Micro Stock Trader Blog | Ang inyong Batangueñong retail stock trader
Nilalaman:
- Panimula
- Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
- Hatol sa Stock: Bibili ba Dadaan Lang?
- Next Move: Plano Pag Tumama o Sumablay
I. Panimula
Aba'y eto nanaman tayo sa pagsusuri ng Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA) – isa sa mga low-priced property plays sa Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE). Matapos ang matamlay na takbo noong Hunyo, aba'y tila gumalaw na ulit! Biglang may 11.34% na galaw pataas sa linggong ito. Pero tanong ng marami: "May aasahan ba sa ARA o trap lang 'to?"
Balikan muna natin ang mga detalye:
TRADE DETAILS
📅 Date: July 11, 2025
🏢 Stock: Araneta Properties, Inc. (ARA)
📈 Exchange: PSE
⏱️ Timeframe: Weekly
💰 Closing Price: ₱0.54
📈 High: ₱0.58
📉 Low: ₱0.50
📊 20-MA: ₱0.55
📉 200-MA: ₱0.94
Gaya ng una nating pagsusuri noong June 30, 2025, sinabi nating "Hold/Wait" pa rin at bantayan ang ₱0.48. Ngayong may bagong bar na may lakas, suriin natin kung nagbago na ba ang ihip ng hangin.
II. Stock Price Review Gamit and Hybrid 10-Step Strategy
Step 1: Identify Market State & Trend Context
Malinaw pa rin — long-term downtrend si ARA (200-MA @ ₱0.94), pero may hawak siyang sideways base simula March 2024. Ang magandang balita? Sa wakas, may malinis na green bar na lumabas ngayong linggo, at nakatawid na ulit sa 8-week MA (₱0.51).
➡ Verdict: Wait pa rin. Trend ay hindi pa nababali.
Step 2: Price Position & Retracement Zones
Yung closing na ₱0.54 ay near sa 20-MA, pero hindi pa rin lagpas. Medyo alanganin ang pwesto — 'ika nga, "pwedeng tumuloy, pwedeng bumalik." Kung ito ay reversal talaga, kailangan natin ng follow-through.
➡ Verdict: Wait – kulang pa sa tibay para sumabay.
Step 3: Power Bars, Breakout Signals & Volume Confirmation
May power candle ngayong linggo (green bar, wide range, malakas ang volume). Ayan ang gusto nating makita. Mukhang sinubukan niyang mag-breakout mula sa range sa ₱0.51.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Buy kung mag-follow-through next week.
Step 4: Entry Confirmation Based on Technical Signals
Entry confirmation ay kailangan ng second bullish bar above ₱0.55 next week. Kung mag-hold siya above ₱0.54 at may volume pa rin, pwede na nating simulan ang unang layer.
➡ Verdict: Watch for Confirmation
Step 5: Stop-Loss Positioning & Risk Management
Kung papasok tayo, dapat may tight stop-loss sa ₱0.48 — yan ang naging support sa daily chart. Pag bumagsak ulit dyan, trap lang ito.
➡ Verdict: BUY kung may follow-through, STOP sa ₱0.48
Step 6: Color Change Signals for Additional Confirmation
Green ang weekly candle, volume ay halos 3x average. Magandang color shift ito, pero isang linggo pa lang. Tuloy-tuloy dapat.
➡ Verdict: Positibo, pero bantayan pa.
Step 7: Profit-Taking Strategies with Tactical Exits
Kapag nagkataon na tuloy-tuloy ito, unang resistance ay ₱0.60, ₱0.65, tapos ₱0.70. Doon tayo magbawas.
➡ Verdict: May visible exit zones. Ready na kung pumutok.
Step 8: Potential Re-entry Zones
Kung mag-breakout sa ₱0.57–₱0.60 at bumalik sa ₱0.54, pwede tayong mag-reentry doon. Tight stop pa rin sa ₱0.50 below.
➡ Verdict: Watch ₱0.54–₱0.55 zone for re-entry.
Step 9: Tactical Position Adjustments
Pwede tayong gumamit ng 10% tactical entry sa current setup. Kung mag-confirm, dagdagan hanggang 50% allocation.
➡ Verdict: Tactical Entry Allowed
Step 10: Counter-Trend Trading Considerations
Hindi na ito counter-trend setup. Ang tanong ngayon ay: “Magta-trend reversal ba ‘to?”
➡ Verdict: Not counter-trend anymore. Reversal under watch.
III. Final Stock Recommendation
Final Trade Recommendation: Tactical Buy on Confirmation
✅ Recommendation: Tactical Buy sa ₱0.54–₱0.55 area kung may follow-through sa susunod na linggo.
✅ Risk Management: Use hard stop-loss sa ₱0.48 to cut early kung hindi matuloy ang breakout.
✅ Profit-Taking Strategy: Partial sell sa ₱0.60, ₱0.65 at ₱0.70.
✅ Position Size Strategy: Start small (10% allocation), add to 30–50% kung mag-hold above ₱0.57.
IV. Next Steps
🔹 Short-term traders → Puwede nang mag-test buy kung may follow-up candle. Bantayan ang ₱0.55 resistance.
🔹 Long-term investors → Maghintay pa rin ng base-building above ₱0.60 bago full commitment.
🔹 Existing holders → Hold and monitor ₱0.55 breakout. Prepare to sell above ₱0.60.
🚨 Final Thought: Reversal signs are forming, pero isang green bar ay hindi pa katumbas ng bagong trend. Hintayin ang follow-through bago magbuo ng lakas ng loob.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Paalala lang: Ang post na ito ay para sa informational purposes only at hindi dapat ituring na financial advice. Laging siguraduhing gumawa ng sarili mong research bago pumasok sa kahit anong trade o investment.
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