Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader | URC Stock Price Review
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Phased Exit Plan
- Final Stock Recommendation
I. Panimula
Ang Universal Robina Corporation (URC) ay isa sa mga top consumer staples sa PSE, kilala sa mga produkto tulad ng C2, Great Taste, at Piattos. Isa itong defensive stock na madalas binabantayan ng mga ethical investors lalo na kung naghahanap ng solid blue-chip plays sa long-term.
TRADE DETAILS:
📅 Date: July 15, 2025
📈 Stock: Universal Robina Corporation (URC)
🏛️ Exchange: Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)
🕰️ Timeframe: Weekly
💰 Closing Price: ₱97.30
📌 High: ₱99.40
📌 Low: ₱96.40
📉 20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱82.51
📉 50-MA (Mid-Term Trend): ₱83.80
📉 200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱112.78
Ang pagsusuri ay base sa Hybrid 10-Step Strategy 5.0 – Long-Term Focus Variant na ginagamit dito sa Micro Stock Trader. Tignan natin kung puwede na bang sumabak o antay-antay pa.
II. Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
URC ay kasalukuyang nasa uptrend recovery phase. May higher lows and higher highs since March 2025. Pero long-term ay bearish pa rin dahil nasa ilalim pa ng 200-MA.
➡ Verdict: HOLD / WATCHLIST – Healthy uptrend pero hindi pa long-term reversal.
Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
Presyo ay nasa itaas ng 20-MA at 50-MA — bullish sign sa short-to-mid term. Malayo pa sa 200-MA. Nasa mid-recovery zone.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for Better Entry o Accumulate on Retracement.
Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
Sunud-sunod ang green candles, may magandang momentum. Pero wala pa tayong strong breakout with high volume.
➡ Verdict: HOLD – Hintay ng mas malakas na confirmation.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
Kung mag-hold ang ₱90–₱92 zone at may price rejection sa baba, magandang pasok yun for tactical long.
➡ Verdict: ACCUMULATE on Dip (₱90–₱92) or BUY on Breakout (>₱100).
Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation, Not Noise
Set stop-loss below ₱82, kung saan nandoon ang swing low at malapit sa 20-MA.
➡ Verdict: Stop-Loss = ₱82.00
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Wala pang bearish reversal candle. Tuloy ang bullish momentum.
➡ Verdict: HOLD – Tuloy ang short-term trend.
Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
Mga dating resistance sa ₱105, ₱110, at ₱115 ay magandang target for partial exits.
➡ Verdict: PLAN partial exits sa key zones.
Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
Kapag bumalik sa ₱88–₱90 range pero nag-hold, magandang re-entry setup.
➡ Verdict: RE-ENTER on Healthy Pullbacks.
Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Sa ₱10,000 capital, puwede na ang tactical at core entries — either staged entry on dips o full entry on breakout.
➡ Verdict: Use tactical entry sa retracement, add core on confirmation.
Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
Wala pa tayong matatawag na panic drop o gap-down below 200-MA na puwedeng i-trade as counter-trend.
➡ Verdict: Not applicable sa ngayon.
III. Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba o Dadaan Lang?
✅ Recommendation: ACCUMULATE ON DIP around ₱90–₱92 zone.
🚫 Avoid chasing above ₱100 unless may confirmed breakout with volume.
📊 Shariah-compliant stock – good for ethical investing accounts.
IV. Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
🔹 Kung Tumama (Breaks above ₱100 with volume):
-
Add core position
-
Set target exits: ₱105, ₱110, ₱115
🔹 Kung Sumablay (Breakdown below ₱82):
-
Cut loss agad
-
Re-evaluate sa lower support (₱75 area)
V. Layered Accumulation Plan (₱10,000 Capital | 1 Board Lot = 100 Shares)
Layer 1 – Tactical Entry
📌 100 shares @ ₱92 = ₱9,200
🎯 Entry zone: Retracement sa confluence ng 20-MA at 50-MA
🛑 Stop-loss: ₱82
🔁 Buffer: ₱800 for re-entry o breakout add
Layer 2 – Core Entry (if may breakout)
📌 100 shares @ ₱100 = ₱10,000
🎯 Entry only on confirmed breakout with volume above ₱100
🛑 Stop-loss: ₱94 or ₱92 depending on candle structure
Layer 3 – Add on Strong Dip
📌 Add another 100 shares @ ₱88 if bumaba pero nag-hold
➡ Optional depende sa price behavior at volatility
VI. Phased Exit Plan
-
Partial Exit 1: ₱105 → Take 50%
-
Partial Exit 2: ₱110 → Take 30%
-
Final Exit: ₱115+ → Take remaining 20%
➡ Use trailing stop kung umabot beyond ₱115 with momentum.
VII. Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD / ACCUMULATE on DIP
✅ Recommendation: Accumulate at ₱90–₱92 support zone
✅ Risk Management: Set hard stop-loss below ₱82
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Gradual exits sa ₱105–₱115
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with tactical entry, scale on breakout confirmation
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
Mainam Basahin: Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
Isang koleksyon ng edukasyonal, mindset-based, at strategic posts para sa retail traders na may disiplina sa plano at malasakit sa galaw ng merkado.
Para sa maliit ang puhunan, pero malawak ang pag-iisip — at paninindigang Batangueño.
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