TACTICAL ROTATION FUND | Trading Simulation Capital: ₱150,000 | Subok Series
Micro Stock Trader | Ethical and Halal-Conscious Investing in the PSE
Panimula: Paghinga Pagkatapos ng Buwelo
Matagal na tayong walang review kay ATI—mahigit 6 na buwan na. Noon, hindi pa umaarangkada ang trend. Ngayon, ibang usapan na—mula sa mahaba-habang tahimik na sideways, biglang nagpasabog ng malakas na rally hanggang halos ₱28.
Ngayong nakapahinga na sandali ang presyo, tanong natin: sapat ba itong hinga para magpatuloy ang trend, o baka hanggang dito na lang muna? Worth pa bang pumasok ngayon o maghintay ng bagong buwelo?
- Tactical Rotation Fund (Board Lot Warrior Account) — Subok ng Puso Series #6
5 Paghahati ng Biglaang Rizq: May Layunin ang Bawat Piso — Subok ng Puso Series #2
₱1,000,000 Walang Kapalit: Subok ng Puso, Hindi Lang ng Strategy
Nilalaman
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
1️⃣ Weekly Chart Snapshot
-
Date: August 15, 2025
-
Stock: Asian Terminals Inc. (ATI)
-
Exchange: PSE
-
Timeframes: Weekly (primary), Daily (supporting)
-
Closing Price: ₱27.30
-
High: ₱27.35
-
Low: ₱26.60
-
20-MA (Short-Term): ₱23.57
-
50-MA (Mid-Term): ₱20.22
-
200-MA (Long-Term): ₱16.38
-
8-MA (Momentum): ₱26.29
2️⃣ Hybrid 10-Step Strategy Evaluation
Step 1: Market State & Trend Context
ATI clearly nasa uptrend—price well above 200MA at malakas ang recent climb.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 2: Price Position & Value Zones
Presyo nasa itaas ng lahat ng MA (8, 20, 50, 200). Malapit sa 8MA, ibig sabihin healthy ang pahinga.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 9/10
Step 3: Power Bars, Price & Volume
Nakakita ng malalaking green bars noong Mayo-Hulyo, pero medyo humina volume nitong Agosto. Cooling-off phase.
➡ Verdict: HOLD
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
No breakout signal this week, pero ang 8MA ay nagho-hold bilang short-term support. Entry okay kung mag-hold ₱26–27.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation, Not Noise
Logical stop below ₱25 (swing low at MA20 area).
➡ Verdict: BUY with strict stop
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Green dominance intact, wala pang reversal candle.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
May resistance sa ₱29–30. Dito magandang mag-trim kung naabot.
➡ Verdict: HOLD profits
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Re-entry valid sa ₱25–26 zone kung bumaba pa.
➡ Verdict: WAIT
✅ Score: 7/10
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Core: 50% near ₱26. Tactical: 10% add kung breakout ₱29+.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 8/10
Step 10: Ethical & Counter-Trend Considerations
Walang issue sa Shariah compliance list. Counter-trend entry unnecessary for now.
➡ Verdict: BUY
✅ Score: 9/10
🧮 Total Score: 80/100
Solid uptrend pero medyo cooling-off. Compared sa mga quiet stocks, ATI ay nasa mid-buoyancy phase.
3️⃣ Hatol ng Batangueñong Trader
Parang bangkang dagat na galing Batangas Pier—umandar na ng malakas, ngayon nasa gitna ng laot, bahagyang nagpapahinga bago muling sumagwan. ATI ay buo pa ang lakas, pero wag natin kalimutan ang alon—ready dapat kung biglang bumagsak sa ilalim ng ₱25.
4️⃣ Next Steps (Tactical Plan)
📌 Entry Price Ranges: ₱26.00–₱27.00 (core test buy zone)
📌 Stop-Loss Level: Below ₱25.00 (structure violation)
📌 Target Prices: ₱29.00, ₱30.00, ₱32.00
📌 Add/Trim Plan: Add 10% position on breakout above ₱29.00 with volume
📌 Position Strategy: Core hold, tactical adds only
5️⃣ Updated Layered Accumulation Plan (₱50,000 Allocation)
-
Layer 1: ₱27.00 – 100 shares (₱2,700) | Tactical test buy
-
Layer 2: ₱26.00 – 200 shares (₱5,200) | Strong support zone add
-
Layer 3: ₱25.00 – 300 shares (₱7,500) | Deep pullback buffer
-
Layer 4: ₱29.50 – 200 shares (₱5,900) | Breakout add
Total Committed: ₱21,300 (42% of capital)
Remaining Buffer: ₱28,700 (58%)
6️⃣ Updated Phased Exit Plan
-
Exit 1: ₱29.00 – 100 shares | First trim near resistance
-
Exit 2: ₱30.00 – 200 shares | Lock 20% gains
-
Exit 3: ₱32.00 – 200 shares | Major cycle take-profit
-
Exit 4: Hard Stop below ₱25.00 | Full exit if violated
7️⃣ Final Trade Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: BUY (with caution)
✅ Recommendation: Accumulate small near ₱26–27 support zone. Add only on confirmed breakout > ₱29.
✅ Risk Management: Hard stop if breakdown below ₱25.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Gradual exits ₱29–32.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small, scale only if momentum confirms.
8️⃣ Closing Reflection
ATI proves na minsan, tahimik lang ang stock bago sumabog ang rally. Ang hamon ngayon ay hindi habulin ang taas, kundi magtiyaga sa tamang zone ng pasok. Sa trading, hindi laging bilis ng sakay kundi disiplina ng hintay.
📌 Trade Simulation Update
Portfolio: Tactical Rotation Fund
Allocation: ₱50,000
Active Position: None yet (waiting for entry)
Quick Hatol: Hindi pa huli ang lahat—hintayin ang ₱26–27 entry o ₱29 breakout.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado. Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
No comments:
Post a Comment