Micro Stock Trader | Board Lot Warrior Series – ARA Update | Capital: ₱5,000 | 1 board lot = 1,000 shares
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
- Layered Accumulation Plan
- Phased Exit Plan
I. Panimula
Ara Properties, Inc. (ARA) ay muling bumida sa ating radar ngayong July 15, 2025 update, kasunod ng naunang pagsusuri noong June 30, 2025, kung saan nagbigay tayo ng "HOLD/WAIT" verdict at tinukoy ang ₱0.55 bilang breakout trigger level. Sa bagong weekly chart na ito, makikita ang isang green candle na may breakout wick sa ₱0.56, sinabayan ng spike sa volume na 1.816M — isang senyales ng renewed buying interest.
TRADE DETAILS:
Date: July 15, 2025
Stock: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA)
Exchange: PSE
Timeframes: Weekly Chart
Closing Price: ₱0.54
High: ₱0.56
Low: ₱0.52
20-MA (Short-Term Trend): ₱0.55
50-MA (Mid-Term Trend): ₱0.56
8-MA (Near-Term): ₱0.51
200-MA (Long-Term Trend): ₱0.94
Tara, silipin natin kung pasok na ba ang ARA sa criteria ng isang tunay na Board Lot Warrior Entry gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy – Long-Term Focus Variant.
II. Stock Price Review Gamit ang Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
✅ Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
ARA is still trading way below its 200-MA (₱0.94), confirming a long-term bearish state. Pero ang presyo ngayon ay nakalapit na sa 20 at 50-MA, indicating possible basing or bottoming activity.
➡ Verdict: Wait (needs breakout confirmation)
✅ Step 2: Price Position & Long-Term Value Zones
📍Price is near the 20-MA (₱0.55) and 50-MA (₱0.56), indicating a mid-range setup. Nasa loob pa rin tayo ng potential breakout zone at mukhang nagbo-bottom pa.
➡ Verdict: HOLD/WAIT (but alert for breakout above ₱0.56)
✅ Step 3: Power Bars, Price Behavior & Volume Shift
May green candle tayo this week with decent wick sa taas. May volume spike din to support the move. Hindi pa confirmed breakout pero may attempt.
➡ Verdict: BUY on Controlled Pullback (₱0.51–₱0.52 zone)
✅ Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Fundamentals & Technical Triggers
No confirmed breakout yet sa ₱0.56 level. Pero kung bumalik ang presyo sa ₱0.51–₱0.52 with low volume, pwedeng tactical test entry for bottom reversal.
➡ Verdict: Test Buy sa ₱0.52 (Layer 1)
✅ Step 5: Stop-Loss Policy Based on Thesis Violation
Initial stop-loss natin ay sa ilalim ng swing low support band – below ₱0.48. Kapag nabasag ito, invalidated ang thesis.
➡ Verdict: SL below ₱0.48
✅ Step 6: Color Change Signals for Trend Validation
Walang solid confirmation candle pa, pero napansin ang pagtatangkang makaalis sa ilalim ng consolidation. Kailangan ng follow-through candle next week.
➡ Verdict: WAIT for follow-through
✅ Step 7: Profit-Taking via Valuation and Growth Cycles
First short-term target: ₱0.60–₱0.63 (gap fill)
Next target: ₱0.68
Max medium-term target: ₱0.70
➡ Verdict: Prepare to trim gradually if price reaches ₱0.63+
✅ Step 8: Re-Entry Plans After Market Dips
If nabasag ang ₱0.56 then bumalik sa ₱0.52 area, maganda itong re-entry zone.
➡ Verdict: Yes, re-entry allowed at ₱0.52–₱0.53 after breakout
✅ Step 9: Position Size Planning for Long-Term Portfolios
Core Position: Start with 1 board lot (₱510–₱520 range)
Tactical Position: 1 board lot din kung may second dip
➡ Verdict: Use small tactical entry (1–2 board lots)
✅ Step 10: Ethical and Counter-Trend Opportunity Considerations
Wala tayong 2 gap-downs or >5% breakdown below 200-MA recently. Pero dahil speculative at bottom-fishing ang setup, apply tighter risk controls.
➡ Verdict: Okay for ethical tactical entry
III. Final Stock Recommendation: HOLD with Tactical Entry Bias
✅ Recommendation: Tactical Buy near ₱0.52 kung mag-hold ang support at may calm volume
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below ₱0.48
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Partial trims at ₱0.60–₱0.63, full exit sa ₱0.70
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start with 1 board lot only, add if confirmed breakout above ₱0.56 next week
IV. 🔜 Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
🔹 Kung Tumama:
Kapag nabasag ang ₱0.56 with strong candle next week → add 1 more board lot
Target: ₱0.63–₱0.70 range
🔹 Kung Sumablay:
Kung bumalik sa ₱0.48–₱0.49, cut-loss na. Wag ipilit. Wait for fresh base.
🔹 Alert for Long-Term Traders:
Position building is allowed with caution. Huwag all-in agad. Confirm muna ang reversal.
V. 💰 Layered Accumulation Plan
Capital: ₱5,000 | 1 board lot = 1,000 shares
-
Layer 1 – Tactical Entry:
Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱0.52 = ₱520 -
Layer 2 – Confirmation Buy (Breakout):
Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱0.56 = ₱560 -
Layer 3 – Re-entry on Pullback After Breakout:
Buy 1,000 shares @ ₱0.53 = ₱530
Total: 3,000 shares | Max Cost: ₱1,610 | Reserve Cash: ₱3,390
VI. 🎯 Phased Exit Plan
-
Partial Exit 1 – Gap Fill:
Sell 1,000 shares @ ₱0.60 = ₱600 -
Partial Exit 2 – Key Resistance:
Sell 1,000 shares @ ₱0.63 = ₱630 -
Final Exit – Medium-Term Target:
Sell 1,000 shares @ ₱0.70 = ₱700
Estimated Gross Returns: ₱1,930 – ₱1,970
Strategy: Profit-lock on strength, re-enter only if breakout is strong.
Mainam Basahin: Batangueñong Trade Mindset Series
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Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
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