ang ₱80 support o tuloy-tuloy na ba ang laglag?
Ngayong August 22, medyo huminga ng konti. Nag-close sa ₱83.50 (+0.85%), eksaktong nakasampa sa 50-MA na ₱83.13. Hindi pa rin bullish, pero mukhang sinusubukan humawak. Patuloy ba itong tatayo, o baka relief lang bago muling bumigay? Suriin natin muli gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy.
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
Date: August 22, 2025
Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly (with 8, 20, 50, 200 MA overlays)
Closing Price: ₱83.50
High: ₱85.20
Low: ₱82.05
20-MA (Short-Term): ₱86.32
50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱83.13
200-MA (Long-Term): ₱111.60
📉 Bumaba pa rin sa MA20, pero umalalay ang 50-MA support. May konting “holding pattern” sa ₱83 area.
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
Nasa ilalim pa rin ng MA20, pero at least hindi bumigay ang ₱80. Testing phase.
➡ Verdict: Neutral WAIT | ✅ Score: 6/10
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Close ₱83.50 = eksaktong nasa ibabaw ng MA50. Delikado pa rin, pero at least hindi na-breach pababa.
➡ Verdict: Defensive HOLD | ✅ Score: 7/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Green candle, pero maliit lang at low volume. Relief bounce lang, walang conviction.
➡ Verdict: Weak HOLD | ✅ Score: 6/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation (Fundamental + Technical)
Wala pa ring bullish confirmation. Hindi ito re-entry signal.
➡ Verdict: WAIT | ✅ Score: 5/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy
₱80 remains the hard line. As long as hindi nababasag, hold.
➡ Verdict: Maintain SL | ✅ Score: 7/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals
May green candle ngayong linggo—possible early sign, pero kulang sa volume.
➡ Verdict: Watch cautiously | ✅ Score: 6/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
No profits yet, still underwater from ₱94 entry.
➡ Verdict: Not yet | ✅ Score: 5/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Pwede magdagdag kung ₱83 support holds next 1–2 weeks with stronger green volume. Otherwise, wait above ₱86.
➡ Verdict: Layer cautiously | ✅ Score: 7/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning
Good risk management—naka-1,000 shares lang tayo (~₱94K vs ₱150K allocation).
➡ Verdict: Proper | ✅ Score: 9/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Still halal, consumer staple—pero trend ang susundin, hindi label lang.
➡ Verdict: HOLD watchlist | ✅ Score: 8/10
📊 Total Score: 66 / 100 (improved from 63 and 65—pero tentative pa rin, wala pang clear reversal)
📝 Want to know how this score translates into action?
👉 Read our Decision Criteria Guide to see when to Buy, Wait, Hold, or Sell.
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Kung baga sa Batangas na dagat, nasa mababaw na tubig pa si URC—hindi nalunod, pero hindi rin makalangoy palabas. Hawak sa bato ng ₱83 support, hintayin kung aangat o aahon.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges: ₱83–₱84 (support re-test), add only kung may lakas.
📌 Stop-Loss Level: ₱80 (hard cut).
📌 Target Prices: ₱90–₱92 (relief), ₱100–₱102 (mid target), ₱110–₱112 (MA200 ceiling).
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add small only if bounce confirms. Trim agad at first resistance.
📌 Position Strategy: Stay light, wag muna full load.
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱150,000 Allocation)
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Layer 1 – Support Hold Test: ₱83–₱84 | 200 shares = ₱16,600 (~11%)
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Layer 2 – Deep Support Buy: ₱80–₱81 | 200 shares = ₱16,200 (~11%)
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Layer 3 – Recovery Entry: ₱86–₱87 | 300 shares = ₱26,100 (~17%)
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Layer 4 – Trend Reclaim Zone: ₱90–₱92 | 300 shares = ₱27,600 (~18%)
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Layer 5 – Full Conviction Add: ₱95–₱98 | 400 shares = ₱38,400 (~25%)
✅ Max Deployment: ~80% of ₱150K
💸 Cash Buffer: ~20%
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
🎯 Target 1 – ₱90–₱92: Exit 25% (relief trim)
🎯 Target 2 – ₱100–₱102: Exit 35% (mid resistance)
🎯 Target 3 – ₱110–₱112: Exit 40% (long-term ceiling near MA200)
🔴 Hard Stop: Below ₱80
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: HOLD DEFENSIVE
✅ Recommendation: HOLD current 1,000 shares. No aggressive adding until ₱83 support proves strong or price reclaims ₱86–₱87.
✅ Risk Management: Keep hard stop below ₱80.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Trim at ₱90–₱92, partial at ₱100–₱102, review near ₱110–₱112.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Stay small, add gradually only after trend confirms.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
Mga kabayan, trading URC ngayon ay parang pagtimpla ng kapeng barako—wag madaliin, baka mapait. Ang sikreto: hintayin ang tamang buwelo at magdagdag lang kapag may malinaw na reversal. Disiplina muna bago kita.
Trade Simulation Update: No Trade Today
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Portfolio: Halal Core Growth Portfolio
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Stock Allocation: ₱150,000
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Active Position: 1,000 shares URC @ ₱94 = ₱94,000
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Quick Hatol: HOLD defensive, bantay sa ₱83–₱80.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment
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Isang tanong ang pumasok sa isip ko habang nakatingin sa chart—“Anong gagawin ko kung may mag-abot sa akin ng isang milyong piso, cash, at walang hinihinging kapalit?”
Walang kondisyon. Walang tanong. Walang habol.
Isang milyong pisong biglaang dumating.
Hindi galing sa sugal. Hindi hiram.
Malinis. Legal. Bigay.
Rizq—kung tutuusin.
Pero ang tanong ay hindi lang “anong bibilhin ko?”
O “saan ko i-invest?”
Kundi—“Kaya ko bang panindigan ang 10-Step Strategy ko, kung ganito kalaki ang hawak ko?”
Capital Allocation: ₱400,000
Objective: This portfolio seeks long-term growth from fundamentally strong, ethically aligned, and ideally Shariah-compliant businesses.
Hindi lang basta technical setup ang basehan—pinag-isipan din kung saan nanggagaling ang kita, at kung ito ba ay halal ang pinagmulan.
Objective: To generate passive income from a selection of halal-screened REITs and dividend-paying companies that pass ethical and Shariah filters.
Ito ang bahagi ng portfolio na tumatanggap ng biyaya habang natutulog ka, pero hindi mula sa haram.
Objective: To capture capital appreciation from undervalued or temporarily beaten-down companies showing signs of recovery—without crossing the ethical line.
Not every good trade is clean, and not every clean trade is good. Kaya dito sinusubok ang balance ng puso at diskarte.
Objective: To execute short- to mid-term tactical trades using ₱10,000 per board lot based on the Hybrid 10-Step Strategy, with real money and real-time conviction—under the mindset of a Board Lot Warrior.
Hindi ito simulation. Hindi ito paper trade. Ito ang totoong laban, gamit ang disiplina at dasal.
Objective: To maintain spiritual discipline and financial humility by leaving room—intentionally—for:
- 📉 Market patience
- 🤲 Giving opportunities
- ⚠️ Emergency trades
- 🛑 Delayed entry signals
- 💔 Life’s unplanned tests
This fund is not for stock picks.
This is for the moments when you choose not to act, because the best decision is sometimes to wait, or give.
Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado. Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus VariantOptimized for Accumulation, Patience, and Portfolio Growth
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